39%Fed ended 2026 with policy rate at 4.0% after tightening59%Anthropic topped AI model performance and hit $1.75 trillion valuation59%Extended token topped $150 million FDV on launch day56%Gadi Eizenkot took office as Israel's Prime Minister81%Mojtaba Khamenei stayed Iran's leader as nuclear program stalled86%United States stayed in NATO and avoided war with Iran93%China avoided military action against Taiwan in 202653%Spider-Man: Brand New Day posted 2026's biggest opening weekend77%Netanyahu lost the Israeli election in 202654%Democrats won California governorship and other key races89%Republicans lost house majority after 2026 midterms39%Lula Elected president as PL dominates Congress and key governorships

AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Wednesday, 9 September 2026
Edition of Monday, 8 March 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Wed 9 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Monday, 8 March 2027.

Economics

Fed ended 2026 with policy rate at 4.0% after tightening

The central bank delivered several hikes in 2026, kept the rate steady at 4.0% and did not cut.

39% certain
lead market 39%next 24%1 venuesettles Wed 9 Dec

The Federal Reserve completed a tightening cycle throughout 2026. It delivered several rate hikes during the year. By the end of December the policy rate stood at 4.0%. No cuts were implemented at any point.

The board raised rates at least once during 2026. In October the Fed left the target unchanged. A similar hold occurred at the December meeting.

Read the full report

Economics

NVIDIA became world's Largest company

Japan's central Bank lifted rates by 25 basis points and Zimbabwe's lithium ban cut supply by over 5,000 tonnes.

92% certain
lead market 92%next 8%1 venuesettles Tue 29 Sept

Politics

Belit Onay elected mayor of Hannover

Frank Klingebiel won the Salzgitter Mayoral race and Eva Bender secured the Hannover regional presidency.

54% certain
lead market 54%next 46%1 venuesettles Sun 13 Sept

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra93%Tue 3 Nov
  2. Fed Decision in September?: 25 bps increase53%Wed 16 Sept
  3. Brazil Presidential Election: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva50%Sun 4 Oct
  4. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No89%Wed 4 Nov
  5. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No93%Wed 4 Nov
  6. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  7. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  8. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)90%Thu 31 Dec
  9. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: Yes56%Sat 3 Oct
  10. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei81%Thu 31 Dec
  11. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes62%Tue 3 Nov
  12. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  13. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot56%Thu 31 Dec
  14. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  15. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  16. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)97%Wed 30 Sept
  17. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes73%Wed 4 Nov
  18. Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes71%Wed 9 Dec
  19. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3092%Thu 1 Oct
  20. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  21. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  22. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro82%Sun 4 Oct
  23. Berlin State Election Winner: Linke49%Sun 20 Sept
  24. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day92%Thu 31 Dec
  25. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.0%39%Wed 9 Dec
  26. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  27. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  28. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  29. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic85%Thu 1 Oct
  30. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No93%Thu 31 Dec
  31. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  32. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  33. Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time?: Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  34. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes54%Mon 23 Nov
  35. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes83%Wed 14 Oct
  36. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula56%Fri 2 Oct
  37. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No80%Fri 1 Jan
  38. 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis): Carlos Alcaraz37%Sun 13 Sept
  39. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  40. US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz: Carlos Alcaraz59%Tue 15 Sept
  41. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  42. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  43. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes86%Wed 14 Oct
  44. Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Karen Bass65%Thu 31 Dec
  45. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 499%Fri 1 Jan
  46. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  47. Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 5 kt on September 29, 2026?: Yes92%Tue 29 Sept
  48. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  49. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 9?: No90%Wed 9 Sept
  50. Fed Decision in October?: No change66%Wed 28 Oct
  51. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  52. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  53. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  54. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  55. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  56. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No76%Fri 1 Jan
  57. Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  58. Largest Company end of September?: NVIDIA94%Wed 30 Sept
  59. Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?: Yes55%Wed 9 Dec
  60. Fed decisions (Jun-Sep): Other54%Wed 16 Sept
  61. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  62. ECB Interest Rates: September 2026: 25 bps increase99%Thu 10 Sept
  63. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  64. Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos)82%Sun 4 Oct
  65. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner: AfD79%Sun 20 Sept
  66. 2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis): Aryna Sabalenka37%Sun 13 Sept
  67. Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  68. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic59%Fri 1 Jan
  69. Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)88%Sun 20 Sept
  70. Will an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia be issued by Oct 31, 2026?: No96%Sat 31 Oct
  71. Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  72. Will Netanyahu win the next elections in Israel?: No82%Tue 10 Nov
  73. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?: No96%Wed 16 Sept
  74. US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?: No95%Thu 31 Dec
  75. Fed decisions (Jul–Oct): Other66%Wed 28 Oct
  76. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes77%Sat 31 Oct
  77. United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–33937%Sun 20 Sept
  78. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  79. Bank of Japan Decision in September?: 25 bps increase97%Fri 18 Sept
  80. Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?: Yes65%Wed 9 Dec
  81. Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  82. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?: No97%Thu 31 Dec
  83. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?: Yes90%Fri 1 Jan
  84. Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?: No93%Tue 10 Nov
  85. Fed Decision in December?: No change48%Wed 9 Dec
  86. Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?: Yes59%Fri 1 Jan
  87. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won: PL90%Sun 4 Oct
  88. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes97%Sun 4 Oct
  89. Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day53%Fri 1 Jan
  90. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?: Yes87%Fri 1 Jan
  91. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No92%Sun 4 Oct
  92. StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  93. Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  94. Best Chinese AI Company end of September?: Alibaba68%Thu 1 Oct
  95. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No94%Fri 8 Jan
  96. Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  97. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes91%Mon 5 Oct
  98. Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?: No57%Sat 12 Sept
  99. Ceará Governor Election Winner: Ciro Gomes63%Sun 4 Oct
  100. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%39%Sun 4 Oct
  101. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro86%Mon 5 Oct
  102. Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?: Anthropic93%Thu 1 Oct
  103. Will Dan McKee be renominated for Governor of Rhode Island in 2026?: No97%Wed 9 Sept
  104. Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes97%Sun 4 Oct
  105. Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 11, 2026?: No81%Sat 12 Sept
  106. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?: OpenAI83%Thu 1 Oct
  107. Will Katharina Reiche stop being the german Minister of Energy by the next regular election?: No55%Sun 27 Sept
  108. Rhode Island Attorney General Democratic Primary Winner: Kim Ahern76%Wed 9 Sept
  109. Providence, RI Democratic Mayoral Nominee: David Morales80%Wed 9 Sept
  110. Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner: PL54%Sun 4 Oct
  111. Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco53%Sun 4 Oct
  112. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 9?: No85%Wed 9 Sept
  113. 2026 Bangsamoro Parliament Election: Party Winner: BFP63%Mon 14 Sept
  114. Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On): Anthropic86%Thu 1 Oct
  115. Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?: Yes92%Thu 1 Oct
  116. Delaware Republican Senate Primary Winner: Michael Katz93%Tue 15 Sept
  117. Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September?: OpenAI88%Thu 1 Oct
  118. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?: Anthropic86%Thu 1 Oct
  119. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of September?: Anthropic85%Thu 1 Oct
  120. Hannover Mayoral Election Winner: Belit Onay82%Sun 13 Sept
  121. Argentina monthly inflation — August 2026: Between 1.5% and 1.7%78%Thu 10 Sept
  122. Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of September?: OpenAI40%Thu 1 Oct
  123. Fed interest rate decision — September 2026: 25 bps increase52%Wed 16 Sept
  124. Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner: Mike Derry96%Mon 14 Sept
  125. Argentina Monthly Inflation - August: 1.5-1.7%79%Thu 10 Sept
  126. Hannover Region Presidential Election Winner: Eva Bender71%Sun 13 Sept
  127. Okinawa Governor Election Winner: Genta Koja68%Sun 13 Sept
  128. Braunschweig Mayoral Election Winner: Thorsten Kornblum94%Sun 13 Sept
  129. Salzgitter Mayoral Election Winner: Frank Klingebiel96%Sun 13 Sept
  130. Oldenburg Mayoral Election Winner: Jascha Rohr62%Sun 13 Sept
  131. Brazil Selic rate decision — September 2026 COPOM meeting: 25 bps decrease96%Tue 15 Sept
  132. Göttingen Mayoral Election Winner: Onyeka Oshionwu54%Sun 13 Sept
  133. White House # posts September 4 - September 11, 2026?: 200+57%Fri 11 Sept
  134. Rhode Island Lieutenant Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Xaykham Khamsyvoravong55%Wed 9 Sept
  135. Trump approval rating on September 11?: 38.0–38.462%Fri 11 Sept
  136. Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?: No99%Fri 6 Nov
  137. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No95%Sat 31 Oct
  138. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)72%Wed 30 Sept
  139. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane57%Sat 31 Oct
  140. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes51%Wed 4 Nov
  141. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No96%Wed 18 Nov
  142. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: No51%Tue 1 Dec
  143. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No64%Tue 3 Nov
  144. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No51%Tue 1 Dec
  145. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party87%Tue 3 Nov
  146. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes88%Sun 15 Nov
  147. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Yulia Navalnaya19%Sat 10 Oct
  148. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No89%Sun 15 Nov
  149. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep51%Tue 3 Nov
  150. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  151. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  152. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli82%Sun 6 Dec
  153. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  154. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro82%Thu 31 Dec
  155. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  156. AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?: Yes97%Wed 30 Sept
  157. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No52%Wed 4 Nov
  158. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes92%Fri 2 Oct
  159. Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Magdalena Andersson77%Sun 13 Sept
  160. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  161. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  162. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  163. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes68%Tue 3 Nov
  164. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No80%Tue 3 Nov
  165. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  166. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  167. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  168. Israel closes its airspace by September 30?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  169. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  170. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  171. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes92%Sun 6 Dec
  172. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes63%Tue 3 Nov
  173. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  174. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No69%Tue 3 Nov
  175. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  176. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party52%Tue 3 Nov
  177. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  178. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  179. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: No51%Tue 3 Nov
  180. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  181. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No86%Tue 3 Nov
  182. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  183. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  184. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No66%Mon 30 Nov
  185. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  186. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers34%Sat 31 Oct
  187. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No96%Sun 27 Sept
  188. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  189. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  190. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  191. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  192. Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)99%Sun 13 Sept
  193. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No82%Thu 31 Dec
  194. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  195. Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?: Yes90%Thu 1 Oct
  196. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  197. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  198. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes86%Wed 30 Sept
  199. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  200. Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?: No89%Wed 30 Sept
  201. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Inter Miami CF20%Sat 19 Dec
  202. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  203. Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  204. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  205. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  206. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic59%Thu 31 Dec
  207. NY-21 House Election Winner: Republican Party84%Tue 3 Nov
  208. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  209. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  210. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  211. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  212. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  213. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No91%Sun 1 Nov
  214. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  215. Will a non-MF group be proved this month?: Yes85%Wed 28 Oct
  216. Sporting CP vs. Galatasaray SK: Sporting CP63%Wed 9 Sept
  217. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes66%Wed 16 Sept
  218. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes65%Mon 30 Nov
  219. Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. ŠK Slovan Bratislava: Paris Saint-Germain FC76%Wed 9 Sept
  220. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  221. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA78%Thu 31 Dec
  222. Will YES have more holders than NO?: Yes78%Mon 14 Sept
  223. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No65%Tue 13 Oct
  224. Will Seth Bodnar win Montanas Senate Election?: No91%Tue 3 Nov
  225. 🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️‍⚧️✨: No71%Mon 2 Nov
  226. "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" breaks the record for the biggest domestic lifetime gross of all time?: Yes99%Sun 4 Oct
  227. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  228. Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece: No67%Sat 3 Oct
  229. Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?: No68%Fri 6 Nov
  230. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No58%Tue 6 Oct
  231. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  232. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No76%Fri 1 Jan
  233. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  234. Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?: No55%Wed 4 Nov
  235. Elon Musk significantly backs a third party in Midterms?: No97%Thu 5 Nov
  236. Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?: No95%Mon 30 Nov
  237. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  238. Will Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  239. Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  240. Democrats win the 2026 Special Election for Senate in Florida?: No91%Tue 3 Nov
  241. El-Sayed comdemn or disavow Hasan Piker before midterms?: No85%Mon 2 Nov
  242. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  243. Will Hasan Piker ever admit that he shocked his dog? [ within 1 year ] : No94%Wed 14 Oct
  244. Will Aliens be discovered in the next three years?: No98%Sat 7 Nov
  245. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  246. Will Trump's hush money convictions be overturned due to the Supreme Court's grant of presidential immunity?: No89%Mon 30 Nov
  247. Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  248. Will Democrats win the Texas Gubernatorial election?: No82%Tue 3 Nov
  249. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  250. Will the winner of the 2026 Vuelta a España be Roglic or Pogacar?: No82%Sun 13 Sept
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.