Economics
U.S. posted solid growth and CPI rose in September
Treasury yields remained above 4.76% and the S&P 500 stayed above $740 throughout the month.
The United States recorded positive gross domestic product growth in each of the first three quarters of 2026. Treasury yields on the 10-year note stayed at or above 4.76% throughout September. Consumer prices rose by at least 0.3% month-over-month in September. The S&P 500 index remained above the $740 level for the month.
Quarterly data showed the economy avoided contraction, with output expanding or holding steady in Q1, Q2 and Q3. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near the mid-4% range, never slipping below the 4.76% threshold. This stability contrasted with earlier concerns about a sharp decline.
Headline CPI-U increased by at least 0.3% in September, confirming modest inflation pressures. The rise reflected broad-based price gains across core categories. Inflation remained within the range targeted by policymakers.
The S&P 500 index closed the month above $740, dispelling fears of a low-point breach. Equity valuations held steady despite mixed economic signals.
The month ended without a dip in 10-year Treasury yields. It also avoided a fall of the S&P 500 below $740. Inflation nevertheless rose at least 0.3%.
Analysis
Positive GDP growth across the first three quarters suggests that the economy maintained momentum despite earlier worries of a slowdown. Continued expansion reduces immediate pressure on policymakers to enact aggressive stimulus measures.
Stable Treasury yields above 4.76% indicate that investors retained confidence in the government's fiscal outlook, limiting borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. Meanwhile, the modest rise in CPI-U points to inflation that is neither accelerating sharply nor falling sharply, giving the Federal Reserve room to balance rate decisions.
However, future quarters could still present uncertainty if inflation dynamics shift or if unexpected shocks affect growth.
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