AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Sunday, 6 September 2026
Edition of Friday, 5 March 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sun 6 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Friday, 5 March 2027.

Politics

Greens entered Saxony-Anhalt Landtag

The Greens entered Saxony-Anhalt's Landtag and the Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points.

73% certain
lead market 73%next 27%1 venuesettles Sun 20 Sept3 markets behind this

The Greens cleared the 5 percent hurdle and secured seats in the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag, the Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate by 25 basis points, and Justice Samuel Alito confirmed he would not retire. Each development was recorded in the final days of the month.

The party achieved the required threshold on 20 September, the date the Saxony-Anhalt election results were finalized. The result altered the composition of the Landtag ahead of coalition talks.

The Bank of Japan announced the rate hike on 18 September, moving the benchmark up by a quarter of a percentage point. This was the first increase in years, ending a long period of ultra-low rates. The adjustment was intended to address persistent inflation pressures.

On 1 October, Justice Samuel Alito publicly stated he would not step down before the end of September. The decision removed speculation about a vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court. It left the Court's current composition unchanged heading into the next term.

Analysis

The three September outcomes shifted calculations across different arenas: a new Green foothold in German regional politics, Japan's first rate rise in years, and the U.S. Supreme Court's unchanged membership. Together they illustrate how domestic decisions can reverberate beyond national borders.

In Saxony-Anhalt, the Greens' entry forces established parties to accommodate an environmental bloc in any governing coalition. Their presence may push policy discussions toward climate and renewable initiatives, while also giving the Greens a platform to influence budgetary and legislative priorities at the state level.

Meanwhile, Alito's decision to remain on the bench preserves the current ideological balance of the Supreme Court, delaying any immediate shift in its jurisprudence and keeping pending cases on their existing trajectory.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

The Greens receive at least 5% and enter the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag: Yes, 73% settles Sunday, 20 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
Bank of Japan Decision in September?: 25 bps increase, 98% settles Friday, 18 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?: No, 99% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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