AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Thursday, 3 September 2026
Edition of Tuesday, 2 March 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Thu 3 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Tuesday, 2 March 2027.

Economics

Fed ended 2026 with rates at 4.0% after single Hike

The central bank made no cuts and kept the lower bound above 2.75%.

40% certain
lead market 40%next 23%1 venuesettles Wed 9 Dec

The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate once in 2026 and left it unchanged for the rest of the year. The increase brought the target rate to 4.0 percent by December. No subsequent cuts were announced through the final meeting.

The Hike was implemented during the mid-year meeting, after which the Fed held policy steady in July, August and September. The October meeting recorded no change, confirming the pause after the earlier increase. The decision pattern for the July-October period was classified as "Other" rather than a series of pauses.

Read the full report

World

Lula re-elected president of Brazil

Latvia's as party won the Parliamentary election and Israel's government remained intact.

60% certain
lead market 60%next 32%1 venuesettles Fri 2 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Tue 3 Nov
  2. Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?: No99%Fri 6 Nov
  3. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No89%Wed 4 Nov
  4. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)69%Wed 30 Sept
  5. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)86%Thu 31 Dec
  6. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei78%Thu 31 Dec
  7. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party89%Tue 3 Nov
  8. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes89%Sun 15 Nov
  9. Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026?: Yes95%Sun 1 Nov
  10. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  11. Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Magdalena Andersson73%Sun 13 Sept
  12. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep52%Tue 3 Nov
  13. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)96%Wed 30 Sept
  14. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day90%Thu 31 Dec
  15. Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes64%Wed 9 Dec
  16. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No98%Wed 30 Sept
  17. Berlin State Election Winner: Linke46%Sun 20 Sept
  18. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No73%Tue 3 Nov
  19. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  20. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.0%40%Wed 9 Dec
  21. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party51%Tue 3 Nov
  22. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  23. 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis): Carlos Alcaraz37%Sun 13 Sept
  24. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No91%Thu 1 Oct
  25. Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time?: Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  26. Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)97%Sun 13 Sept
  27. Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026: Yes86%Sun 6 Sept
  28. CA-38 House Election Winner: Democratic Party88%Tue 3 Nov
  29. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  30. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  31. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  32. SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes93%Sun 6 Sept
  33. Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Karen Bass65%Thu 31 Dec
  34. Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026: No85%Sun 6 Sept
  35. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  36. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula60%Fri 2 Oct
  37. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  38. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes85%Wed 30 Sept
  39. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  40. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  41. Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?: Yes98%Fri 16 Oct
  42. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  43. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  44. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  45. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  46. Fed Decision in October?: No change69%Wed 28 Oct
  47. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner: AfD78%Sun 20 Sept
  48. US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  49. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner: did not happen100%Sun 6 Sept
  50. Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?: No60%Wed 9 Dec
  51. Liberals still in Riksdag after next election?: No82%Sat 12 Sept
  52. Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?: No63%Mon 21 Sept
  53. Top Spotify Artist 2026: Bad Bunny83%Thu 31 Dec
  54. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  55. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  56. Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  57. Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)87%Sun 20 Sept
  58. Fed decisions (Jul–Oct): Other60%Wed 28 Oct
  59. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?: No97%Thu 31 Dec
  60. Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election?: Yes88%Sat 12 Sept
  61. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic67%Fri 1 Jan
  62. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  63. Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?: No99%Sun 20 Sept
  64. Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?: No99%Thu 8 Oct
  65. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  66. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No81%Sun 1 Nov
  67. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No91%Thu 1 Oct
  68. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?: Yes90%Fri 1 Jan
  69. Israel closes its airspace by September 30?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  70. Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?: Yes53%Wed 9 Dec
  71. Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?: Yes63%Sun 20 Sept
  72. Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?: No93%Tue 10 Nov
  73. United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–33937%Sun 20 Sept
  74. Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  75. Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?: No86%Thu 1 Oct
  76. Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday55%Fri 1 Jan
  77. Fed Decision in December?: No change44%Wed 9 Dec
  78. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?: No91%Thu 31 Dec
  79. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  80. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No89%Fri 8 Jan
  81. Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September?: No85%Thu 1 Oct
  82. Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: No61%Thu 24 Sept
  83. Counter-Strike: K27 vs Nemiga (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs: K27100%Thu 3 Sept
  84. Bank of Russia decision in September?: No Change61%Fri 11 Sept
  85. Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?: Yes80%Thu 1 Oct
  86. Counter-Strike: magic vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs: magic95%Thu 3 Sept
  87. Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner: AS84%Sat 3 Oct
  88. Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?: No60%Mon 21 Sept
  89. Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?: 20%+50%Sun 13 Sept
  90. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  91. Counter-Strike: MIBR vs EYEBALLERS - Map 1 Winner: MIBR82%Thu 3 Sept
  92. Counter-Strike: MIBR vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs: MIBR77%Thu 3 Sept
  93. Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs HOTU (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs: HOTU100%Thu 3 Sept
  94. Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: Yes82%Thu 1 Oct
  95. Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner: Fatima Shaban91%Thu 3 Sept
  96. Will the Israeli government significantly undermine the next election?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  97. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: SPD Vote Share?: 5-7%46%Sun 6 Sept
  98. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?: 5-7%58%Sun 6 Sept
  99. Will the AfD win more than 40% of the vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes80%Mon 7 Sept
  100. Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?: Sven Schulze72%Sun 6 Sept
  101. US Open ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Francisco Cerundolo: Francisco Cerundolo61%Wed 9 Sept
  102. OpenAI's Astra released on...?: September 381%Thu 3 Sept
  103. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Provincial By-Election Winner: Jeff Beattie57%Thu 3 Sept
  104. Osnabrück Mayoral Election Winner: Katharina Pötter81%Sun 13 Sept
  105. Best AI model on September 7?: Other97%Mon 7 Sept
  106. Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Playoffs: Team Falcons60%Fri 4 Sept
  107. Will Dan McKee be renominated for Governor of Rhode Island in 2026?: No95%Tue 8 Sept
  108. Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)48%Sun 20 Sept
  109. Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner: Elaine Pelino95%Tue 8 Sept
  110. Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: No78%Thu 24 Sept
  111. US Open ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Mattia Bellucci: Taylor Fritz90%Wed 9 Sept
  112. Rhode Island Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Helena Foulkes99%Tue 8 Sept
  113. Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  114. Will United Russia get more seats in the next Russian Duma election than the one in 2021?: No60%Mon 21 Sept
  115. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Sweden Democrats (SD)77%Sun 13 Sept
  116. Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Rare Atom (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Asian Qualifier Playoffs: TYLOO51%Thu 3 Sept
  117. US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska: Iga Swiatek98%Wed 9 Sept
  118. Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October: No81%Wed 30 Sept
  119. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Moderate Party (M)72%Sun 13 Sept
  120. US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Dalibor Svrcina: Luciano Darderi57%Wed 9 Sept
  121. US Open WTA: Qinwen Zheng vs Yulia Putintseva: Qinwen Zheng71%Wed 9 Sept
  122. Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout: 53-56%30%Sun 20 Sept
  123. Rhode Island Attorney General Democratic Primary Winner: Kim Ahern86%Wed 9 Sept
  124. Bryansk Oblast Gubernatorial Election Winner: Yegor Kovalchuk93%Sun 20 Sept
  125. Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs ASTRAL (BO3) - Logitech G Play Connect Closed Qualifier Playoffs: Sashi Esport100%Thu 3 Sept
  126. US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo: Alejandro Tabilo61%Wed 9 Sept
  127. Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?: David Morales83%Wed 9 Sept
  128. Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs: Nuclear TigeRES53%Thu 3 Sept
  129. Bitcoin price reaches 80k USD by the end of September: Yes87%Wed 30 Sept
  130. Counter-Strike: B8 vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs: B856%Thu 3 Sept
  131. Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Sinners (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4: Closed Qualifier Playoffs: FOKUS60%Thu 3 Sept
  132. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Linke Vote Share?: 9-12%46%Sun 6 Sept
  133. Will the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote?: No95%Sun 27 Sept
  134. Hannover Mayoral Election Winner: Belit Onay77%Sun 13 Sept
  135. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Vote Share?: 8-11%61%Sun 20 Sept
  136. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Linke73%Sun 20 Sept
  137. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Vote Share?: 20-23%41%Sun 6 Sept
  138. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 42%?: Over55%Sun 6 Sept
  139. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?: 39-42%43%Sun 6 Sept
  140. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Over/Under 5%?: Over71%Sun 6 Sept
  141. Will Alexander Zverev OR Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: Yes59%Thu 24 Sept
  142. Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  143. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Linke Over/Under 12%?: Under54%Sun 6 Sept
  144. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to Grüne or BSW?: Grüne93%Sun 6 Sept
  145. Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary Winner: Raymond McKay96%Tue 8 Sept
  146. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: BSW Vote Share?: did not happen75%Sun 6 Sept
  147. York—Simcoe Provincial By-Election Winner: Susan Lahey99%Thu 3 Sept
  148. Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election?: did not happen85%Sun 6 Sept
  149. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?: Under59%Sun 6 Sept
  150. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or BSW?: SPD93%Sun 6 Sept
  151. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?: Grüne54%Sun 6 Sept
  152. Fed Decision in September?: No change60%Wed 16 Sept
  153. Brazil Presidential Election: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva51%Sun 4 Oct
  154. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No93%Wed 4 Nov
  155. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  156. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  157. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane56%Sat 31 Oct
  158. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: No51%Wed 4 Nov
  159. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No96%Wed 18 Nov
  160. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: Yes55%Sat 3 Oct
  161. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: No52%Tue 1 Dec
  162. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes62%Tue 3 Nov
  163. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No64%Tue 3 Nov
  164. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  165. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot47%Thu 31 Dec
  166. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: Yes50%Tue 1 Dec
  167. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Yulia Navalnaya22%Sat 10 Oct
  168. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro82%Sun 4 Oct
  169. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No89%Sun 15 Nov
  170. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  171. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  172. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro80%Thu 31 Dec
  173. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  174. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli70%Sun 6 Dec
  175. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  176. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3088%Thu 1 Oct
  177. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  178. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: Yes51%Wed 4 Nov
  179. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  180. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes92%Fri 2 Oct
  181. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  182. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes73%Wed 4 Nov
  183. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  184. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes67%Tue 3 Nov
  185. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No80%Tue 3 Nov
  186. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  187. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes94%Wed 30 Sept
  188. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  189. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No98%Thu 15 Oct
  190. Virginia redistricting: Will the Charlottesville district be blue?: No96%Wed 4 Nov
  191. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  192. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  193. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes63%Tue 3 Nov
  194. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes88%Sun 6 Dec
  195. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No97%Fri 2 Oct
  196. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  197. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 3?: Yes91%Thu 3 Sept
  198. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  199. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: No51%Tue 3 Nov
  200. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  201. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No85%Tue 3 Nov
  202. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers29%Sat 31 Oct
  203. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  204. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No69%Mon 30 Nov
  205. Will Bitcoin be higher a month from now?: Yes99%Sat 5 Sept
  206. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  207. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  208. "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avatar: The Way of Water"? (>2.3B worldwide): Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  209. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Thu 31 Dec
  210. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  211. Will GPT 6 be released by September 15th?: Yes92%Mon 14 Sept
  212. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  213. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  214. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No96%Sun 27 Sept
  215. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  216. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  217. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  218. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  219. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  220. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  221. Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?: Yes88%Thu 1 Oct
  222. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  223. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No73%Thu 31 Dec
  224. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic59%Thu 31 Dec
  225. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  226. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  227. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  228. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes83%Wed 14 Oct
  229. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: No53%Mon 23 Nov
  230. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  231. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  232. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  233. Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?: No88%Wed 30 Sept
  234. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  235. Will Astra solve Elliot Glazer's prototype FrontierMath problem?: Yes98%Wed 30 Sept
  236. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes65%Mon 30 Nov
  237. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes74%Wed 16 Sept
  238. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  239. In a true free market. Prices would naturally fall . In other words deflation: Yes55%Sat 5 Sept
  240. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA76%Thu 31 Dec
  241. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes86%Wed 14 Oct
  242. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No65%Tue 13 Oct
  243. Will Seth Bodnar win Montanas Senate Election?: No91%Tue 3 Nov
  244. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No71%Tue 6 Oct
  245. Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?: No71%Fri 6 Nov
  246. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202692%Fri 1 Jan
  247. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  248. Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece: No67%Sat 3 Oct
  249. "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" breaks the record for the biggest domestic lifetime gross of all time?: Yes97%Sun 4 Oct
  250. 🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️‍⚧️✨: No63%Mon 2 Nov
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.