AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Friday, 23 October 2026
Edition of Wednesday, 21 April 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Fri 23 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Wednesday, 21 April 2027.

Politics

Marine Le Pen won French Presidential election

Marine Le Pen won the presidency and David Lisnard missed the second round.

40% certain
lead market 40%next 15%1 venuesettles Mon 19 Apr

Marine Le Pen was declared the winner of the French Presidential election on Monday. David Lisnard did not advance to the second round of the same election. Emmanuel Macron remained president beyond 2026, as his term did not end before 2027.

The announcement confirmed Le Pen as the next head of state. The result ended the campaign cycle for all candidates.

Read the full report

Politics

Olivia Chow won Toronto mayoralty

Mark Sutcliffe secured Ottawa while Steven Del Duca took Vaughan.

53% certain
lead market 53%next 47%1 venuesettles Tue 27 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot48%Wed 28 Oct
  3. Texas Senate Election Winner: James Talarico (D)65%Wed 4 Nov
  4. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep67%Wed 4 Nov
  5. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party93%Wed 4 Nov
  6. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)95%Fri 1 Jan
  7. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  8. Maine Senate Election Winner: Troy Jackson (D)66%Wed 4 Nov
  9. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen40%Mon 19 Apr
  10. US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes84%Sat 31 Oct
  11. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party69%Wed 4 Nov
  12. Trump out as President before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  13. Ohio Senate Election Winner: Sherrod Brown (D)66%Wed 4 Nov
  14. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day89%Fri 8 Jan
  15. Iowa Senate Election Winner: Ashley Hinson (R)59%Wed 4 Nov
  16. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes88%Sat 31 Oct
  17. Wisconsin Governor Election Winner: David Crowley (D)81%Wed 4 Nov
  18. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%66%Fri 1 Jan
  19. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  20. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase73%Wed 9 Dec
  21. Nevada Governor Election Winner: Aaron Ford (D)63%Wed 4 Nov
  22. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  23. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  24. New Hampshire Senate Election Winner: Chris Pappas (D)91%Wed 4 Nov
  25. Michigan Governor Election Winner: Jocelyn Benson (D)91%Wed 4 Nov
  26. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Yashar70%Wed 28 Oct
  27. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  28. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  29. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  30. Iowa Governor Election Winner: Rob Sand (D)85%Wed 4 Nov
  31. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  32. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No93%Mon 4 Jan
  33. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  34. Georgia Senate Election Winner: Jon Ossoff (D) 95%Wed 4 Nov
  35. Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?: No97%Sun 1 Nov
  36. North Carolina Senate Election Winner: Roy Cooper (D)94%Wed 4 Nov
  37. US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?: Yes74%Wed 4 Nov
  38. Arizona Governor Election Winner: Katie Hobbs (D)91%Wed 4 Nov
  39. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  40. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  41. Ohio Governor Election Winner: Amy Acton (D)83%Wed 4 Nov
  42. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 20-2442%Wed 28 Oct
  43. Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  44. Georgia Governor Election Winner: Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)60%Wed 4 Nov
  45. Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?: No80%Fri 1 Jan
  46. US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?: No63%Fri 1 Jan
  47. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  48. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  49. Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No61%Fri 1 Jan
  50. US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  51. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?: No93%Sat 31 Oct
  52. Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?: 280-29937%Fri 23 Oct
  53. Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  54. StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  55. How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 2 (50 bps)69%Thu 31 Dec
  56. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  57. Alaska Governor Election Winner : Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins89%Wed 4 Nov
  58. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?: No98%Thu 31 Dec
  59. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No77%Wed 6 Jan
  60. Toronto Mayoral Election Winner: Olivia Chow53%Tue 27 Oct
  61. US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes94%Sat 31 Oct
  62. [ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?: No90%Thu 31 Dec
  63. Fed Decision in January?: No change68%Thu 28 Jan
  64. Idaho Senate Election Winner: Jim Risch (R)96%Wed 4 Nov
  65. Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  66. Minnesota Senate Election Winner: Peggy Flanagan (D)87%Wed 4 Nov
  67. Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  68. Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  69. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes93%Sun 15 Nov
  70. Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday52%Mon 1 Feb
  71. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  72. Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?: Yes66%Fri 1 Jan
  73. Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  74. Fed decisions (Sep–Dec): Hike–Pause–Hike74%Wed 9 Dec
  75. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No97%Fri 29 Jan
  76. Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  77. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  78. StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  79. Bank of England decision in November?: 25 bps increase96%Thu 5 Nov
  80. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?: No97%Sun 1 Nov
  81. Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  82. Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  83. Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?: No91%Sun 1 Nov
  84. Will Israel election happen as scheduled?: Yes92%Wed 28 Oct
  85. Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?: No100%Fri 29 Jan
  86. Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  87. Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  88. Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  89. Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  90. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?: Yes82%Thu 31 Dec
  91. Bank of Japan Decision in October?: No change98%Fri 30 Oct
  92. Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner: Mark Sutcliffe85%Tue 27 Oct
  93. Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  94. Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place: Together94%Wed 28 Oct
  95. Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?: Yes65%Sat 31 Oct
  96. Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No85%Mon 19 Apr
  97. Billboard #1 Artist 2026: Morgan Wallen87%Thu 1 Apr
  98. Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  99. Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November: 25 bps increase67%Wed 4 Nov
  100. #1 Searched Movie on Google 2026?: Obsession42%Thu 31 Dec
  101. Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?: No87%Sat 31 Oct
  102. Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?: No86%Thu 31 Dec
  103. Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.41% in October?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  104. Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday53%Mon 1 Feb
  105. Will Tim Walz Finish his term as Governor of Minnesota?: Yes96%Mon 4 Jan
  106. Nigerian Presidential Election Winner: Bola Tinubu73%Sun 17 Jan
  107. Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  108. Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?: 25 bps increase82%Wed 28 Oct
  109. Argentina Monthly Inflation - October: 1.6 to 1.8%40%Thu 12 Nov
  110. Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of October?: OpenAI93%Sat 31 Oct
  111. US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?: No91%Sun 1 Nov
  112. UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?: 0.6–0.7%67%Fri 13 Nov
  113. Israel election: will Likud lose seats?: Yes98%Wed 28 Oct
  114. Israeli Legislative Election: 2nd Place: Likud67%Wed 28 Oct
  115. Mississauga Mayoral Election Winner: Bonnie Crombie55%Tue 27 Oct
  116. No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?: No change98%Tue 27 Oct
  117. "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office: 22m-25m46%Sun 25 Oct
  118. Vaughan, ON Mayoral Election Winner: Steven Del Duca99%Tue 27 Oct
  119. Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?: 0.0%–0.8%23%Mon 16 Nov
  120. Oshawa, ON Mayoral Election Winner: Tito-Dante Marimpietri74%Tue 27 Oct
  121. Markham, ON Mayoral Election Winner: Frank Scarpitti97%Tue 27 Oct
  122. Second-best AI Agent Lab end of October?: OpenAI99%Sat 31 Oct
  123. Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM): 0.0 to 0.1%35%Fri 30 Oct
  124. Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?: No87%Sat 31 Oct
  125. How many Israeli elections before government formed?: 162%Tue 27 Oct
  126. Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?: No86%Wed 28 Oct
  127. "Ali G: Who Iz I?" Opening Weekend Box Office: <2M96%Sun 25 Oct
  128. "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office: 14m-16m40%Sun 25 Oct
  129. Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in October?: No68%Sun 1 Nov
  130. Stratford, ON Mayoral Election Winner: Martin Ritsma99%Tue 27 Oct
  131. Niagara-on-the-Lake, ON Mayoral Election Winner: Erwin Wiens61%Tue 27 Oct
  132. Israeli election results in a hung parliament?: No65%Tue 27 Oct
  133. OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?: $1.30T+56%Sat 31 Oct
  134. Which company has the best Image Edit AI end of October?: OpenAI99%Sun 1 Nov
  135. Israel Election: Yisrael Beiteinu vote share?: 6-7%27%Tue 27 Oct
  136. Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 20 - October 27, 2026?: 200+75%Tue 27 Oct
  137. October Inflation US - Monthly: 0.3%39%Wed 11 Nov
  138. Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?: OpenAI96%Sat 31 Oct
  139. October Inflation US - Annual: 3.7%83%Wed 11 Nov
  140. October Inflation China - Annual: 0.9% to 1.0%40%Mon 9 Nov
  141. "Klara and the Sun" Opening Weekend Box Office: <2M97%Sun 25 Oct
  142. Has OpenAI made a cryptanalytic breakthrough?: No91%Sat 7 Nov
  143. By Oct 31, 2026, will openai.com say its agents accessed a U.S. federal government system without authorization?: No90%Sat 31 Oct
  144. Core PCE YoY - September 2026: 3.1%44%Thu 29 Oct
  145. Core PCE MoM - September 2026: 0.3%64%Thu 29 Oct
  146. "Street Fighter" 2nd Weekend Box Office: 8-11M86%Sun 25 Oct
  147. Vertiv (VRT) Q3 adjusted operating margin?: 24% to 26%91%Wed 28 Oct
  148. Ted Cruz # posts October 20 - October 27, 2026?: 160-17953%Tue 27 Oct
  149. Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 global unit case volume growth?: 4.5% to 5.5%34%Tue 27 Oct
  150. Zelenskyy # posts October 20 - October 27, 2026?: 80-9976%Tue 27 Oct
  151. "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office: 11M+99%Sun 25 Oct
  152. Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis)?: 10.5% to 11.5%35%Thu 29 Oct
  153. "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office (Higher Brackets): 21M+83%Sun 25 Oct
  154. Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 Azure revenue growth (constant currency)?: 46% to 48%59%Wed 28 Oct
  155. Visa (V) Q4 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars)?: 13.5% to 14.5%37%Tue 27 Oct
  156. Amphenol (APH) Q3 organic sales growth?: 32% to 36%42%Wed 28 Oct
  157. Fed Decision in October?: No change93%Thu 29 Oct
  158. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane69%Tue 27 Oct
  159. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  160. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  161. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  162. Michigan Senate Election Winner: Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%Wed 4 Nov
  163. VA-05 House Election Winner: John McGuire (R)87%Wed 4 Nov
  164. Next Prime Minister of Serbia?: Aleksandar Vučić71%Sun 25 Oct
  165. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei86%Thu 31 Dec
  166. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  167. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  168. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  169. Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?: No97%Thu 31 Dec
  170. US recession by end of 2026?: No94%Sun 31 Jan
  171. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  172. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro73%Sun 25 Oct
  173. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No78%Wed 4 Nov
  174. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory: Flávio Bolsonaro <4%40%Mon 26 Oct
  175. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  176. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro77%Thu 31 Dec
  177. Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner: Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia71%Sun 25 Oct
  178. Another Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes79%Thu 10 Dec
  179. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  180. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  181. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli97%Sun 6 Dec
  182. OpenAI IPO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  183. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  184. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  185. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No83%Sun 1 Nov
  186. Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?: No Hormuz Agreement98%Wed 4 Nov
  187. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Google82%Sat 31 Oct
  188. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  189. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  190. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  191. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  192. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  193. TX-28 House Election Margin of Victory: Democrat 9-12%55%Wed 4 Nov
  194. US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  195. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  196. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No83%Tue 5 Jan
  197. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  198. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  199. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No80%Fri 1 Jan
  200. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No97%Wed 18 Nov
  201. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  202. Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?: No90%Sun 1 Nov
  203. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  204. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No66%Fri 1 Jan
  205. Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?: Oil ≥ $85; D Senate64%Wed 4 Nov
  206. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  207. Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?: No Hormuz Agreement90%Wed 4 Nov
  208. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: SpaceX73%Thu 31 Dec
  209. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  210. Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  211. Alaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola75%Wed 4 Nov
  212. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 497%Fri 1 Jan
  213. Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?: No100%Sun 1 Nov
  214. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No80%Fri 1 Jan
  215. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  216. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA62%Fri 1 Jan
  217. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No96%Mon 30 Nov
  218. Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October?: No90%Sun 1 Nov
  219. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sat 31 Oct
  220. Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?: No100%Sun 1 Nov
  221. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?: No89%Sun 1 Nov
  222. All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  223. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  224. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  225. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  226. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: San Francisco 49ers15%Thu 1 Apr
  227. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  228. Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Chiang Wan-an64%Sun 29 Nov
  229. Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?: No90%Sun 1 Nov
  230. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  231. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: Yes61%Fri 1 Jan
  232. Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova88%Mon 26 Oct
  233. Kansas Senate Election Winner: Roger Marshall (R)63%Wed 4 Nov
  234. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202699%Fri 1 Jan
  235. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic46%Thu 31 Dec
  236. South Carolina Senate Election Winner: Darline Graham Nordone (R)82%Wed 4 Nov
  237. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  238. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  239. US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?: No57%Mon 30 Nov
  240. Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?: No97%Thu 31 Dec
  241. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  242. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  243. Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  244. Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?: Yes84%Fri 1 Jan
  245. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Vancouver Whitecaps FC29%Fri 1 Jan
  246. Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  247. Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?: No meeting before 202789%Fri 1 Jan
  248. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No87%Thu 31 Dec
  249. Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Iotova 10-20%60%Sun 25 Oct
  250. Nebraska Senate Election Winner : Pete Ricketts (R)73%Wed 4 Nov
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.