50%Fed ended 2026 with rate at 4.25% after two hikes63%Trump remained president as Court upheld hush-money convictions77%No new token surpassed $100 million FDV on launch day86%Mojtaba Khamenei remained Iran's leader as nuclear escalation stalled78%No ceasefire reached and no major gains made in Russia-Ukraine war67%Netanyahu fell short of majority in Israeli election94%China avoided invading Taiwan in 202663%Xavier Becerra won re-election as California governor57%Democrats won control of the house and senate13%Chow Hang-tung won 2026 Nobel Peace Prize75%U.S. posted solid growth and CPI rose in September83%Parti Québécois won Quebec election, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon became Premier

AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Friday, 18 September 2026
Edition of Wednesday, 17 March 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Fri 18 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Wednesday, 17 March 2027.

Economics

Fed ended 2026 with rate at 4.25% after two hikes

The central bank raised rates twice and unemployment rose by September 2026.

50% certain
lead market 50%next 49%1 venuesettles Wed 28 Oct

The Federal Reserve concluded 2026 with the benchmark interest rate at 4.25 percent after two incremental hikes. The policy stance remained unchanged through the year, with no cuts or emergency reductions implemented.

A second quarter-point increase followed in December, reinforcing the tightening trajectory. Both moves were standard 25-basis-point steps rather than larger shifts.

Read the full report

Science

Chow Hang-tung won 2026 Nobel Peace Prize

A US citizen received the Nobel Economics Prize and Donald Trump was given the satirical Nobel Piss Prize.

13% certain
lead market 13%next 13%1 venuesettles Sat 10 Oct

Science

Anthropic topped AI benchmarks in September 2026

The company also led the text Arena Math ranking and secured its first enterprise client for the Blackstone joint venture.

83% certain
lead market 83%next 17%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Oct

Culture

A'ja Wilson won 2026 WNBA MVP award

Olivia Miles also earned Rookie of the year when the league announced its top honors.

53% certain
lead market 53%next 15%1 venuesettles Fri 25 Sept

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Tue 3 Nov
  2. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)75%Wed 30 Sept
  3. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No91%Wed 4 Nov
  4. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  5. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)96%Thu 31 Dec
  6. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party90%Tue 3 Nov
  7. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes57%Tue 1 Dec
  8. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei90%Thu 31 Dec
  9. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep58%Tue 3 Nov
  10. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Chow Hang-tung13%Sat 10 Oct
  11. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  12. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  13. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes89%Sun 15 Nov
  14. Berlin State Election Winner: Linke66%Sun 20 Sept
  15. Israel closes its airspace by September 30?: Yes99%Thu 1 Oct
  16. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No91%Sun 15 Nov
  17. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No98%Tue 3 Nov
  18. Fed Decision in October?: 25 bps increase50%Wed 28 Oct
  19. CA-16 House Election Winner: Sam Liccardo (D)89%Tue 3 Nov
  20. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party59%Tue 3 Nov
  21. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)99%Wed 30 Sept
  22. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes92%Wed 30 Sept
  23. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No72%Tue 3 Nov
  24. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%50%Wed 9 Dec
  25. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic96%Thu 1 Oct
  26. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  27. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 482%Fri 1 Jan
  28. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  29. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes63%Tue 3 Nov
  30. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  31. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  32. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  33. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  34. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  35. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  36. Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  37. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  38. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  39. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner: SPD54%Sun 20 Sept
  40. Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Karen Bass63%Thu 31 Dec
  41. Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?: No100%Sun 20 Sept
  42. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  43. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  44. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  45. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No87%Sun 3 Jan
  46. United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–33940%Sun 20 Sept
  47. Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  48. Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  49. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  50. Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?: Yes57%Wed 4 Nov
  51. Will California elect a Republican governor in 2026?: No96%Tue 3 Nov
  52. Quebec General Election Winner: PQ84%Mon 5 Oct
  53. Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  54. Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?: Yes87%Tue 29 Sept
  55. Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  56. Will Trump's hush money convictions be overturned due to the Supreme Court's grant of presidential immunity?: No89%Mon 30 Nov
  57. WNBA: 2026 Rookie of the Year: Olivia Miles97%Fri 25 Sept
  58. Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026: No83%Sat 31 Oct
  59. Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)92%Sun 20 Sept
  60. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  61. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase65%Wed 9 Dec
  62. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No86%Thu 31 Dec
  63. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes81%Sat 31 Oct
  64. Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  65. Will bitcoin rise to 85k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?: Yes87%Thu 1 Oct
  66. Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?: Yes60%Sun 20 Sept
  67. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  68. Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  69. StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  70. Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  71. Will unemployment in the US be higher in September 2026 than in either September 2022 or September 2024?: Yes93%Sun 1 Nov
  72. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?: Yes67%Thu 31 Dec
  73. Will Netanyahu win the next elections in Israel?: No82%Tue 10 Nov
  74. Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  75. Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  76. Will Trump and Xi meet in September 2026?: Yes81%Wed 30 Sept
  77. Will The Odyssey gross more than Spider-Man: Brand New Day at the domestic box office this weekend (Sept 18–20)?: Yes86%Sun 20 Sept
  78. Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?: Yes96%Wed 30 Sept
  79. Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  80. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No98%Fri 8 Jan
  81. Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?: No85%Sat 3 Oct
  82. Next Premier of Quebec: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon83%Mon 5 Oct
  83. Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  84. How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 2 (50 bps)60%Thu 31 Dec
  85. StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  86. Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  87. Israel military action against Lebanon on September 26?: Yes82%Sat 26 Sept
  88. WNBA: 2026 MVP: A'ja Wilson92%Fri 25 Sept
  89. Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  90. Will bitcoin go below 9.000$ at the end of this month?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  91. Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  92. Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?: Anthropic91%Thu 1 Oct
  93. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: SPD Vote Share?: 31%+91%Sun 20 Sept
  94. Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?: Yes63%Mon 21 Sept
  95. Bitcoin price reaches 75k USD at any point before the end of the month: Yes69%Wed 30 Sept
  96. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Linke91%Sun 20 Sept
  97. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: AfD54%Sun 20 Sept
  98. Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)58%Sun 20 Sept
  99. Will Israel attack Iraq in September 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  100. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  101. "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office: 65-70m43%Sun 20 Sept
  102. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Vote Share?: <8%89%Sun 20 Sept
  103. Will Trump win Nobel Piss Prize 2026? [Read description]: Yes85%Fri 16 Oct
  104. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Linke Vote Share?: 8-11%68%Sun 20 Sept
  105. Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On): Anthropic97%Thu 1 Oct
  106. Will the Anthropic-Blackstone enterprise AI services firm name its first customer by Sept 30, 2026?: Yes86%Wed 30 Sept
  107. Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout: 50-53%30%Sun 20 Sept
  108. Berlin State Election: Linke Vote Share?: 20-23%64%Sun 20 Sept
  109. Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% in September?: No83%Wed 30 Sept
  110. Berlin State Election: Grüne Vote Share?: 14-17%55%Sun 20 Sept
  111. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of September?: Anthropic92%Thu 1 Oct
  112. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?: Over82%Sun 20 Sept
  113. Berlin State Election: 2nd Place: CDU56%Sun 20 Sept
  114. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?: Anthropic87%Thu 1 Oct
  115. Berlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?: 10-13%67%Sun 20 Sept
  116. Berlin State Election: 3rd Place: AfD60%Sun 20 Sept
  117. Will United Russia get more seats in the next Russian Duma election than the one in 2021?: No60%Mon 21 Sept
  118. How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?: <3583%Sun 20 Sept
  119. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?: 5-7%49%Sun 20 Sept
  120. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Vote Share?: 3-5%69%Sun 20 Sept
  121. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?: Anthropic83%Thu 1 Oct
  122. Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics?: Yes86%Sat 17 Oct
  123. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in September?: No76%Thu 1 Oct
  124. Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes75%Wed 14 Oct
  125. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?: 35-38%44%Sun 20 Sept
  126. Morocco Legislative Elections: Party Winner: PAM79%Wed 23 Sept
  127. Will Yabloko win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?: No91%Sun 20 Sept
  128. Berlin State Election: AfD Vote Share?: 17-20%80%Sun 20 Sept
  129. Next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?: Alfred Cannan44%Thu 24 Sept
  130. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Elections: SPD # of seats?: 26-2941%Sun 20 Sept
  131. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD?: AfD56%Sun 20 Sept
  132. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of Victory: SPD 0-2%42%Sun 20 Sept
  133. Will "Resident Evil" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: Yes91%Mon 21 Sept
  134. Berlin 2026 Election: How Large Will the Abgeordnetenhaus Be?: 163+64%Sun 20 Sept
  135. Vologda Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner: United Russia95%Sun 20 Sept
  136. Will Rodina win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?: Yes85%Sun 20 Sept
  137. WNBA: 2026 Defensive Player of the Year: Gabby Williams53%Fri 25 Sept
  138. Chechnya Gubernatorial Election Winner: Ramzan Kadyrov99%Sun 20 Sept
  139. How many seats will the Communist Party (KPRF) win in the next Russian legislative election?: <5077%Sun 20 Sept
  140. WNBA: 2026 Coach of the Year: Cheryl Reeve97%Fri 25 Sept
  141. Russia Parliamentary Election: 4th Place: New People (NL)98%Sun 20 Sept
  142. Which party will win the 2026 Berlin state election?: Linke68%Sat 19 Sept
  143. Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or Grüne?: CDU88%Sun 20 Sept
  144. Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?: Yes63%Sun 20 Sept
  145. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro52%Sun 4 Oct
  146. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No95%Wed 4 Nov
  147. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No94%Sat 31 Oct
  148. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  149. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane54%Sat 31 Oct
  150. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes55%Wed 4 Nov
  151. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No54%Sat 3 Oct
  152. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  153. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No95%Wed 18 Nov
  154. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes65%Tue 3 Nov
  155. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No67%Tue 3 Nov
  156. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot50%Thu 31 Dec
  157. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No58%Tue 1 Dec
  158. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3087%Thu 1 Oct
  159. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  160. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  161. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro83%Thu 31 Dec
  162. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro75%Sun 4 Oct
  163. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes76%Wed 4 Nov
  164. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  165. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  166. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  167. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No55%Wed 4 Nov
  168. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  169. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli92%Sun 6 Dec
  170. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes91%Fri 2 Oct
  171. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  172. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  173. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  174. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No88%Tue 3 Nov
  175. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  176. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes67%Tue 3 Nov
  177. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA73%Thu 31 Dec
  178. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  179. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  180. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  181. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  182. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  183. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  184. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  185. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  186. Opus 5.2 released in September?: No69%Wed 30 Sept
  187. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Thu 31 Dec
  188. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  189. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  190. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  191. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  192. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: Yes53%Tue 3 Nov
  193. Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  194. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  195. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No87%Tue 3 Nov
  196. FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: FC Bayern München83%Fri 18 Sept
  197. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic53%Thu 31 Dec
  198. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  199. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  200. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  201. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  202. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No83%Thu 31 Dec
  203. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  204. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers30%Sat 31 Oct
  205. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  206. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No65%Mon 30 Nov
  207. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  208. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  209. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  210. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day94%Thu 31 Dec
  211. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  212. Next Prime Minister of Romania?: Siegfried Mureșan39%Thu 31 Dec
  213. Trump out as President by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  214. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  215. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 18?: No93%Fri 18 Sept
  216. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  217. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  218. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes92%Wed 14 Oct
  219. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  220. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: Yes54%Sun 27 Sept
  221. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes58%Mon 23 Nov
  222. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  223. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  224. Will 0x876611867717dE6b6dff30da5CeF9feB620eE1ea REACH more than 100.00 USDC Base by September 21th 11:59 pm UTC: Yes65%Mon 21 Sept
  225. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  226. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  227. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No76%Fri 1 Jan
  228. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No95%Mon 2 Nov
  229. US recession by end of 2026?: No92%Sun 31 Jan
  230. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes84%Wed 30 Sept
  231. Iran full airspace closure by September 30?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  232. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  233. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  234. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  235. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: No65%Fri 1 Jan
  236. Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026?: No83%Tue 29 Sept
  237. US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on September 21 2026?: Yes99%Mon 21 Sept
  238. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  239. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula47%Fri 2 Oct
  240. SpaceX closes at $150.00 or higher on Friday 18 September 2026?: Yes80%Fri 18 Sept
  241. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  242. Will a non-MF group be proved this month?: Yes83%Wed 28 Oct
  243. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No72%Tue 6 Oct
  244. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes69%Mon 30 Nov
  245. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  246. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  247. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes86%Wed 14 Oct
  248. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No66%Tue 13 Oct
  249. 🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️‍⚧️✨: No77%Mon 2 Nov
  250. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.