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Printed Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Edition of Monday, 15 March 2027

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World

United Russia kept Duma majority despite seat losses

United Russia held a majority with 325, 339 seats while the Communist Party finished second.

24% certain
lead market 24%next 22%1 venuesettles Sun 20 Sept6 markets behind this

United Russia remained the largest bloc in the state Duma after the September 2026 Parliamentary election. The party secured between 325 and 339 seats, a number that did not exceed its 2021 tally. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation finished in second place, while the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia took third. Voter Turnout was recorded at roughly 53 to 56 percent, and the New People movement won fewer than 35 seats.

With a minimum of 325 seats, United Russia holds well over the 226 seats required for a majority. The upper bound of 339 seats would further solidify its control over legislative committees. The party's share represents a modest decline from the previous convocation, reflecting a loss of a handful of mandates. Nonetheless, its dominance ensures it can pass most bills without coalition partners.

The Communist Party of the Russian Federation claimed the second-largest faction in the Duma.

New People, a relatively New political formation, failed to cross the 35-seat threshold. Its reduced representation limits its influence in Parliamentary debates. No other party surpassed its modest tally.

Turnout was measured between 53 and 56 percent of eligible voters. This level of participation was only slightly above half of the electorate. The figures suggest a modest engagement compared with previous cycles. The election concluded on Sunday, 20 September, with results certified the following day.

Analysis

United Russia's seat range of 325 to 339 keeps it comfortably above the 226 seats needed for an absolute majority in the 450-member Duma. Even at the lower bound, the party can control the agenda, appoint committee chairs, and pass legislation without needing support from other factions. The fact that its seat count did not surpass the 2021 level indicates a slight erosion of its dominance, but the margin remains sufficient for continued policy continuity.

The Communist Party of the Russian Federation, now the second-largest group, and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, in third place, together form the main opposition bloc. Their combined numbers are far short of the majority, limiting their ability to block bills outright. However, as the largest non-ruling parties, they can influence debate, propose amendments, and use Parliamentary procedures to spotlight issues, especially where United Russia's vote is not unanimous.

New People's failure to reach 35 seats leaves it with a marginal presence in the Duma. This limited representation curtails its capacity to shape legislative outcomes or secure committee assignments.

Turnout of 53 to 56 percent indicates that Just over half of eligible voters participated in the election. Such a level of engagement, while modest, provides a baseline of legitimacy for the elected body but also suggests a degree of voter apathy or disengagement. The relatively low participation rate, combined with the ruling party's reduced seat count, creates uncertainty about the depth of public support for future policy initiatives and may affect how parties approach upcoming political contests.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF), 91% settles Sunday, 20 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–339, 43% settles Sunday, 20 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), 52% settles Sunday, 20 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout: 53-56%, 24% settles Sunday, 20 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will United Russia get more seats in the next Russian Duma election than the one in 2021?: No, 60% settles Monday, 21 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?: <35, 85% settles Sunday, 20 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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