World
Strait of Hormuz traffic stayed below normal
Bab el-Mandeb remained open while Iran kept control of Kharg Island
On Thursday, key maritime routes in the Middle East remained largely operational despite ongoing tensions. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stayed below pre-crisis levels, indicating that shipments had not normalized by the end of September. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait continued to allow passage, with no effective closure reported. At the same time, the United States kept its blockade of Iranian vessels in place and Iran retained control of Kharg Island.
Authorities monitoring vessel movements recorded that the volume of oil tankers and cargo ships through Hormuz remained reduced compared with the previous year. The shortfall reflected lingering security concerns and rerouting of some cargo to alternative passages such as the Cape of Good Hope.
Shipping companies reported no significant disruptions or closures affecting the narrow waterway that links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. The continued operation helped preserve the flow of goods between Europe and Asia despite regional volatility.
The United States did not issue a declaration ending its blockade of Iranian shipping by the end of September. Naval patrols continued to intercept or shadow Iranian-flagged vessels suspected of violating sanctions. The persistence of the blockade signaled an ongoing policy stance toward Tehran's maritime activities.
Iranian forces maintained authority over Kharg Island through September 30, with no evidence of a transfer of control. The Island, which hosts a major oil terminal, remained a strategic asset for Iran's export infrastructure.
Analysis
Ship owners and insurers must factor in longer transit times and the risk of further disruptions when planning voyages that would normally pass through the Strait
The Bab el-Mandeb's continued openness mitigates some of the pressure created by the Hormuz shortfall, as the Red Sea corridor remains viable for European-Asian trade. However, the United States' ongoing blockade of Iranian vessels sustains a level of friction that can affect shipping security in the wider region, prompting heightened naval presence and potential encounters at sea. Together, these dynamics preserve a functional trade route while maintaining a backdrop of geopolitical tension.
Iran's retention of Kharg Island secures a key node in its oil export chain, reinforcing the country's ability to sustain production despite external pressure. The combination of a blocked Hormuz corridor, an unclosed Bab el-Mandeb, and an active US blockade creates a complex maritime environment where commercial actors must navigate both logistical constraints and security risks. Future shifts, such as policy changes in Washington or escalations around Hormuz, remain uncertain and could reshape the balance of shipping flows.
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