40%Fed finished 2026 with rate at 4% and no cuts60%Anthropic topped AI model rankings and hit $1.75 trillion valuation60%Ukraine remained outside NATO as war ended without cease-fire in 202693%China did not invade Taiwan in 202693%U.S. remained in NATO after Trump gave no withdrawal announcement56%Spider-Man: Brand New Day topped 2026 box office65%Xavier Becerra elected governor of California50%Democrats retained control of house and senate in 2026 Midterms51%Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins elected Alaska governor96%Benjamin Netanyahu remained Israel's prime minister71%Parti Québécois won election, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon became Premier37%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualified for Brazil runoff

AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Thursday, 10 September 2026
Edition of Tuesday, 9 March 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Thu 10 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Tuesday, 9 March 2027.

Economics

Fed finished 2026 with rate at 4% and no cuts

The central bank delivered multiple hikes, left October and December rates unchanged, and kept the lower bound above 2.75%.

40% certain
lead market 40%next 22%1 venuesettles Wed 9 Dec

The Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish stance throughout 2026, delivering several rate hikes. By the end of the year the federal funds target rate stood at 4.0 percent, and the Fed did not implement any cuts. The October and December policy meetings both left the target unchanged, and the lower bound of the range remained above 2.75 percent heading into 2027.

A rate increase was recorded during the year, confirming that the Fed moved upward at least once. The December 9 decision, which set the final rate at 4.0 percent, followed an earlier Hike earlier in the calendar. This upward adjustment contributed to the cumulative tightening observed across 2026.

Read the full report

Politics

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins elected Alaska governor

Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins won the governor's race while Republican Dan Sullivan was defeated for the senate seat.

51% certain
lead market 51%next 49%1 venuesettles Tue 3 Nov

Politics

Alliance won Latvia's Parliamentary election

Linke won Berlin, AfD took Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Alliance secured Latvia and Sweden Democrats fell short of gains.

51% certain
lead market 51%next 29%1 venuesettles Sun 20 Sept

Politics

Belit Onay elected mayor of Hannover

Frank Klingebiel won Salzgitter mayoralty while Eva Bender became Hannover's regional president.

44% certain
lead market 44%next 40%1 venuesettles Sun 13 Sept

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra93%Tue 3 Nov
  2. Fed Decision in September?: 25 bps increase54%Wed 16 Sept
  3. Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?: No99%Fri 6 Nov
  4. Brazil Presidential Election: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva48%Sun 4 Oct
  5. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No89%Wed 4 Nov
  6. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No93%Wed 4 Nov
  7. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)74%Wed 30 Sept
  8. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  9. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: Yes54%Sat 3 Oct
  10. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes53%Tue 1 Dec
  11. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No64%Tue 3 Nov
  12. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party87%Tue 3 Nov
  13. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro74%Sun 4 Oct
  14. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep50%Tue 3 Nov
  15. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes88%Sun 15 Nov
  16. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3091%Thu 1 Oct
  17. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No89%Sun 15 Nov
  18. Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes74%Wed 9 Dec
  19. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  20. Berlin State Election Winner: Linke51%Sun 20 Sept
  21. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  22. AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?: Yes91%Wed 30 Sept
  23. Israel closes its airspace by September 30?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  24. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  25. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No68%Tue 3 Nov
  26. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.0%40%Wed 9 Dec
  27. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)98%Wed 30 Sept
  28. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic87%Thu 1 Oct
  29. LA-06 House Election Winner: Republican Party84%Tue 3 Nov
  30. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  31. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes63%Tue 3 Nov
  32. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes87%Wed 30 Sept
  33. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  34. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: No51%Tue 3 Nov
  35. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  36. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  37. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  38. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No91%Sun 1 Nov
  39. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  40. Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time?: Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  41. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  42. Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Karen Bass65%Thu 31 Dec
  43. Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)99%Sun 13 Sept
  44. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  45. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula57%Fri 2 Oct
  46. Fed Decision in October?: No change66%Wed 28 Oct
  47. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes66%Wed 16 Sept
  48. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day94%Thu 31 Dec
  49. Quebec General Election Winner: PQ73%Mon 5 Oct
  50. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  51. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  52. Alaska Governor Election Winner : Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins61%Tue 3 Nov
  53. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Renan Santos43%Sun 4 Oct
  54. Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  55. Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?: No55%Wed 4 Nov
  56. Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?: No99%Sun 20 Sept
  57. Fed decisions (Jun-Sep): Other54%Wed 16 Sept
  58. Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?: Yes54%Wed 9 Dec
  59. Trump out as President by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  60. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner: AfD77%Sun 20 Sept
  61. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?: No97%Thu 31 Dec
  62. Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)88%Sun 20 Sept
  63. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No79%Thu 1 Oct
  64. Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?: No71%Mon 21 Sept
  65. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?: No98%Wed 16 Sept
  66. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic60%Fri 1 Jan
  67. Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026?: No90%Sun 1 Nov
  68. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  69. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No60%Fri 1 Jan
  70. Fed decisions (Jul–Oct): Other66%Wed 28 Oct
  71. Bank of Russia decision in September?: No Change90%Fri 11 Sept
  72. Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo: No94%Thu 31 Dec
  73. Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series: “Widow’s Bay”70%Mon 14 Sept
  74. United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–33936%Sun 20 Sept
  75. Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  76. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  77. Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?: Yes69%Sun 20 Sept
  78. Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?: Yes65%Wed 9 Dec
  79. Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?: 27-30%52%Sun 13 Sept
  80. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%37%Sun 4 Oct
  81. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?: Yes91%Fri 1 Jan
  82. Next Premier of Quebec: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon71%Mon 5 Oct
  83. Fed Decision in December?: No change47%Wed 9 Dec
  84. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes98%Sun 4 Oct
  85. Will Israel exist two years from now?: Yes99%Fri 18 Sept
  86. Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day56%Fri 1 Jan
  87. 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?: No51%Wed 16 Sept
  88. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No92%Sun 4 Oct
  89. Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner: AS86%Sat 3 Oct
  90. Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?: No93%Tue 10 Nov
  91. Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?: No85%Sat 3 Oct
  92. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?: Yes83%Fri 1 Jan
  93. Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: Yes86%Thu 1 Oct
  94. Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?: Yes77%Sun 13 Sept
  95. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No94%Fri 8 Jan
  96. Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series: Matthew Rhys – “Widow’s Bay”94%Mon 14 Sept
  97. Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  98. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?: No89%Thu 31 Dec
  99. Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series: “DTF St. Louis”91%Mon 14 Sept
  100. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Sweden Democrats (SD)81%Sun 13 Sept
  101. Emmys 2026: Outstanding drama series: “The Pitt”93%Mon 14 Sept
  102. Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?: No99%Wed 16 Sept
  103. Israel military action against Lebanon on September 26?: No61%Sat 26 Sept
  104. OpenAI is sued over Navier-Stokes?: No91%Tue 15 Sept
  105. Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  106. Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?: No78%Wed 16 Sept
  107. Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series: Jean Smart – “Hacks”92%Mon 14 Sept
  108. Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?: Anthropic90%Thu 1 Oct
  109. Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes97%Sun 4 Oct
  110. Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?: No52%Mon 21 Sept
  111. How many Emmys will “DTF St. Louis” win?: 0-199%Mon 14 Sept
  112. Osnabrück Mayoral Election Winner: Katharina Pötter81%Sun 13 Sept
  113. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Moderate Party (M)82%Sun 13 Sept
  114. Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026?: Yes87%Thu 1 Oct
  115. Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series: “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”84%Mon 14 Sept
  116. Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On): Anthropic89%Thu 1 Oct
  117. Will Israel attack Iraq in September 2026?: No94%Wed 30 Sept
  118. Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?: Yes95%Thu 1 Oct
  119. How many Emmys will “Hacks” win?: 2-361%Mon 14 Sept
  120. Will the Anthropic-Blackstone enterprise AI services firm name its first customer by Sept 30, 2026?: Yes92%Wed 30 Sept
  121. Sweden Parliamentary Election: Örebropartiet Win Seats?: No81%Sun 13 Sept
  122. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 4th Place: Centre Party (C)39%Sun 13 Sept
  123. Hannover Mayoral Election Winner: Belit Onay75%Sun 13 Sept
  124. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?: Anthropic88%Thu 1 Oct
  125. Will a streaming series not from HBO win Best Drama Series at the 2026 Emmys?: No93%Tue 15 Sept
  126. How many Emmys will “Beef” win?: 0-152%Mon 14 Sept
  127. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 6th Place: Centre Party (C)27%Sun 13 Sept
  128. Sweden Parliamentary Elections: Social Democratic Party # of seats?: <10566%Sun 13 Sept
  129. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of September?: Anthropic90%Thu 1 Oct
  130. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of September?: Anthropic81%Thu 1 Oct
  131. How many Emmys will “Widow's Bay” win?: 4-567%Mon 14 Sept
  132. Best AI model on September 14?: claude-fable-5.1-max81%Mon 14 Sept
  133. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?: Anthropic97%Thu 1 Oct
  134. Fed interest rate decision — September 2026: 25 bps increase52%Wed 16 Sept
  135. 🇸🇪 Will Sweden’s Social Democrats win at least 31% of the vote in the September 13, 2026 general election?: No80%Sun 13 Sept
  136. Wolfsburg Mayoral Election Winner: Dennis Weilmann98%Sun 13 Sept
  137. Hannover Region Presidential Election Winner: Eva Bender71%Sun 13 Sept
  138. How many dissent at the September Fed meeting?: 4+73%Wed 16 Sept
  139. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 5th Place: Left Party (V)49%Sun 13 Sept
  140. Salzgitter Mayoral Election Winner: Frank Klingebiel99%Sun 13 Sept
  141. Sweden Parliamentary Election: V Over/Under 7%?: Over64%Sun 13 Sept
  142. Oldenburg Mayoral Election Winner: Ulf Prange51%Sun 13 Sept
  143. Göttingen Mayoral Election Winner: Onyeka Oshionwu44%Sun 13 Sept
  144. Sweden Parliamentary Election: Turnout: 84-86%59%Sun 13 Sept
  145. Sweden Parliamentary Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory: S 7-10%89%Sun 13 Sept
  146. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No95%Sat 31 Oct
  147. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  148. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane57%Sat 31 Oct
  149. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)91%Thu 31 Dec
  150. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei83%Thu 31 Dec
  151. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: No50%Wed 4 Nov
  152. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No96%Wed 18 Nov
  153. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  154. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes62%Tue 3 Nov
  155. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot54%Thu 31 Dec
  156. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Yulia Navalnaya20%Sat 10 Oct
  157. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: Yes50%Tue 1 Dec
  158. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  159. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  160. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  161. Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Magdalena Andersson80%Sun 13 Sept
  162. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  163. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli85%Sun 6 Dec
  164. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro84%Thu 31 Dec
  165. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  166. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  167. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  168. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No52%Wed 4 Nov
  169. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes73%Wed 4 Nov
  170. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes92%Fri 2 Oct
  171. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  172. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  173. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  174. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes68%Tue 3 Nov
  175. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party52%Tue 3 Nov
  176. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No80%Tue 3 Nov
  177. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  178. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  179. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  180. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  181. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  182. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  183. Will Brett Smiley win the 2026 Democratic primary for Mayor of Providence?: No99%Sat 12 Sept
  184. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  185. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  186. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  187. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  188. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No93%Thu 31 Dec
  189. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  190. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  191. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  192. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  193. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  194. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  195. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No86%Tue 3 Nov
  196. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  197. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  198. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  199. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  200. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers31%Sat 31 Oct
  201. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No83%Thu 31 Dec
  202. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No66%Mon 30 Nov
  203. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes95%Sun 6 Dec
  204. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  205. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No96%Sun 27 Sept
  206. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  207. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No80%Fri 1 Jan
  208. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Inter Miami CF20%Sat 19 Dec
  209. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  210. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic58%Thu 31 Dec
  211. Next Prime Minister of Romania?: Alexandru Nazare42%Thu 31 Dec
  212. Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?: Yes90%Thu 1 Oct
  213. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 498%Fri 1 Jan
  214. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 10?: Yes91%Thu 10 Sept
  215. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  216. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  217. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  218. Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?: No85%Wed 30 Sept
  219. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA79%Thu 31 Dec
  220. FC Bayern München vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: FC Bayern München78%Thu 10 Sept
  221. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  222. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes54%Mon 23 Nov
  223. 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis): Alexander Zverev50%Sun 13 Sept
  224. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes83%Wed 14 Oct
  225. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  226. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  227. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  228. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202692%Fri 1 Jan
  229. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  230. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  231. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  232. Will a non-MF group be proved this month?: Yes93%Wed 28 Oct
  233. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  234. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  235. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  236. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  237. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No87%Thu 1 Oct
  238. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  239. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  240. Will YES have more holders than NO?: Yes84%Mon 14 Sept
  241. Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $83 on September 10, 2026?: Yes99%Thu 10 Sept
  242. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  243. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No85%Sun 3 Jan
  244. US recession by end of 2026?: No93%Sun 31 Jan
  245. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes65%Mon 30 Nov
  246. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  247. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  248. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: No63%Fri 1 Jan
  249. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes86%Wed 14 Oct
  250. US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on September 14 2026?: Yes96%Mon 14 Sept
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.