AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Sunday, 6 September 2026
Edition of Friday, 5 March 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sun 6 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Friday, 5 March 2027.

Economics

China posted 4-5% Growth in 2026, outpacing U.S. expansion

China grew 4-5% in 2026 while the U.S. expanded 2-2.5% and did not fall into recession.

54% certain
lead market 54%next 36%2 venuessettles Fri 29 Jan

China's economy expanded by between four and five percent in 2026, while the United States grew at a more modest pace. U.S. gross domestic product rose by roughly two to two and a half percent over the same year. Both economies avoided a recession through the end of 2026.

The data confirmed that the United States did not enter a recession by the close of 2026.

Read the full report

World

Vladimir Putin remained Russia's president

Volodymyr Zelenskyy also stayed in office in Ukraine while Donald Trump remained out of the U.S. presidency.

93% certain
lead market 93%next 8%1 venuesettles Thu 31 Dec

Politics

United States avoided Oct. 1 shutdown

The White House still had no Press Secretary named, and President Donald Trump remained in office.

77% certain
lead market 77%next 33%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Oct

Politics

Greens entered Saxony-Anhalt Landtag

The Greens entered Saxony-Anhalt's Landtag and the Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points.

73% certain
lead market 73%next 27%1 venuesettles Sun 20 Sept

Politics

CDU won Berlin state election

The Alternative for Germany also won Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliament and Katharina Pötter became mayor of Osnabrück.

45% certain
lead market 45%next 36%1 venuesettles Sun 20 Sept

Sports

Carlos Alcaraz won US Open men's title

Aryna Sabalenka took the women's title, an American man failed to reach the final, and Learner Tien defeated Jakub Mensik.

26% certain
lead market 26%next 18%1 venuesettles Sun 13 Sept

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?: No99%Fri 6 Nov
  2. Brazil Presidential Election: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva53%Sun 4 Oct
  3. Fed Decision in September?: No change49%Wed 16 Sept
  4. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra93%Tue 3 Nov
  5. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  6. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei79%Thu 31 Dec
  7. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: Yes55%Sat 3 Oct
  8. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  9. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot50%Thu 31 Dec
  10. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party88%Tue 3 Nov
  11. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes89%Sun 15 Nov
  12. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  13. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro86%Sun 4 Oct
  14. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  15. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep51%Tue 3 Nov
  16. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  17. Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes72%Wed 9 Dec
  18. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  19. Berlin State Election Winner: CDU45%Sun 20 Sept
  20. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No72%Tue 3 Nov
  21. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA78%Thu 31 Dec
  22. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  23. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.0%40%Wed 9 Dec
  24. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party51%Tue 3 Nov
  25. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  26. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  27. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No93%Thu 31 Dec
  28. 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis): Carlos Alcaraz47%Sun 13 Sept
  29. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  30. Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%Sun 13 Sept
  31. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  32. SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes95%Sun 6 Sept
  33. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  34. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula59%Fri 2 Oct
  35. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  36. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  37. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  38. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No74%Fri 1 Jan
  39. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No89%Sun 1 Nov
  40. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes66%Wed 16 Sept
  41. Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Karen Bass65%Thu 31 Dec
  42. Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026: No76%Sun 6 Sept
  43. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  44. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  45. US recession by end of 2026?: No93%Sun 31 Jan
  46. Fed Decision in October?: No change67%Wed 28 Oct
  47. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  48. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  49. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  50. US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien: Learner Tien100%Sat 12 Sept
  51. Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026: No77%Sat 31 Oct
  52. Will bitcoin rise to 85k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?: Yes98%Thu 1 Oct
  53. US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  54. Fed decisions (Jun-Sep): Pause–Pause–Pause50%Wed 16 Sept
  55. Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026?: No90%Sun 1 Nov
  56. 2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis): Aryna Sabalenka26%Sun 13 Sept
  57. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Augusto Cury57%Sun 4 Oct
  58. Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?: No51%Wed 9 Dec
  59. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  60. Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos)79%Sun 4 Oct
  61. Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  62. Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?: No99%Sun 20 Sept
  63. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No92%Sat 31 Oct
  64. China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 4.0–5.0%88%Sun 31 Jan
  65. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic61%Fri 1 Jan
  66. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No86%Thu 31 Dec
  67. Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election?: Yes89%Sat 12 Sept
  68. Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?: No100%Thu 8 Oct
  69. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?: No97%Thu 31 Dec
  70. GDP growth in 2026: 2.0–2.5%54%Fri 29 Jan
  71. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner: AfD81%Sun 20 Sept
  72. Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?: Yes79%Thu 1 Oct
  73. Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?: Yes77%Thu 1 Oct
  74. Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?: Yes62%Wed 9 Dec
  75. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No89%Sun 1 Nov
  76. Bank of Japan Decision in September?: 25 bps increase98%Fri 18 Sept
  77. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?: Yes90%Fri 1 Jan
  78. Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?: Yes64%Sun 20 Sept
  79. Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in September?: No85%Thu 1 Oct
  80. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%43%Sun 4 Oct
  81. Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?: No93%Tue 10 Nov
  82. The Greens receive at least 5% and enter the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag: Yes73%Sun 20 Sept
  83. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo91%Sun 4 Oct
  84. Trump out as President by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  85. Fed Decision in December?: No change45%Wed 9 Dec
  86. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes98%Sun 4 Oct
  87. 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?: No52%Wed 16 Sept
  88. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No95%Sun 4 Oct
  89. Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?: No99%Wed 16 Sept
  90. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?: 5-7%66%Sun 6 Sept
  91. São Paulo Governor Election Winner: Tarcísio de Freitas98%Sun 4 Oct
  92. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No94%Fri 8 Jan
  93. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  94. Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?: 27-30%54%Sun 13 Sept
  95. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes91%Mon 5 Oct
  96. Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at its next meeting?: No98%Wed 23 Sept
  97. Ceará Governor Election Winner: Ciro Gomes64%Sun 4 Oct
  98. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: SPD Vote Share?: 7-9%54%Sun 6 Sept
  99. Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?: No60%Mon 21 Sept
  100. Will the AfD win more than 40% of the vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes79%Mon 7 Sept
  101. Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes97%Sun 4 Oct
  102. Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?: Sven Schulze74%Sun 6 Sept
  103. Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?: No57%Sun 13 Sept
  104. Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco50%Sun 4 Oct
  105. Bahia Governor Election Winner: Jerônimo Rodrigues52%Sun 4 Oct
  106. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Sweden Democrats (SD)81%Sun 13 Sept
  107. Osnabrück Mayoral Election Winner: Katharina Pötter80%Sun 13 Sept
  108. Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026?: No77%Thu 1 Oct
  109. Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner: Elaine Pelino92%Tue 8 Sept
  110. Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October: No75%Wed 30 Sept
  111. Providence, RI Democratic Mayoral Nominee: David Morales86%Wed 9 Sept
  112. Will Dan McKee be renominated for Governor of Rhode Island in 2026?: No95%Tue 8 Sept
  113. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Moderate Party (M)79%Sun 13 Sept
  114. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Vote Share?: 20-23%43%Sun 6 Sept
  115. Rhode Island Attorney General Democratic Primary Winner: Kim Ahern99%Wed 9 Sept
  116. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Linke Vote Share?: 9-12%57%Sun 6 Sept
  117. "By Any Means" Opening Weekend Box Office: 7-8m91%Sun 6 Sept
  118. Sweden Parliamentary Election: Örebropartiet Win Seats?: No79%Sun 13 Sept
  119. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?: 42-45%39%Sun 6 Sept
  120. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 42%?: Under52%Sun 6 Sept
  121. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 6th Place: Centre Party (C)37%Sun 13 Sept
  122. "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 6th Weekend Box Office: 15m+99%Sun 6 Sept
  123. 🎾 Will an American man reach the 2026 US Open men's singles final?: No72%Fri 11 Sept
  124. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 4th Place: Centre Party (C)38%Sun 13 Sept
  125. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Over/Under 5%?: Over80%Sun 6 Sept
  126. "Onslaught" Opening Weekend Box Office: <2m91%Sun 6 Sept
  127. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 5th Place: Left Party (V)30%Sun 13 Sept
  128. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: BSW Vote Share?: 3-5%68%Sun 6 Sept
  129. Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SD or M?: SD67%Sun 13 Sept
  130. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Linke Over/Under 12%?: Under65%Sun 6 Sept
  131. What will be the #2 global Netflix show this week?: Beauty in Black: Season 393%Tue 8 Sept
  132. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?: Under56%Sun 6 Sept
  133. What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?: Beauty in Black: Season 393%Tue 8 Sept
  134. Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election?: did not happen85%Sun 6 Sept
  135. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?: SPD81%Sun 6 Sept
  136. What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?: Untold Raygun: Breaking Badly72%Tue 8 Sept
  137. Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 30 million views this week?: Yes96%Tue 8 Sept
  138. "The Odyssey" 8th Weekend Box Office: 11m+99%Sun 6 Sept
  139. What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?: The Secret Woman99%Tue 8 Sept
  140. Will "Onslaught" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: No96%Mon 7 Sept
  141. What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?: The Whisper Man98%Tue 8 Sept
  142. What will be the top US Netflix show this week?: Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 199%Tue 8 Sept
  143. What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?: The Whisper Man98%Tue 8 Sept
  144. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No89%Wed 4 Nov
  145. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No92%Wed 4 Nov
  146. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)68%Wed 30 Sept
  147. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  148. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No82%Sun 1 Nov
  149. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane59%Sat 31 Oct
  150. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)89%Thu 31 Dec
  151. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: No50%Wed 4 Nov
  152. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No96%Wed 18 Nov
  153. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: No51%Tue 1 Dec
  154. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes62%Tue 3 Nov
  155. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No64%Tue 3 Nov
  156. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No50%Tue 1 Dec
  157. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Yulia Navalnaya20%Sat 10 Oct
  158. Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Magdalena Andersson76%Sun 13 Sept
  159. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No89%Sun 15 Nov
  160. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  161. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro81%Thu 31 Dec
  162. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  163. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli67%Sun 6 Dec
  164. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3092%Thu 1 Oct
  165. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  166. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No51%Wed 4 Nov
  167. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)96%Wed 30 Sept
  168. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes92%Fri 2 Oct
  169. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  170. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes72%Wed 4 Nov
  171. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  172. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  173. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes67%Tue 3 Nov
  174. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day91%Thu 31 Dec
  175. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  176. Will GPT-6 be released before the end of October 2026?: Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  177. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No80%Tue 3 Nov
  178. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  179. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  180. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  181. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  182. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  183. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  184. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes63%Tue 3 Nov
  185. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes87%Sun 6 Dec
  186. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  187. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  188. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  189. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 494%Fri 1 Jan
  190. Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: FC Barcelona75%Sun 6 Sept
  191. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: No51%Tue 3 Nov
  192. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  193. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No86%Tue 3 Nov
  194. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  195. OpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  196. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  197. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  198. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No66%Mon 30 Nov
  199. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers30%Sat 31 Oct
  200. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  201. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  202. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No96%Sun 27 Sept
  203. AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?: No82%Wed 30 Sept
  204. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  205. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  206. Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time?: Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  207. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  208. Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?: Yes89%Thu 1 Oct
  209. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic59%Thu 31 Dec
  210. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  211. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic79%Thu 1 Oct
  212. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No74%Thu 31 Dec
  213. Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: Arsenal FC72%Sun 6 Sept
  214. Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC: Manchester United FC63%Sun 6 Sept
  215. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Inter Miami CF19%Sat 19 Dec
  216. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  217. Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  218. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes54%Mon 23 Nov
  219. Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?: No87%Wed 30 Sept
  220. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes83%Wed 14 Oct
  221. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  222. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  223. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  224. Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?: No meeting before 202793%Fri 1 Jan
  225. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  226. Will a non-MF group be proved this month?: Yes96%Wed 28 Oct
  227. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes65%Mon 30 Nov
  228. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes85%Wed 30 Sept
  229. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  230. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes97%Wed 30 Sept
  231. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  232. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes86%Wed 14 Oct
  233. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No65%Tue 13 Oct
  234. 🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️‍⚧️✨: No71%Mon 2 Nov
  235. Will Seth Bodnar win Montanas Senate Election?: No91%Tue 3 Nov
  236. Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?: No69%Fri 6 Nov
  237. "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" breaks the record for the biggest domestic lifetime gross of all time?: Yes98%Sun 4 Oct
  238. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  239. Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece: No67%Sat 3 Oct
  240. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  241. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  242. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  243. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No56%Tue 6 Oct
  244. Israel closes its airspace by September 30?: Yes67%Thu 1 Oct
  245. Elon Musk significantly backs a third party in Midterms?: No97%Thu 5 Nov
  246. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  247. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No74%Fri 1 Jan
  248. Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?: No55%Wed 4 Nov
  249. AZ-03 House Election Winner: Democratic Party87%Tue 3 Nov
  250. Will Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.