AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Thursday, 10 September 2026
Edition of Tuesday, 9 March 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Thu 10 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Tuesday, 9 March 2027.

Politics

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins elected Alaska governor

Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins won the governor's race while Republican Dan Sullivan was defeated for the senate seat.

51% certain
lead market 51%next 49%1 venuesettles Tue 3 Nov3 markets behind this

Alaskans voted in two statewide contests on Tuesday. Voters elected Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins as governor. They also rejected incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan for a second term.

Kreiss-Tomkins, a Democrat, took office as Alaska's chief executive. His win placed a Democrat in the governor's mansion. The election concluded on Tuesday.

Incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan, a Republican, was defeated in the contest. The result confirmed that a Democrat did not capture the senate seat. The outcome was decided on Tuesday alongside the gubernatorial vote.

The combined results gave Alaska a Democratic governor but no Democratic senator. Voters therefore split their support between parties in the two races. The pattern reflected a mixed verdict for the parties.

Analysis

The governor's victory gives the Democratic Party executive authority in a state that has often leaned Republican, opening the possibility for policy changes aligned with its platform. However, without a Democratic senator, the party cannot shape Alaska's representation in the U.S. Senate.

Sullivan's loss removes an experienced Republican from the senate, but the seat remains out of Democratic hands, meaning Republicans are likely to retain the position. The identity of the new senator is not provided, leaving the exact partisan balance uncertain. This uncertainty constrains predictions about Alaska's influence in Washington.

Alaska voters demonstrated a willingness to split tickets, supporting a Democrat for governor while rejecting a Democrat for senate. Such behavior suggests that candidates' individual appeal may outweigh party affiliation in statewide elections. Future campaigns will need to address this nuanced electorate, and the state's legislative dynamics may evolve accordingly.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No, 64% settles Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · manifold · see the market
Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: No, 51% settles Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · manifold · see the market
Alaska Governor Election Winner : Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, 61% settles Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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