41%Fed kept policy rate at 4% throughout 202661%Anthropic led AI model rankings in 202659%Extended token topped $150 million while others fell short33%Israel installed Gadi Eizenkot as Prime Minister52%Spider-Man: Brand New Day topped 2026 box office87%U.S. did not acquire any part of Greenland in 202677%Netanyahu lost the Israeli election52%Democrats win California and Wisconsin governorships51%Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September52%Tarcísio de Freitas Elected governor of São Paulo73%Parti Québécois won Quebec election, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon became Premier41%Lula elected Brazil president after narrow first-round Victory

AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Tuesday, 8 September 2026
Edition of Sunday, 7 March 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Tue 8 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Sunday, 7 March 2027.

Economics

Fed kept policy rate at 4% throughout 2026

The central bank also avoided any cuts and never let the rate fall below 3%.

41% certain
lead market 41%next 22%1 venuesettles Wed 9 Dec

The Federal Reserve held its target federal funds rate at 4.0% for the entire 2026 calendar year. After issuing a rate Hike earlier in the year, the board left the rate unchanged at subsequent meetings. No cuts were implemented at any point during 2026.

The July meeting introduced an increase that pushed the rate toward the 4% level. The October meeting left the policy rate unchanged, as did the December meeting. The series of decisions from July through October were not all pauses, confirming the earlier increase.

Read the full report

World

Netanyahu lost the Israeli election

Israel also struck four countries and kept its cease-fire with Iran through October.

77% certain
lead market 77%next 24%1 venuesettles Sat 31 Oct

Culture

The Pitt won Outstanding Drama series

The Late Show With Stephen Colbert took Outstanding variety series while Widow's Bay claimed Outstanding comedy series.

57% certain
lead market 57%next 41%1 venuesettles Mon 14 Sept

Politics

BFP won Bangsamoro Parliament election

The BFP secured the Bangsamoro Parliament and Genta Koja defeated Denny Tamaki for Okinawa governor.

64% certain
lead market 64%next 33%1 venuesettles Mon 14 Sept

Politics

Dennis Weilmann elected mayor of Wolfsburg

On Sunday, Dennis Weilmann was elected mayor of Wolfsburg, and Thorsten Kornblum won Braunschweig.

56% certain
lead market 56%next 44%1 venuesettles Sun 13 Sept

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Tue 3 Nov
  2. Fed Decision in September?: 25 bps increase51%Wed 16 Sept
  3. Brazil Presidential Election: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva51%Sun 4 Oct
  4. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)67%Wed 30 Sept
  5. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)89%Thu 31 Dec
  6. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: Yes57%Sat 3 Oct
  7. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  8. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot51%Thu 31 Dec
  9. Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Magdalena Andersson77%Sun 13 Sept
  10. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro88%Sun 4 Oct
  11. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No52%Wed 4 Nov
  12. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes73%Wed 4 Nov
  13. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3092%Thu 1 Oct
  14. Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes71%Wed 9 Dec
  15. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  16. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  17. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day92%Thu 31 Dec
  18. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.0%41%Wed 9 Dec
  19. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No86%Tue 3 Nov
  20. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No92%Thu 31 Dec
  21. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  22. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  23. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  24. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  25. Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%Sun 13 Sept
  26. Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time?: Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  27. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)99%Wed 30 Sept
  28. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes83%Wed 14 Oct
  29. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  30. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula57%Fri 2 Oct
  31. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  32. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 498%Fri 1 Jan
  33. Next Prime Minister of Romania?: Alexandru Nazare33%Thu 31 Dec
  34. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  35. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes86%Wed 14 Oct
  36. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  37. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  38. Will Democrats win the Texas Gubernatorial election?: No83%Tue 3 Nov
  39. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  40. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  41. Fed Decision in October?: No change66%Wed 28 Oct
  42. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  43. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  44. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  45. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No74%Fri 1 Jan
  46. Fed decisions (Jun-Sep): Other51%Wed 16 Sept
  47. Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  48. Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?: No75%Fri 1 Jan
  49. Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?: No99%Sun 20 Sept
  50. Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?: Yes53%Wed 9 Dec
  51. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Augusto Cury54%Sun 4 Oct
  52. Quebec General Election Winner: PQ73%Mon 5 Oct
  53. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  54. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic61%Fri 1 Jan
  55. Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos)79%Sun 4 Oct
  56. Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series: “Widow’s Bay”77%Mon 14 Sept
  57. Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)87%Sun 20 Sept
  58. Will Netanyahu win the next elections in Israel?: No82%Tue 10 Nov
  59. Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election?: Yes89%Sat 12 Sept
  60. Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  61. Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?: No100%Thu 8 Oct
  62. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?: No97%Thu 31 Dec
  63. Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  64. Fed decisions (Jul–Oct): Other65%Wed 28 Oct
  65. Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  66. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes77%Sat 31 Oct
  67. Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?: Yes63%Wed 9 Dec
  68. Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?: Yes65%Sun 20 Sept
  69. Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  70. 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?: No54%Wed 16 Sept
  71. United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–33936%Sun 20 Sept
  72. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%41%Sun 4 Oct
  73. StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  74. Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?: No93%Tue 10 Nov
  75. Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?: No85%Sat 3 Oct
  76. Fed Decision in December?: No change48%Wed 9 Dec
  77. Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?: Yes59%Fri 1 Jan
  78. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo96%Sun 4 Oct
  79. Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?: 27-30%53%Sun 13 Sept
  80. Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday52%Fri 1 Jan
  81. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No95%Sun 4 Oct
  82. Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  83. Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?: No99%Wed 16 Sept
  84. São Paulo Governor Election Winner: Tarcísio de Freitas99%Sun 4 Oct
  85. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No94%Fri 8 Jan
  86. StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  87. Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: Yes56%Thu 24 Sept
  88. Will an American man reach the 2026 US Open men's singles semifinals?: Yes99%Tue 15 Sept
  89. Emmys 2026: Outstanding drama series: “The Pitt”94%Mon 14 Sept
  90. Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at its next meeting?: No98%Wed 23 Sept
  91. Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?: Yes59%Sun 13 Sept
  92. US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz: Carlos Alcaraz78%Tue 15 Sept
  93. Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series: “DTF St. Louis”73%Mon 14 Sept
  94. Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?: No60%Mon 21 Sept
  95. US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?: Yes75%Wed 30 Sept
  96. Ceará Governor Election Winner: Ciro Gomes64%Sun 4 Oct
  97. Will the US sign a peace agreement based on Iran's 14-point plan before September 30, 2026?: No58%Wed 30 Sept
  98. Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  99. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes93%Mon 5 Oct
  100. Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026?: Yes87%Thu 1 Oct
  101. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Sweden Democrats (SD)77%Sun 13 Sept
  102. Next Premier of Quebec: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon74%Mon 5 Oct
  103. Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No99%Sun 4 Oct
  104. Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  105. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro83%Mon 5 Oct
  106. Rhode Island Attorney General Democratic Primary Winner: Kim Ahern86%Wed 9 Sept
  107. Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco52%Sun 4 Oct
  108. How many Emmys will “DTF St. Louis” win?: 0-199%Mon 14 Sept
  109. Bahia Governor Election Winner: Jerônimo Rodrigues53%Sun 4 Oct
  110. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?: OpenAI84%Thu 1 Oct
  111. Osnabrück Mayoral Election Winner: Katharina Pötter88%Sun 13 Sept
  112. 2026 Bangsamoro Parliament Election: Party Winner: BFP64%Mon 14 Sept
  113. Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No100%Sun 4 Oct
  114. Providence, RI Democratic Mayoral Nominee: David Morales88%Wed 9 Sept
  115. Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: No73%Thu 24 Sept
  116. Will Jannik Sinner OR Ben Shelton win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: No92%Thu 24 Sept
  117. How many Emmys will “Hacks” win?: 2-360%Mon 14 Sept
  118. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Moderate Party (M)78%Sun 13 Sept
  119. Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: No94%Thu 24 Sept
  120. Will a streaming series not from HBO win Best Drama Series at the 2026 Emmys?: No93%Tue 15 Sept
  121. Sweden Parliamentary Election: Örebropartiet Win Seats?: No81%Sun 13 Sept
  122. Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series: “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”94%Mon 14 Sept
  123. Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September?: OpenAI63%Thu 1 Oct
  124. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 4th Place: Centre Party (C)38%Sun 13 Sept
  125. Will Alexander Zverev OR Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: Yes82%Thu 24 Sept
  126. US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen: Frances Tiafoe59%Tue 15 Sept
  127. How many Emmys will “Beef” win?: 0-157%Mon 14 Sept
  128. Hannover Mayoral Election Winner: Belit Onay83%Sun 13 Sept
  129. Will OpenAI classify any model as "Critical" capability under its Preparedness Framework before Oct 1, 2026?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  130. Sweden Parliamentary Elections: Social Democratic Party # of seats?: <10552%Sun 13 Sept
  131. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 5th Place: Green Party (MP)31%Sun 13 Sept
  132. Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of September?: OpenAI93%Thu 1 Oct
  133. Will Jannik Sinner OR Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: Yes57%Thu 24 Sept
  134. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 6th Place: Green Party (MP)30%Sun 13 Sept
  135. Hannover Region Presidential Election Winner: Eva Bender75%Sun 13 Sept
  136. Wolfsburg Mayoral Election Winner: Dennis Weilmann99%Sun 13 Sept
  137. Okinawa Governor Election Winner: Genta Koja68%Sun 13 Sept
  138. Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SD or M?: SD72%Sun 13 Sept
  139. Braunschweig Mayoral Election Winner: Thorsten Kornblum99%Sun 13 Sept
  140. 🇸🇪 Will Sweden’s Social Democrats win at least 31% of the vote in the September 13, 2026 general election?: No54%Sun 13 Sept
  141. Salzgitter Mayoral Election Winner: Frank Klingebiel95%Sun 13 Sept
  142. Oldenburg Mayoral Election Winner: Jascha Rohr63%Sun 13 Sept
  143. Israel Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List?: Yes77%Tue 8 Sept
  144. Rhode Island Lieutenant Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Xaykham Khamsyvoravong50%Wed 9 Sept
  145. Göttingen Mayoral Election Winner: Onyeka Oshionwu56%Sun 13 Sept
  146. Sweden Parliamentary Election: V Over/Under 7%?: Over78%Sun 13 Sept
  147. Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?: No99%Fri 6 Nov
  148. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No88%Wed 4 Nov
  149. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No92%Wed 4 Nov
  150. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  151. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  152. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane57%Sat 31 Oct
  153. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: No50%Wed 4 Nov
  154. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei80%Thu 31 Dec
  155. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No96%Wed 18 Nov
  156. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes62%Tue 3 Nov
  157. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: No51%Tue 1 Dec
  158. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No65%Tue 3 Nov
  159. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No50%Tue 1 Dec
  160. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party87%Tue 3 Nov
  161. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes88%Sun 15 Nov
  162. Will my this market post cross 200k Mana mark? (THIS ONE): Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  163. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Yulia Navalnaya18%Sat 10 Oct
  164. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No89%Sun 15 Nov
  165. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  166. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  167. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  168. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli82%Sun 6 Dec
  169. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep51%Tue 3 Nov
  170. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  171. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  172. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro82%Thu 31 Dec
  173. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  174. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes92%Fri 2 Oct
  175. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  176. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  177. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  178. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes67%Tue 3 Nov
  179. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No80%Tue 3 Nov
  180. Berlin State Election Winner: Linke49%Sun 20 Sept
  181. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  182. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  183. MS-01 House Election Winner: Republican Party89%Tue 3 Nov
  184. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  185. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  186. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  187. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes92%Sun 6 Dec
  188. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  189. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes63%Tue 3 Nov
  190. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No69%Tue 3 Nov
  191. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  192. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  193. Israel closes its airspace by September 30?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  194. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party51%Tue 3 Nov
  195. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  196. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  197. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: No51%Tue 3 Nov
  198. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  199. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  200. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  201. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers30%Sat 31 Oct
  202. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No66%Mon 30 Nov
  203. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  204. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  205. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  206. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic84%Thu 1 Oct
  207. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  208. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No96%Sun 27 Sept
  209. AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?: No51%Wed 30 Sept
  210. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  211. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  212. Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?: Yes90%Thu 1 Oct
  213. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  214. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  215. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No76%Thu 31 Dec
  216. 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis): Carlos Alcaraz55%Sun 13 Sept
  217. Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?: No89%Wed 30 Sept
  218. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  219. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Inter Miami CF20%Sat 19 Dec
  220. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  221. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  222. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes88%Wed 30 Sept
  223. Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  224. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes54%Mon 23 Nov
  225. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  226. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  227. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  228. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  229. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund57%Tue 8 Sept
  230. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  231. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  232. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  233. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  234. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  235. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No90%Sun 1 Nov
  236. Will a non-MF group be proved this month?: Yes87%Wed 28 Oct
  237. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes65%Mon 30 Nov
  238. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes66%Wed 16 Sept
  239. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  240. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA78%Thu 31 Dec
  241. Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Karen Bass65%Thu 31 Dec
  242. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No65%Tue 13 Oct
  243. Will Seth Bodnar win Montanas Senate Election?: No91%Tue 3 Nov
  244. 🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️‍⚧️✨: No71%Mon 2 Nov
  245. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic59%Thu 31 Dec
  246. "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" breaks the record for the biggest domestic lifetime gross of all time?: Yes99%Sun 4 Oct
  247. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  248. Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece: No67%Sat 3 Oct
  249. Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?: No68%Fri 6 Nov
  250. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.