55%Spider-Man: Brand New Day topped 2026 box office85%Mojtaba Khamenei remained Iran's leader through 202653%Anthropic's model ranked best AI system in September65%None of four new crypto projects hit valuation targets on day one45%Fed ended 2026 with policy rate at 4.25%82%Ukraine remained outside NATO and war continued without ceasefire in 202696%China did not invade Taiwan in 202693%Putin, Zelenskyy and Luxon remained in office by year-end56%Democrats secured majorities in house and senate48%ECB left rates unchanged as Eurozone grew modestly60%Olivia Chow won Toronto mayoralty in 2026 municipal elections37%Gadi Eizenkot became Prime Minister after Yashar's surprise win

AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Wednesday, 30 September 2026
Edition of Monday, 29 March 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Wed 30 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Monday, 29 March 2027.

Culture

Spider-Man: Brand New Day topped 2026 box office

It also delivered the biggest opening weekend of any 2026 release.

55% certain
lead market 55%next 44%1 venuesettles Mon 1 Feb

Spider-Man: Brand New Day emerged as 2026's top-grossing film and posted the year's largest opening weekend. The achievement was confirmed on Monday 1 February when opening-weekend data were released. A later tally on Friday 8 January named the film the Highest domestic earner of the year.

The domestic box-office ranking placed Spider-Man: Brand New Day ahead of every other release in 2026. The confirmation arrived on Friday 8 January after final earnings were compiled. No other title matched its total by the end of the calendar year.

Read the full report

World

China did not invade Taiwan in 2026

It also avoided blockading the island and any military clash through 2026.

96% certain
lead market 96%next 4%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

Politics

PL won most Senate seats and Chamber of Deputies

The Liberal Party secured the top spot in both chambers, while Bia Kicis placed second in the Federal District Senate race.

62% certain
lead market 62%next 16%1 venuesettles Mon 5 Oct

Science

OpenAI missed top LiveBench ranking

The firm also failed to secure the best AI Agent slot and announced no new Millennium Prize solution.

93% certain
lead market 93%next 7%1 venuesettles Wed 30 Sept

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No94%Sat 31 Oct
  3. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot46%Wed 28 Oct
  4. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  5. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)95%Fri 1 Jan
  6. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party92%Wed 4 Nov
  7. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No65%Tue 1 Dec
  8. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  9. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes62%Tue 1 Dec
  10. Fed Decision in October?: No change55%Thu 29 Oct
  11. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms27%Sat 10 Oct
  12. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep62%Wed 4 Nov
  13. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei89%Thu 31 Dec
  14. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes94%Sun 15 Nov
  15. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  16. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No94%Sun 15 Nov
  17. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro72%Mon 5 Oct
  18. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  19. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No98%Tue 3 Nov
  20. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party63%Wed 4 Nov
  21. VA-05 House Election Winner: John McGuire (R)90%Wed 4 Nov
  22. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  23. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  24. Trump out as President by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  25. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  26. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic99%Wed 30 Sept
  27. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  28. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  29. Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  30. Bitcoin $87,500 in September 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  31. Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  32. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  33. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes61%Tue 3 Nov
  34. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  35. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day93%Fri 8 Jan
  36. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  37. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  38. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  39. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  40. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  41. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  42. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%45%Fri 1 Jan
  43. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No82%Tue 5 Jan
  44. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  45. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  46. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  47. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  48. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  49. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  50. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  51. Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?: No94%Wed 30 Sept
  52. Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?: Yes56%Wed 4 Nov
  53. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  54. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  55. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  56. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Renan Santos51%Mon 5 Oct
  57. US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on October 1st 2026?: Yes99%Thu 1 Oct
  58. US Average Gas Price Is $4.600 or more on any day in September 2026?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  59. OR-06 House Election Margin of Victory: Democrat 25-30%57%Wed 4 Nov
  60. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  61. Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  62. Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?: Yes93%Sat 7 Nov
  63. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No95%Sat 31 Oct
  64. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  65. Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  66. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes71%Wed 28 Oct
  67. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  68. Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  69. US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on October 1 2026?: Yes98%Thu 1 Oct
  70. Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?: No73%Fri 1 Jan
  71. Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No65%Fri 1 Jan
  72. Iran full airspace closure by September 30?: No99%Tue 26 Jan
  73. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  74. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No89%Thu 31 Dec
  75. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  76. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No85%Sun 1 Nov
  77. Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  78. Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  79. Will Anthropic’s IPO S-1 be public by 16 October 2026?: Yes53%Thu 15 Oct
  80. Bitcoin price reaches 75k USD at any point before the end of the month: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  81. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  82. StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  83. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 30?: Yes96%Wed 30 Sept
  84. Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  85. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%55%Mon 5 Oct
  86. Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  87. Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  88. US airstrikes Yemen in September?: No94%Wed 30 Sept
  89. Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner: Lula74%Mon 5 Oct
  90. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Yashar57%Wed 28 Oct
  91. São Paulo Governor Election Winner: Tarcísio de Freitas99%Mon 5 Oct
  92. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo94%Mon 5 Oct
  93. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  94. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  95. Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos)84%Sun 4 Oct
  96. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  97. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  98. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won: PL99%Mon 5 Oct
  99. Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day55%Mon 1 Feb
  100. Did OpenAI just solve hodge??: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  101. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes81%Mon 5 Oct
  102. Ceará Governor Election Winner: Elmano de Freitas66%Mon 5 Oct
  103. Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  104. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 1?: Yes92%Thu 1 Oct
  105. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro82%Mon 5 Oct
  106. Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  107. Israel and Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations before Israel's elections?: No97%Mon 26 Oct
  108. ECB Interest Rates: October 2026: No change79%Fri 30 Oct
  109. Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner: Pete Fry62%Sun 18 Oct
  110. Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  111. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 20-2437%Wed 28 Oct
  112. Will bitcoin go below 9.000$ at the end of this month?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  113. Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?: Yes99%Fri 2 Oct
  114. Bahia Governor Election Winner: Jerônimo Rodrigues58%Mon 5 Oct
  115. Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 September 28-October 4?: No89%Mon 5 Oct
  116. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share?: 2-4%43%Sun 4 Oct
  117. Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco78%Mon 5 Oct
  118. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?: 39%+86%Sun 4 Oct
  119. Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 28-October 4?: No88%Mon 5 Oct
  120. Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?: No100%Tue 27 Oct
  121. Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place: Bia Kicis80%Mon 5 Oct
  122. Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner: PL65%Mon 5 Oct
  123. Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner : Jorginho Mello99%Mon 5 Oct
  124. São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place: Guilherme Derrite70%Mon 5 Oct
  125. Will the date for the next Israeli legislative election be postponed?: No98%Tue 27 Oct
  126. What price will Bitcoin hit in September 2026?: Reach $85,00038%Thu 1 Oct
  127. Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  128. São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place: André do Prado62%Mon 5 Oct
  129. Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner: Mark Sutcliffe89%Tue 27 Oct
  130. Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes95%Wed 14 Oct
  131. September Inflation US - Annual: 3.6%52%Thu 15 Oct
  132. Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?: did not happen98%Thu 1 Oct
  133. Toronto Mayoral Election Winner: Olivia Chow88%Tue 27 Oct
  134. How many Israeli elections before government formed?: 163%Tue 27 Oct
  135. Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026: 0.8-1.1%48%Fri 30 Oct
  136. Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?: 1.0-1.2%59%Fri 30 Oct
  137. Will the Trump administration successfully overturn the Anthropic injunction on appeal by September 30, 2026?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  138. Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics?: Yes86%Sat 17 Oct
  139. Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  140. "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office: <17m82%Sun 4 Oct
  141. Surrey Mayoral Election: Brenda Locke75%Sun 18 Oct
  142. Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Zac de Vries63%Sun 18 Oct
  143. September Inflation US - Monthly: 0.6%50%Thu 15 Oct
  144. Winnipeg Mayoral Election: Scott Gillingham61%Thu 29 Oct
  145. Richmond Mayoral Election: Rob Howard60%Sun 18 Oct
  146. Israel election: will Likud lose seats?: Yes94%Wed 28 Oct
  147. Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 300k?: No99%Fri 2 Oct
  148. Will "Digger" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: No94%Mon 5 Oct
  149. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?: did not happen99%Wed 30 Sept
  150. Kamloops, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Mike O'Reilly66%Sun 18 Oct
  151. Markham, ON Mayoral Election Winner: Frank Scarpitti91%Tue 27 Oct
  152. Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 150k?: Yes91%Fri 2 Oct
  153. Will the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature go to a writer who writes mainly in English?: No72%Thu 8 Oct
  154. Core CPI MoM - September 2026: 0.2%41%Thu 15 Oct
  155. Core CPI YoY - September 2026: 2.4%95%Thu 15 Oct
  156. Will a woman win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics, Chemistry, Medicine, or Economics?: Yes70%Mon 12 Oct
  157. PPI YoY - September 2026: 5.9%+33%Fri 16 Oct
  158. Will a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks?: No83%Thu 8 Oct
  159. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 7?: No84%Thu 8 Oct
  160. Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?: No65%Fri 16 Oct
  161. Will the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize be awarded (in whole or in part) to an organization?: No59%Fri 9 Oct
  162. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Wed 4 Nov
  163. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro57%Mon 5 Oct
  164. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No95%Wed 4 Nov
  165. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  166. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No58%Sat 3 Oct
  167. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes60%Wed 4 Nov
  168. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane45%Sat 31 Oct
  169. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes71%Tue 3 Nov
  170. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No69%Tue 3 Nov
  171. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No95%Wed 18 Nov
  172. Annie Andrews wins South Carolina US Senate election?: No84%Tue 3 Nov
  173. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  174. Trump out as President before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  175. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  176. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  177. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes75%Wed 4 Nov
  178. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  179. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No60%Wed 4 Nov
  180. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  181. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  182. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  183. US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes98%Wed 30 Sept
  184. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro72%Thu 31 Dec
  185. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  186. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes97%Wed 30 Sept
  187. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No71%Wed 4 Nov
  188. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes63%Tue 3 Nov
  189. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  190. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No88%Tue 3 Nov
  191. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  192. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli92%Sun 6 Dec
  193. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  194. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No91%Tue 3 Nov
  195. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  196. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  197. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  198. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  199. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: Yes61%Tue 3 Nov
  200. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  201. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  202. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  203. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  204. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  205. Blue wave in 2026?: Yes88%Tue 5 Jan
  206. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  207. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No99%Wed 4 Nov
  208. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No84%Mon 30 Nov
  209. Will Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  210. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  211. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  212. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  213. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  214. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  215. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers29%Sat 31 Oct
  216. Will Matt Gaetz become the next Governor of Florida in 2026?: No99%Thu 26 Nov
  217. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: Yes95%Sun 1 Nov
  218. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  219. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  220. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes61%Mon 23 Nov
  221. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes98%Wed 30 Sept
  222. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No84%Tue 6 Oct
  223. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes93%Wed 14 Oct
  224. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No75%Fri 1 Jan
  225. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA78%Fri 1 Jan
  226. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase76%Wed 9 Dec
  227. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  228. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No95%Mon 2 Nov
  229. US recession by end of 2026?: No91%Sun 31 Jan
  230. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No87%Sun 1 Nov
  231. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: SpaceX52%Thu 31 Dec
  232. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro53%Fri 2 Oct
  233. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  234. Anthropic IPO in October?: No96%Sat 31 Oct
  235. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202698%Fri 1 Jan
  236. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  237. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No92%Mon 4 Jan
  238. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  239. Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  240. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  241. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No66%Fri 1 Jan
  242. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Vancouver Whitecaps FC25%Fri 1 Jan
  243. Will a non-MF group be proved this month?: Yes79%Wed 28 Oct
  244. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes90%Wed 14 Oct
  245. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  246. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes72%Mon 30 Nov
  247. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  248. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  249. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No66%Tue 13 Oct
  250. 🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️‍⚧️✨: No77%Mon 2 Nov
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.