AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Thursday, 3 September 2026
Edition of Tuesday, 2 March 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Thu 3 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Tuesday, 2 March 2027.

World

United States remained in NATO throughout 2026

Washington kept its NATO membership and avoided direct conflict with Russia in 2026.

94% certain
lead market 94%next 6%1 venuesettles Mon 2 Nov3 markets behind this

The United States stayed in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization throughout 2026. It did not withdraw from the alliance at any point before 2027. Moreover, the United States did not engage in a direct military clash with Russia during the year.

No formal steps toward withdrawal were taken during 2026. The alliance membership remained unchanged through the calendar year.

The prospect of a U.S., Russia military confrontation was also resolved on Friday, 1 January 2027, with a determination that no clash occurred by 31 December 2026. Throughout the year, U.S. forces did not engage Russian troops in combat. Tensions did not translate into direct fighting.

A separate inquiry addressed whether former President Trump would announce a NATO pullout before the midterm elections. No such announcement was made ahead of the November vote.

Analysis

By retaining its NATO membership, the United States preserved the core of the post-World War II security architecture in Europe. The alliance's collective defence promise continued to shape strategic calculations for member states, limiting the space for unilateral security moves and reducing incentives for escalation with Russia.

Without a high-profile withdrawal claim, the political debate focused on other issues, and the party's foreign-policy platform remained anchored in existing transatlantic commitments.

Future uncertainty remains about how the United States will navigate its relationship with Russia and the alliance in the coming years. Shifts in leadership, external crises, or changes in Russian posture could test the durability of the 2026 status quo, leaving policymakers to monitor developments closely.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No, 98% settles Friday, 1 January 2027 · polymarket · see the market
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No, 95% settles Friday, 1 January 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?: No, 94% settles Monday, 2 November 2026 · manifold · see the market
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