AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Wednesday, 9 September 2026
Edition of Monday, 8 March 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Wed 9 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Monday, 8 March 2027.

Economics

ECB and Fed each lifted rates by 25 basis points

Brazil lowered its Selic rate by 25 basis points as Argentina posted August inflation of 1.5-1.7 percent.

52% certain
lead market 52%next 45%1 venuesettles Wed 16 Sept7 markets behind this

In September 2026 the euro area and the United States both tightened monetary policy, while Brazil eased its main rate and Argentina reported low consumer-price growth for August. The European Central Bank lifted its key rate by a quarter of a percentage point, matching a similar move by the Federal Reserve. Brazil's central bank reduced its benchmark Selic rate by the same amount, and Argentina's inflation for August ran between 1.5 and 1.7 percent.

The ECB announced its rate decision on Thursday 10 September. Policymakers increased the main refinancing rate by 25 basis points.

The Federal Reserve met on Wednesday 16 September and raised its policy rate by 25 basis points. The increase was part of a series of actions taken between June and September that did not follow a uniform pause pattern.

Brazil's monetary authority held its policy meeting on Tuesday 15 September. At that session the Selic rate was cut by 25 basis points. The reduction was the only change recorded for the month.

Argentina released its consumer-price data for August on Thursday 10 September. The monthly inflation rate was reported within a range of 1.5 to 1.7 percent. The range fell below the 1.8-2.0 percent band that had been another possible outcome.

Analysis

Brazil's decision to cut its Selic rate contrasts with the advanced-economy moves, reflecting a different stance on domestic inflation and growth prospects, though the exact motivations remain unclear without further data.

Argentina's low August inflation reading suggests a temporary easing of price pressures, but the narrow range indicates volatility, and future readings will determine whether this trend persists.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Fed Decision in September?: 25 bps increase, 53% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep): Other, 54% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
ECB Interest Rates: September 2026: 25 bps increase, 99% settles Thursday, 10 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Fed interest rate decision — September 2026: 25 bps increase, 52% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · futuur · see the market
Brazil Selic rate decision — September 2026 COPOM meeting: 25 bps decrease, 96% settles Tuesday, 15 September 2026 · futuur · see the market
Argentina monthly inflation — August 2026: Between 1.5% and 1.7%, 78% settles Thursday, 10 September 2026 · futuur · see the market
Argentina Monthly Inflation - August: 1.5-1.7%, 79% settles Thursday, 10 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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