AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Edition of Monday, 15 March 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Wed 16 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Monday, 15 March 2027.

Science

Anthropic's model named best of 2026

OpenAI remained independent and valuation stayed below $2 trillion.

69% certain
lead market 69%next 11%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

Anthropic's AI system was judged the leading model at the close of October 2026. The assessment placed the company ahead of OpenAI and Google DeepMind. None of the three firms relocated their headquarters outside the United States or United Kingdom.

The ranking was compiled at the end of October, comparing the latest releases from the major labs. Anthropic's model received the highest rating among the contenders. Google DeepMind and OpenAI placed lower in the assessment.

Read the full report

World

Gadi Eizenkot became Israel's Prime Minister

Alexandru Nazare assumed Romania's premiership and Christopher Luxon remained New Zealand's Prime Minister

52% certain
lead market 52%next 29%1 venuesettles Thu 31 Dec

World

Israel struck Lebanon on September 26

Israel also closed its airspace by September 30 while maintaining its ceasefire with Iran.

80% certain
lead market 80%next 24%1 venuesettles Sat 26 Sept

World

Iran struck a U.S. base in September

It also rejected ending uranium enrichment and introduced navigation fees in the Strait of Hormuz.

83% certain
lead market 83%next 17%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Tue 3 Nov
  2. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No95%Wed 4 Nov
  3. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  4. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei79%Thu 31 Dec
  5. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  6. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party87%Tue 3 Nov
  7. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes54%Tue 1 Dec
  8. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro70%Sun 4 Oct
  9. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep56%Tue 3 Nov
  10. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No52%Tue 1 Dec
  11. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot52%Thu 31 Dec
  12. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  13. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes89%Sun 15 Nov
  14. Trump out as President before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  15. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3090%Thu 1 Oct
  16. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No89%Sun 15 Nov
  17. Israel closes its airspace by September 30?: Yes98%Thu 1 Oct
  18. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  19. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party58%Tue 3 Nov
  20. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No69%Tue 3 Nov
  21. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 479%Fri 1 Jan
  22. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes87%Wed 30 Sept
  23. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  24. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes63%Tue 3 Nov
  25. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Thu 31 Dec
  26. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  27. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  28. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  29. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  30. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No88%Thu 1 Oct
  31. Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Karen Bass65%Thu 31 Dec
  32. Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  33. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula50%Fri 2 Oct
  34. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  35. Next Prime Minister of Romania?: Alexandru Nazare65%Thu 31 Dec
  36. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  37. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Augusto Cury43%Sun 4 Oct
  38. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  39. Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?: No55%Wed 4 Nov
  40. Will California elect a Republican governor in 2026?: No96%Tue 3 Nov
  41. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  42. Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?: No87%Thu 1 Oct
  43. Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September?: No82%Thu 1 Oct
  44. Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)91%Sun 20 Sept
  45. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  46. Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?: Yes85%Sat 7 Nov
  47. United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–33943%Sun 20 Sept
  48. Will Xavier Becerra OR Tom Steyer win the 2026 California Governor election?: Yes97%Fri 6 Nov
  49. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  50. Will bitcoin rise to 85k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?: Yes87%Thu 1 Oct
  51. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic69%Fri 1 Jan
  52. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes75%Sat 31 Oct
  53. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  54. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes77%Mon 5 Oct
  55. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No85%Sun 1 Nov
  56. Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?: China53%Fri 1 Jan
  57. US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?: No95%Thu 31 Dec
  58. Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  59. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo81%Sun 4 Oct
  60. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%46%Sun 4 Oct
  61. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  62. São Paulo Governor Election Winner: Tarcísio de Freitas98%Sun 4 Oct
  63. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?: Yes88%Fri 1 Jan
  64. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes96%Sun 4 Oct
  65. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won: PL81%Sun 4 Oct
  66. Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  67. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No94%Sun 4 Oct
  68. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  69. Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?: No93%Tue 10 Nov
  70. Ceará Governor Election Winner: Ciro Gomes57%Sun 4 Oct
  71. Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  72. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Anthropic86%Sun 1 Nov
  73. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro82%Mon 5 Oct
  74. Will bitcoin go below 9.000$ at the end of this month?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  75. Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  76. Bahia Governor Election Winner: Jerônimo Rodrigues60%Sun 4 Oct
  77. Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner : Jorginho Mello95%Sun 4 Oct
  78. Will The Odyssey gross more than Spider-Man: Brand New Day at the domestic box office this weekend (Sept 18–20)?: Yes65%Sun 20 Sept
  79. Israel military action against Lebanon on September 26?: Yes80%Sat 26 Sept
  80. Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes96%Sun 4 Oct
  81. Will Israel attack Iraq in September 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  82. Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner: PL57%Sun 4 Oct
  83. Bitcoin price reaches 75k USD at any point before the end of the month: Yes91%Wed 30 Sept
  84. Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026?: Yes83%Thu 1 Oct
  85. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  86. Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)52%Sun 20 Sept
  87. Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?: Elif Eralp65%Sun 20 Sept
  88. Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout: 53-56%24%Sun 20 Sept
  89. Will United Russia get more seats in the next Russian Duma election than the one in 2021?: No60%Mon 21 Sept
  90. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Elections: SPD # of seats?: 26-2954%Sun 20 Sept
  91. Berlin State Elections: CDU # of seats?: 35-3933%Sun 20 Sept
  92. "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office: <50m24%Sun 20 Sept
  93. Berlin State Elections: Linke # of seats?: 40+38%Sun 20 Sept
  94. Berlin State Elections: AfD # of seats?: did not happen68%Sun 20 Sept
  95. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Elections: AfD # of seats?: 32-3552%Sun 20 Sept
  96. How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?: <3585%Sun 20 Sept
  97. Will "Resident Evil" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: Yes76%Mon 21 Sept
  98. Will "Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: Yes92%Mon 21 Sept
  99. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro50%Sun 4 Oct
  100. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No91%Wed 4 Nov
  101. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)75%Wed 30 Sept
  102. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No94%Sat 31 Oct
  103. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  104. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)90%Thu 31 Dec
  105. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane51%Sat 31 Oct
  106. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No54%Sat 3 Oct
  107. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes52%Wed 4 Nov
  108. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No95%Wed 18 Nov
  109. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes64%Tue 3 Nov
  110. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No65%Tue 3 Nov
  111. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms14%Sat 10 Oct
  112. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  113. Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes96%Wed 9 Dec
  114. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  115. Berlin State Election Winner: Linke64%Sun 20 Sept
  116. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  117. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro84%Thu 31 Dec
  118. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes76%Wed 4 Nov
  119. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  120. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  121. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  122. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No53%Wed 4 Nov
  123. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes92%Fri 2 Oct
  124. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli92%Sun 6 Dec
  125. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  126. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic93%Thu 1 Oct
  127. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  128. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  129. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  130. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes67%Tue 3 Nov
  131. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No80%Tue 3 Nov
  132. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  133. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  134. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  135. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  136. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.0%36%Wed 9 Dec
  137. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  138. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day93%Thu 31 Dec
  139. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  140. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  141. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)98%Wed 30 Sept
  142. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  143. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  144. WV-02 House Election Winner: Riley Moore (R)87%Tue 3 Nov
  145. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  146. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  147. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  148. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  149. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: Yes52%Tue 3 Nov
  150. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  151. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No86%Tue 3 Nov
  152. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  153. Fed Decision in October?: No change60%Wed 28 Oct
  154. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  155. Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?: Yes93%Thu 1 Oct
  156. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  157. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers31%Sat 31 Oct
  158. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No83%Thu 31 Dec
  159. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  160. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  161. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  162. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  163. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No65%Mon 30 Nov
  164. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No96%Sun 27 Sept
  165. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  166. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 16?: No91%Wed 16 Sept
  167. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  168. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  169. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  170. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Vancouver Whitecaps FC18%Sat 19 Dec
  171. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  172. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  173. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic54%Thu 31 Dec
  174. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  175. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  176. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No94%Wed 30 Sept
  177. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes92%Wed 14 Oct
  178. 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?: Yes90%Wed 16 Sept
  179. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  180. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes54%Mon 23 Nov
  181. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes89%Wed 30 Sept
  182. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No95%Mon 2 Nov
  183. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  184. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA68%Thu 31 Dec
  185. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  186. Trump out as President by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  187. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes72%Wed 16 Sept
  188. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202698%Fri 1 Jan
  189. Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?: Yes87%Wed 9 Dec
  190. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  191. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  192. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  193. Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026?: No83%Tue 29 Sept
  194. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  195. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No74%Fri 1 Jan
  196. Will a non-MF group be proved this month?: Yes83%Wed 28 Oct
  197. Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?: No100%Sun 20 Sept
  198. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No87%Sun 3 Jan
  199. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  200. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes69%Mon 30 Nov
  201. Quebec General Election Winner: PQ82%Mon 5 Oct
  202. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No71%Tue 6 Oct
  203. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  204. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  205. US recession by end of 2026?: No86%Sun 31 Jan
  206. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: No63%Fri 1 Jan
  207. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes86%Wed 14 Oct
  208. 🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️‍⚧️✨: No77%Mon 2 Nov
  209. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No65%Tue 13 Oct
  210. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  211. Iran full airspace closure by September 30?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  212. Will 0x876611867717dE6b6dff30da5CeF9feB620eE1ea REACH more than 100.00 USDC Base by September 21th 11:59 pm UTC: No51%Mon 21 Sept
  213. Will Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?: No98%Wed 30 Sept
  214. US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on September 21 2026?: Yes99%Mon 21 Sept
  215. "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" breaks the record for the biggest domestic lifetime gross of all time?: Yes100%Sun 4 Oct
  216. Will Seth Bodnar win Montanas Senate Election?: No91%Tue 3 Nov
  217. Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece: No67%Sat 3 Oct
  218. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No87%Thu 1 Oct
  219. Will Shohei Ohtani hit at least 43 home runs in 2026?: No99%Sun 27 Sept
  220. Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  221. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  222. MLB: Home Runs Leader: Kyle Schwarber84%Sun 11 Oct
  223. Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?: No68%Fri 6 Nov
  224. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes98%Sun 6 Dec
  225. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner: AfD82%Sun 20 Sept
  226. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  227. Elon Musk significantly backs a third party in Midterms?: No97%Thu 5 Nov
  228. Democrats win the 2026 Special Election for Senate in Florida?: No91%Tue 3 Nov
  229. Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?: No95%Mon 30 Nov
  230. Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  231. Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  232. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  233. Will Hasan Piker ever admit that he shocked his dog? [ within 1 year ] : No94%Wed 14 Oct
  234. Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  235. Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  236. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No75%Fri 1 Jan
  237. Will Aliens be discovered in the next three years?: No98%Sat 7 Nov
  238. El-Sayed comdemn or disavow Hasan Piker before midterms?: No75%Mon 2 Nov
  239. Will Democrats win the Texas Gubernatorial election?: No82%Tue 3 Nov
  240. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  241. Will Trump's hush money convictions be overturned due to the Supreme Court's grant of presidential immunity?: No89%Mon 30 Nov
  242. DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  243. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  244. Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  245. Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  246. Will the US government declare a new holiday in memory of Charlie Kirk?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  247. Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  248. US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  249. Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  250. Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026: No83%Sat 31 Oct
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.