35%Fed ended 2026 with 4.25% rate after single Hike68%Anthropic reached $1.75 trillion valuation and topped model rankings67%No ceasefire reached between Russia and Ukraine in 202693%China avoided invading Taiwan and clashing with Japan in 202687%Washington ruled out Greenland acquisition in 202658%Bad Bunny topped Spotify streams in 202653%Gadi Eizenkot became Israel's Prime Minister52%Democrats swept Congress, taking house and senate61%Tarcísio de Freitas won São Paulo governorship43%Lula won Brazil's 2026 Presidential first round, triggering runoff79%Israel closed airspace and struck Lebanon as ceasefire with Iran held71%U.S. gasoline topped $4 per gallon as Oil rose above $105

AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Edition of Sunday, 14 March 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Tue 15 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Sunday, 14 March 2027.

Economics

Fed ended 2026 with 4.25% rate after single Hike

The central bank raised rates once by 25 basis points and finished the year at 4.25 percent.

35% certain
lead market 35%next 33%1 venuesettles Wed 9 Dec

The Federal Reserve made only one policy move in 2026, a 25-basis-point increase. That Hike lifted the target range to 4.25 percent by the end of the year. No cuts were implemented at any meeting during the year.

In October, the Committee left the target range unchanged, confirming a pause after earlier years of tightening.

Read the full report

Science

OpenAI classified a model as Critical

OpenAI led in text-to-Image and web-dev Code, but fell Second in Agent labs and lost a GPT trademark.

78% certain
lead market 78%next 21%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro49%Sun 4 Oct
  2. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)76%Wed 30 Sept
  3. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  4. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)91%Thu 31 Dec
  5. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes52%Tue 1 Dec
  6. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party87%Tue 3 Nov
  7. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No52%Tue 1 Dec
  8. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot53%Thu 31 Dec
  9. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep54%Tue 3 Nov
  10. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes89%Sun 15 Nov
  11. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No89%Sun 15 Nov
  12. Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes93%Wed 9 Dec
  13. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  14. Berlin State Election Winner: Linke63%Sun 20 Sept
  15. Israel closes its airspace by September 30?: Yes97%Thu 1 Oct
  16. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro73%Sun 4 Oct
  17. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  18. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3094%Thu 1 Oct
  19. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  20. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  21. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party53%Tue 3 Nov
  22. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  23. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day93%Thu 31 Dec
  24. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%35%Wed 9 Dec
  25. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  26. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)99%Wed 30 Sept
  27. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  28. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  29. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  30. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  31. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  32. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  33. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  34. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  35. Fed Decision in October?: No change61%Wed 28 Oct
  36. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  37. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  38. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  39. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No86%Thu 1 Oct
  40. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No92%Wed 30 Sept
  41. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula50%Fri 2 Oct
  42. Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?: Yes88%Wed 9 Dec
  43. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  44. Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?: No55%Wed 4 Nov
  45. Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?: No87%Thu 1 Oct
  46. Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?: No100%Sun 20 Sept
  47. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  48. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner: AfD84%Sun 20 Sept
  49. Next Prime Minister of Romania?: Alexandru Nazare62%Thu 31 Dec
  50. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  51. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  52. Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?: Yes85%Sat 7 Nov
  53. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  54. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Augusto Cury43%Sun 4 Oct
  55. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  56. Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September?: No86%Thu 1 Oct
  57. Will bitcoin rise to 85k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?: Yes98%Thu 1 Oct
  58. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No95%Sat 31 Oct
  59. Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  60. United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–33943%Sun 20 Sept
  61. Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)91%Sun 20 Sept
  62. Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?: Yes90%Wed 9 Dec
  63. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?: No98%Thu 31 Dec
  64. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No86%Thu 31 Dec
  65. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic68%Fri 1 Jan
  66. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No67%Fri 1 Jan
  67. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  68. Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: Yes79%Thu 1 Oct
  69. Bank of Japan Decision in September?: 25 bps increase97%Fri 18 Sept
  70. US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?: Yes97%Wed 30 Sept
  71. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  72. Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?: Yes66%Sun 20 Sept
  73. Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos)82%Sun 4 Oct
  74. Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo: No94%Thu 31 Dec
  75. Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  76. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase56%Wed 9 Dec
  77. Top Spotify Artist 2026: Bad Bunny94%Thu 31 Dec
  78. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo79%Sun 4 Oct
  79. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  80. Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  81. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?: Yes88%Fri 1 Jan
  82. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes95%Sun 4 Oct
  83. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No95%Sun 4 Oct
  84. Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday58%Fri 1 Jan
  85. US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on October 1st 2026?: Yes93%Thu 1 Oct
  86. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?: Yes79%Thu 1 Oct
  87. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  88. Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?: No93%Tue 10 Nov
  89. US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on any day in September 2026?: Yes71%Wed 30 Sept
  90. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  91. Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  92. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No93%Fri 8 Jan
  93. Will the US sign a peace agreement based on Iran's 14-point plan before September 30, 2026?: No89%Wed 30 Sept
  94. How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 1 (25 bps)47%Thu 31 Dec
  95. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes82%Mon 5 Oct
  96. Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  97. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Anthropic84%Sun 1 Nov
  98. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%47%Sun 4 Oct
  99. São Paulo Governor Election Winner: Tarcísio de Freitas98%Sun 4 Oct
  100. Ceará Governor Election Winner: Ciro Gomes61%Sun 4 Oct
  101. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro84%Mon 5 Oct
  102. Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  103. Bank of England decision in September?: No change94%Thu 17 Sept
  104. Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  105. Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?: Yes55%Mon 21 Sept
  106. Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?: Yes52%Thu 1 Oct
  107. Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  108. Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes96%Sun 4 Oct
  109. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: SPD Vote Share?: 31%+86%Sun 20 Sept
  110. Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?: No83%Thu 1 Oct
  111. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?: OpenAI78%Thu 1 Oct
  112. Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No99%Sun 4 Oct
  113. Bank of Brazil decision in September?: 25 bps decrease97%Tue 15 Sept
  114. Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  115. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: SPD82%Sun 20 Sept
  116. Bitcoin price reaches 75k USD at any point before the end of the month: Yes73%Wed 30 Sept
  117. Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  118. Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco61%Sun 4 Oct
  119. Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner: Lula73%Sun 4 Oct
  120. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Vote Share?: <8%82%Sun 20 Sept
  121. Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)53%Sun 20 Sept
  122. Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?: No87%Thu 1 Oct
  123. Israel military action against Lebanon on September 30?: Yes83%Wed 30 Sept
  124. What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?: Instadocs: The Decoy Plane98%Tue 15 Sept
  125. Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  126. Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?: No82%Thu 1 Oct
  127. Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  128. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Linke Vote Share?: 8-11%62%Sun 20 Sept
  129. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: CDU71%Sun 20 Sept
  130. Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September?: OpenAI87%Thu 1 Oct
  131. Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout: 53-56%26%Sun 20 Sept
  132. Will United Russia get more seats in the next Russian Duma election than the one in 2021?: No60%Mon 21 Sept
  133. Berlin State Election: Linke Vote Share?: 23%+78%Sun 20 Sept
  134. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Vote Share?: 3-5%54%Sun 20 Sept
  135. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to CDU or Linke?: Linke93%Sun 20 Sept
  136. Berlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?: <10%57%Sun 20 Sept
  137. Berlin State Election: Grüne Vote Share?: 14-17%41%Sun 20 Sept
  138. Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of September?: OpenAI92%Thu 1 Oct
  139. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?: 38%+50%Sun 20 Sept
  140. Berlin State Election: AfD Vote Share?: 17-20%61%Sun 20 Sept
  141. Will OpenAI classify any model as "Critical" capability under its Preparedness Framework before Oct 1, 2026?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  142. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?: 5-7%63%Sun 20 Sept
  143. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: SPD Over/Under 28%?: Over90%Sun 20 Sept
  144. What will be the top US Netflix show this week?: Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 197%Tue 15 Sept
  145. What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?: The Whisper Man97%Tue 15 Sept
  146. Berlin State Election: 4th Place: Grüne68%Sun 20 Sept
  147. How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?: <3585%Sun 20 Sept
  148. What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?: Why Did I Get Married Again?97%Tue 15 Sept
  149. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?: Over83%Sun 20 Sept
  150. Berlin State Election: 2nd Place: CDU58%Sun 20 Sept
  151. Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or AfD?: CDU82%Sun 20 Sept
  152. Berlin State Election: 3rd Place: AfD51%Sun 20 Sept
  153. What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?: Those Who Wish Me Dead97%Tue 15 Sept
  154. What will be the top global Netflix show this week?: The Gentlemen: Season 299%Tue 15 Sept
  155. What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?: Why Did I Get Married Again?95%Tue 15 Sept
  156. What will be the #2 global Netflix show this week?: Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 199%Tue 15 Sept
  157. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%?: Under59%Sun 20 Sept
  158. Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or Grüne?: AfD78%Sun 20 Sept
  159. Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD?: AfD92%Sun 20 Sept
  160. Fed Decision in September?: 25 bps increase87%Wed 16 Sept
  161. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Tue 3 Nov
  162. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No90%Wed 4 Nov
  163. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No95%Wed 4 Nov
  164. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No94%Sat 31 Oct
  165. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  166. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane50%Sat 31 Oct
  167. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: No50%Wed 4 Nov
  168. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No52%Sat 3 Oct
  169. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No95%Wed 18 Nov
  170. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes64%Tue 3 Nov
  171. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  172. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No65%Tue 3 Nov
  173. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms15%Sat 10 Oct
  174. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  175. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  176. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  177. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei88%Thu 31 Dec
  178. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  179. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro81%Thu 31 Dec
  180. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes76%Wed 4 Nov
  181. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  182. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  183. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No53%Wed 4 Nov
  184. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes92%Fri 2 Oct
  185. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli91%Sun 6 Dec
  186. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  187. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic90%Thu 1 Oct
  188. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes67%Tue 3 Nov
  189. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  190. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No80%Tue 3 Nov
  191. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  192. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  193. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No72%Tue 3 Nov
  194. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  195. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  196. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  197. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  198. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  199. Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?: No99%Mon 21 Sept
  200. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes63%Tue 3 Nov
  201. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  202. VA-06 House Election Winner: did not happen86%Tue 3 Nov
  203. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  204. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  205. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  206. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  207. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: No51%Tue 3 Nov
  208. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  209. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 485%Fri 1 Jan
  210. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No86%Tue 3 Nov
  211. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No93%Thu 31 Dec
  212. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  213. Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?: Yes94%Thu 1 Oct
  214. Elche CF vs. Real Madrid CF: Real Madrid CF78%Tue 15 Sept
  215. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers30%Sat 31 Oct
  216. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No65%Mon 30 Nov
  217. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No83%Thu 31 Dec
  218. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  219. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No96%Sun 27 Sept
  220. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  221. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  222. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  223. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  224. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  225. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 15?: Yes91%Tue 15 Sept
  226. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  227. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Vancouver Whitecaps FC17%Sat 19 Dec
  228. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  229. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes92%Wed 14 Oct
  230. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  231. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  232. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic52%Thu 31 Dec
  233. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  234. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes54%Mon 23 Nov
  235. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  236. Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Karen Bass65%Thu 31 Dec
  237. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No95%Mon 2 Nov
  238. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes72%Wed 16 Sept
  239. Will a non-MF group be proved this month?: Yes93%Wed 28 Oct
  240. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  241. Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026?: No83%Tue 29 Sept
  242. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  243. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA67%Thu 31 Dec
  244. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  245. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  246. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  247. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  248. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  249. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes65%Mon 30 Nov
  250. Trump out as President by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.