42%Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in 202661%Anthropic valuation topped $1.75 trillion86%Mojtaba Khamenei remained Iran's leader through 202684%United States stayed in NATO and avoided war with Iran93%China avoided invasion, blockade and clash with Taiwan in 202650%Starship made fewer than five flights in 202667%Xavier Becerra elected governor as California stays Democratic49%Democrats won control of house and senate in 2026 Midterms51%Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins elected Alaska governor31%Lula won runoff but will not take office in 202756%OpenAI classifies model as Critical under new Framework56%United Russia won every region in 2026 Duma elections

AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Friday, 11 September 2026
Edition of Wednesday, 10 March 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Fri 11 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Wednesday, 10 March 2027.

Economics

Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in 2026

The central bank delivered a single Hike and finished the year with rates at a 4.0% target range.

42% certain
lead market 42%next 22%1 venuesettles Wed 9 Dec

In 2026 the Federal Reserve implemented only one policy move, a modest increase of 25 basis points. The Hike occurred amid a series of meetings where the target range remained unchanged. The year concluded with the benchmark rate set at the 4.0 percent target range.

Earlier meetings saw no alteration to the policy stance. Throughout the calendar, the Fed refrained from any rate cuts.

Read the full report

Politics

Lula won runoff but will not take office in 2027

Lula won the runoff after a sub-5% first-round lead over Flávio Bolsonaro, but will not assume the presidency in January 2027.

31% certain
lead market 31%next 24%1 venuesettles Sun 4 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Fed Decision in September?: 25 bps increase60%Wed 16 Sept
  2. Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?: No99%Fri 6 Nov
  3. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro52%Sun 4 Oct
  4. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Tue 3 Nov
  5. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No89%Wed 4 Nov
  6. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)77%Wed 30 Sept
  7. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  8. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  9. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)89%Thu 31 Dec
  10. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No50%Sat 3 Oct
  11. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party86%Tue 3 Nov
  12. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei89%Thu 31 Dec
  13. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes51%Tue 1 Dec
  14. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No64%Tue 3 Nov
  15. Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Magdalena Andersson82%Sun 13 Sept
  16. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  17. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep49%Tue 3 Nov
  18. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No51%Tue 1 Dec
  19. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes89%Sun 15 Nov
  20. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No89%Sun 15 Nov
  21. Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes79%Wed 9 Dec
  22. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro73%Sun 4 Oct
  23. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  24. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No72%Tue 3 Nov
  25. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party52%Tue 3 Nov
  26. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  27. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.0%42%Wed 9 Dec
  28. Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)99%Sun 13 Sept
  29. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)99%Wed 30 Sept
  30. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic88%Thu 1 Oct
  31. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  32. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes63%Tue 3 Nov
  33. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  34. Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  35. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: No51%Tue 3 Nov
  36. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  37. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  38. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  39. Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Karen Bass67%Thu 31 Dec
  40. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  41. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula54%Fri 2 Oct
  42. Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?: No99%Sun 20 Sept
  43. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  44. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  45. Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?: Yes63%Wed 9 Dec
  46. Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?: No51%Wed 4 Nov
  47. Will California elect a Republican governor in 2026?: No96%Tue 3 Nov
  48. Alaska Governor Election Winner : Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins64%Tue 3 Nov
  49. Liberals still in Riksdag after next election?: Yes56%Sat 12 Sept
  50. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  51. Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election?: Yes95%Sat 12 Sept
  52. Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  53. Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)86%Sun 20 Sept
  54. United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–33940%Sun 20 Sept
  55. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic61%Fri 1 Jan
  56. Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?: Yes76%Wed 9 Dec
  57. Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?: Yes72%Sun 20 Sept
  58. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  59. Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?: No86%Thu 1 Oct
  60. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase59%Wed 9 Dec
  61. Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  62. Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  63. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%31%Sun 4 Oct
  64. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?: Yes91%Fri 1 Jan
  65. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes98%Sun 4 Oct
  66. 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?: Yes66%Wed 16 Sept
  67. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No94%Sun 4 Oct
  68. Best Chinese AI Company end of September?: Alibaba73%Thu 1 Oct
  69. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  70. How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: <550%Fri 1 Jan
  71. Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?: Yes72%Sun 13 Sept
  72. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Sweden Democrats (SD)79%Sun 13 Sept
  73. Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?: No93%Tue 10 Nov
  74. Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?: 18-20%73%Sun 13 Sept
  75. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No93%Fri 8 Jan
  76. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?: Yes80%Fri 1 Jan
  77. Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  78. How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 1 (25 bps)43%Thu 31 Dec
  79. Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  80. Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  81. Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  82. Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?: Yes56%Thu 1 Oct
  83. Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?: No83%Thu 1 Oct
  84. Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes97%Sun 4 Oct
  85. Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  86. Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?: Yes62%Mon 21 Sept
  87. Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by September 30?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  88. Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?: Anthropic93%Thu 1 Oct
  89. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Moderate Party (M)80%Sun 13 Sept
  90. Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  91. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?: OpenAI85%Thu 1 Oct
  92. Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?: Yes99%Thu 1 Oct
  93. Osnabrück Mayoral Election Winner: Katharina Pötter72%Sun 13 Sept
  94. Did OpenAI just solve hodge??: No56%Thu 1 Oct
  95. Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On): Anthropic96%Thu 1 Oct
  96. Will the Anthropic-Blackstone enterprise AI services firm name its first customer by Sept 30, 2026?: Yes92%Wed 30 Sept
  97. Sweden Parliamentary Election: Örebropartiet Win Seats?: No82%Sun 13 Sept
  98. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of September?: Anthropic85%Thu 1 Oct
  99. Hannover Mayoral Election Winner: Belit Onay66%Sun 13 Sept
  100. Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SD or M?: SD80%Sun 13 Sept
  101. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 4th Place: Centre Party (C)51%Sun 13 Sept
  102. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 5th Place: Centre Party (C)35%Sun 13 Sept
  103. Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of September?: OpenAI89%Thu 1 Oct
  104. Fed interest rate decision — September 2026: 25 bps increase59%Wed 16 Sept
  105. Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?: No92%Wed 30 Sept
  106. Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September?: OpenAI94%Thu 1 Oct
  107. Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?: No63%Thu 1 Oct
  108. 🇸🇪 Will Sweden’s Social Democrats win at least 31% of the vote in the September 13, 2026 general election?: No79%Sun 13 Sept
  109. Which company has the best Image Edit AI end of September?: OpenAI88%Thu 1 Oct
  110. How many dissent at the September Fed meeting?: 331%Wed 16 Sept
  111. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?: Anthropic99%Thu 1 Oct
  112. Will OpenAI classify any model as "Critical" capability under its Preparedness Framework before Oct 1, 2026?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  113. Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?: Anthropic83%Thu 1 Oct
  114. Braunschweig Mayoral Election Winner: Thorsten Kornblum94%Sun 13 Sept
  115. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 6th Place: Green Party (MP)61%Sun 13 Sept
  116. Salzgitter Mayoral Election Winner: Frank Klingebiel96%Sun 13 Sept
  117. Göttingen Mayoral Election Winner: Onyeka Oshionwu55%Sun 13 Sept
  118. What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?: The Whisper Man95%Tue 15 Sept
  119. What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?: Why Did I Get Married Again?95%Tue 15 Sept
  120. What will be the top global Netflix show this week?: The Gentlemen: Season 290%Tue 15 Sept
  121. Sweden Parliamentary Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory: S 7-10%65%Sun 13 Sept
  122. What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?: Why Did I Get Married Again?94%Tue 15 Sept
  123. What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?: Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 157%Tue 15 Sept
  124. Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 Week of September 7 2026?: No73%Fri 11 Sept
  125. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  126. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No95%Sat 31 Oct
  127. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane57%Sat 31 Oct
  128. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: No51%Wed 4 Nov
  129. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  130. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No96%Wed 18 Nov
  131. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot55%Thu 31 Dec
  132. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes62%Tue 3 Nov
  133. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  134. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Yulia Navalnaya10%Sat 10 Oct
  135. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3091%Thu 1 Oct
  136. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  137. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  138. Berlin State Election Winner: Linke58%Sun 20 Sept
  139. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli85%Sun 6 Dec
  140. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro82%Thu 31 Dec
  141. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  142. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  143. Israel closes its airspace by September 30?: Yes97%Thu 1 Oct
  144. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  145. AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?: Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  146. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  147. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No52%Wed 4 Nov
  148. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes73%Wed 4 Nov
  149. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes92%Fri 2 Oct
  150. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  151. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  152. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  153. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  154. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes68%Tue 3 Nov
  155. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  156. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes88%Wed 30 Sept
  157. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No80%Tue 3 Nov
  158. WI-05 House Election Winner: Scott Fitzgerald (R)86%Tue 3 Nov
  159. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  160. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  161. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  162. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  163. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No93%Thu 31 Dec
  164. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No88%Thu 1 Oct
  165. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  166. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  167. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  168. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  169. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  170. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  171. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  172. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  173. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  174. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  175. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  176. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  177. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  178. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No86%Tue 3 Nov
  179. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No84%Thu 31 Dec
  180. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers31%Sat 31 Oct
  181. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 11?: Yes91%Fri 11 Sept
  182. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  183. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  184. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  185. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No66%Mon 30 Nov
  186. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes96%Sun 6 Dec
  187. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic56%Thu 31 Dec
  188. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  189. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  190. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No88%Thu 1 Oct
  191. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No96%Sun 27 Sept
  192. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Inter Miami CF19%Sat 19 Dec
  193. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  194. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  195. US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on September 21 2026?: Yes99%Mon 21 Sept
  196. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  197. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  198. Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?: Yes90%Thu 1 Oct
  199. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day94%Thu 31 Dec
  200. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA75%Thu 31 Dec
  201. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  202. 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis): Alexander Zverev50%Sun 13 Sept
  203. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  204. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 499%Fri 1 Jan
  205. Fed Decision in October?: No change64%Wed 28 Oct
  206. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  207. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No80%Fri 1 Jan
  208. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  209. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  210. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  211. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  212. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  213. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  214. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes54%Mon 23 Nov
  215. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  216. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes83%Wed 14 Oct
  217. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  218. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  219. Will the winner of the 2026 Vuelta a España be Roglic or Pogacar?: No88%Sun 13 Sept
  220. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No84%Sun 3 Jan
  221. US recession by end of 2026?: No93%Sun 31 Jan
  222. Will YES have more holders than NO?: Yes87%Mon 14 Sept
  223. Will a non-MF group be proved this month?: Yes93%Wed 28 Oct
  224. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  225. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  226. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  227. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: No62%Fri 1 Jan
  228. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  229. Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  230. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes67%Wed 16 Sept
  231. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  232. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes65%Mon 30 Nov
  233. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  234. Next Prime Minister of Romania?: Alexandru Nazare67%Thu 31 Dec
  235. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner: AfD82%Sun 20 Sept
  236. Fed decisions (Jun-Sep): Other62%Wed 16 Sept
  237. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes86%Wed 14 Oct
  238. Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  239. MLB: Home Runs Leader: Kyle Schwarber80%Sun 11 Oct
  240. Iran full airspace closure by September 30?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  241. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No65%Tue 13 Oct
  242. Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  243. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  244. Will Seth Bodnar win Montanas Senate Election?: No91%Tue 3 Nov
  245. 🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️‍⚧️✨: No71%Mon 2 Nov
  246. "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" breaks the record for the biggest domestic lifetime gross of all time?: Yes99%Sun 4 Oct
  247. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  248. Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  249. Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece: No67%Sat 3 Oct
  250. Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?: No68%Fri 6 Nov
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.