AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Friday, 11 September 2026
Edition of Wednesday, 10 March 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Fri 11 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Wednesday, 10 March 2027.

Science

Starship made fewer than five flights in 2026

The Doge-1 Lunar Mission did not launch by Dec. 31, 2026, and no Starship was sent toward Mars.

50% certain
lead market 50%next 46%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan3 markets behind this

SpaceX's Starship completed fewer than five flights that reached space during 2026. In addition, the Doge-1 Lunar Mission did not launch by the end of the year. A planned Starship launch aimed at Mars also failed to materialise.

The number of Starship launches that reached space in 2026 was verified on Friday 1 January.

The Mission was confirmed not to have launched by 31 December 2026. Consequently, the spacecraft stayed on the launch pad throughout the year.

The prospect of a Starship launch to Mars within the next 24 months was ruled out on Wednesday 28 October. The assessment concluded that no such interplanetary flight was scheduled for the ensuing two-year period. As a result, the planned Mars Mission remained uninitiated.

Analysis

The limited number of Starship flights in 2026 reduces the launch capacity that NASA and its partners had anticipated from the vehicle. With fewer opportunities to ride on Starship, schedules for Lunar and Martian projects that relied on its heavy-lift capability may need to be revised, potentially delaying scientific payload deliveries and crewed Mission milestones.

The failure of the Doge-1 Lunar Mission to launch by the end of 2026 leaves a gap in the planned Lunar exploration architecture.

The confirmation that no Starship launch to Mars Will occur within the next two years adds uncertainty to interplanetary exploration plans.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No, 99% settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?: No, 96% settles Friday, 1 January 2027 · polymarket · see the market
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: <5, 50% settles Friday, 1 January 2027 · polymarket · see the market
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