39%Fed ended 2026 with rate at 4.0% after single Hike60%No new token met its launch valuation target on day one59%Russia-Ukraine conflict showed no change in 202665%Trump won, but US avoided new wars and NATO stay78%Mojtaba Khamenei remained Iran's leader at end of 202694%China did not invade or blockade Taiwan in 202656%Spider-Man: Brand New Day was 2026's top-grossing film48%Netanyahu remained Israel's Prime Minister through 202651%Democrats won house and senate majorities in 2026 Midterms66%Parti Québécois won Quebec election, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon became Premier53%Lula won Brazil's 2026 Presidential runoff89%OpenAI released ChatGPT Astra and lost GPT trademark

AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Saturday, 5 September 2026
Edition of Thursday, 4 March 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sat 5 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Thursday, 4 March 2027.

Economics

Fed ended 2026 with rate at 4.0% after single Hike

The central bank delivered one 25-basis-point increase, kept rates unchanged after September and finished the year at 4.0%.

39% certain
lead market 39%next 22%1 venuesettles Wed 9 Dec

The Federal Reserve concluded 2026 with its policy rate set at 4.0 percent. Throughout the year the board refrained from cutting rates, with no cut implemented by the September meeting. It also ruled out lowering the lower bound to 3.0 percent or below before 2027. Only one adjustment was made, a 25-basis-point increase, leaving the rate unchanged for the remainder of the year.

The sole increase occurred earlier in the calendar year, raising the target by a quarter of a percentage point. Subsequent policy meetings in October and December each resulted in no change to the rate. The October decision confirmed the board's decision to hold steady, and the December meeting reiterated the same stance.

Read the full report

Economics

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in August

Headline CPI increased 0.4% month over month while Core inflation stayed at 2.4% year over year.

52% certain
lead market 52%next 31%1 venuesettles Fri 11 Sept

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Brazil Presidential Election: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva53%Sun 4 Oct
  2. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No89%Wed 4 Nov
  3. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No93%Wed 4 Nov
  4. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)67%Wed 30 Sept
  5. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  6. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  7. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei78%Thu 31 Dec
  8. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: Yes55%Sat 3 Oct
  9. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot48%Thu 31 Dec
  10. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party88%Tue 3 Nov
  11. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes89%Sun 15 Nov
  12. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro85%Sun 4 Oct
  13. Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Magdalena Andersson78%Sun 13 Sept
  14. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No89%Sun 15 Nov
  15. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  16. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep51%Tue 3 Nov
  17. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  18. Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes72%Wed 9 Dec
  19. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  20. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  21. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day91%Thu 31 Dec
  22. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  23. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.0%39%Wed 9 Dec
  24. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party51%Tue 3 Nov
  25. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  26. OpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  27. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  28. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  29. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)98%Wed 30 Sept
  30. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  31. Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time?: Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  32. Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%Sun 13 Sept
  33. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  34. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  35. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula60%Fri 2 Oct
  36. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  37. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  38. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  39. SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes94%Sun 6 Sept
  40. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes65%Mon 30 Nov
  41. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No66%Fri 1 Jan
  42. Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026: No85%Sun 6 Sept
  43. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  44. Will Chat GPT Astra or GPT6 have safeguard triggers like Anthropic models?: Yes91%Sat 26 Sept
  45. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No80%Fri 1 Jan
  46. Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?: No53%Wed 4 Nov
  47. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  48. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No77%Sun 1 Nov
  49. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No76%Fri 1 Jan
  50. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  51. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  52. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  53. Fed Decision in October?: No change67%Wed 28 Oct
  54. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner: AfD100%Sun 6 Sept
  55. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  56. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  57. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  58. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No74%Fri 1 Jan
  59. Will bitcoin rise to 85k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?: Yes98%Thu 1 Oct
  60. Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  61. US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  62. Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?: No75%Fri 1 Jan
  63. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  64. Liberals still in Riksdag after next election?: No78%Sat 12 Sept
  65. Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026?: No90%Sun 1 Nov
  66. Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?: No63%Mon 21 Sept
  67. Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?: No51%Wed 9 Dec
  68. Quebec General Election Winner: PQ71%Mon 5 Oct
  69. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  70. Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  71. Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  72. Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  73. Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  74. Will Chris Pappas win the 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Primary for Senate?: Yes96%Tue 8 Sept
  75. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  76. Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?: No99%Sun 20 Sept
  77. Fed decisions (Jul–Oct): Other64%Wed 28 Oct
  78. Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election?: Yes89%Sat 12 Sept
  79. Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)87%Sun 20 Sept
  80. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  81. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No83%Thu 1 Oct
  82. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  83. Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?: No100%Thu 8 Oct
  84. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No84%Thu 31 Dec
  85. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  86. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No59%Fri 1 Jan
  87. ECB Interest Rates: September 2026: 25 bps increase99%Thu 10 Sept
  88. US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?: No95%Thu 31 Dec
  89. Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo: No92%Thu 31 Dec
  90. Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?: No75%Thu 1 Oct
  91. Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?: Yes79%Thu 1 Oct
  92. Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  93. United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–33937%Sun 20 Sept
  94. Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?: Yes64%Sun 20 Sept
  95. Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?: No85%Sat 3 Oct
  96. Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?: Yes60%Fri 1 Jan
  97. Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September?: No85%Thu 1 Oct
  98. Fed Decision in December?: No change46%Wed 9 Dec
  99. Next Premier of Quebec: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon66%Mon 5 Oct
  100. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes98%Sun 4 Oct
  101. Will August 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes92%Fri 11 Sept
  102. StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  103. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No95%Sun 4 Oct
  104. Bank of Russia decision in September?: No Change64%Fri 11 Sept
  105. New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Chris Pappas97%Tue 8 Sept
  106. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No94%Fri 8 Jan
  107. Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday56%Fri 1 Jan
  108. StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  109. Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?: 27-30%53%Sun 13 Sept
  110. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?: No90%Thu 31 Dec
  111. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  112. Will the US announce materially tougher Iran sanctions within 14‑days of Scott Bessent’s “Economic D‑Day” FT op‑ed?: No75%Sat 5 Sept
  113. NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner: Maura Sullivan89%Tue 8 Sept
  114. Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?: No60%Mon 21 Sept
  115. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?: 5-7%65%Sun 6 Sept
  116. Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  117. Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes97%Sun 4 Oct
  118. Will the AfD win more than 40% of the vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes76%Mon 7 Sept
  119. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: SPD Vote Share?: 7-9%56%Sun 6 Sept
  120. Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?: Sven Schulze73%Sun 6 Sept
  121. Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October: No78%Wed 30 Sept
  122. Will Dan McKee be renominated for Governor of Rhode Island in 2026?: No95%Tue 8 Sept
  123. Rhode Island Attorney General Democratic Primary Winner: Kim Ahern74%Wed 9 Sept
  124. August Inflation US - Annual: 3.4%43%Fri 11 Sept
  125. Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?: David Morales85%Wed 9 Sept
  126. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Linke Vote Share?: 9-12%50%Sun 6 Sept
  127. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Vote Share?: 20-23%42%Sun 6 Sept
  128. Will OpenAI classify any model as "Critical" capability under its Preparedness Framework before Oct 1, 2026?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  129. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?: 39-42%40%Sun 6 Sept
  130. Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of September?: OpenAI97%Thu 1 Oct
  131. Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner: did not happen94%Tue 8 Sept
  132. European Central Bank interest rate decision in September: Rise by 0.25% or more96%Wed 9 Sept
  133. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Over/Under 5%?: Over80%Sun 6 Sept
  134. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 42%?: Over53%Sun 6 Sept
  135. "By Any Means" Opening Weekend Box Office: 7-8m56%Sun 6 Sept
  136. New Hampshire Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Cinde Warmington99%Tue 8 Sept
  137. August Inflation China - Annual: 0.7% - 0.8%40%Wed 9 Sept
  138. Will August 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: No53%Fri 11 Sept
  139. August Inflation US - Monthly: 0.4%52%Fri 11 Sept
  140. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to Grüne or BSW?: Grüne95%Sun 6 Sept
  141. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: BSW Vote Share?: 3-5%79%Sun 6 Sept
  142. Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election?: did not happen85%Sun 6 Sept
  143. Core CPI YoY - August 2026: 2.4%67%Fri 11 Sept
  144. "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 6th Weekend Box Office: 15m+97%Sun 6 Sept
  145. "Onslaught" Opening Weekend Box Office: 2-3m69%Sun 6 Sept
  146. Core CPI MoM - August 2026: 0.2%55%Fri 11 Sept
  147. Will Russia target Kyiv on September 5, 2026?: Yes67%Sat 5 Sept
  148. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%?: Under89%Sun 6 Sept
  149. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?: SPD80%Sun 6 Sept
  150. Will "Onslaught" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: No95%Mon 7 Sept
  151. "The Odyssey" 8th Weekend Box Office: 11m+97%Sun 6 Sept
  152. New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary: Margin of Victory: Pappas 20–25%16%Tue 8 Sept
  153. Rhode Island Lieutenant Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Sabina Matos90%Wed 9 Sept
  154. Will Elon post "Iran" or "Iranian" on X this week?: No92%Sun 6 Sept
  155. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra93%Tue 3 Nov
  156. Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?: No99%Fri 6 Nov
  157. Fed Decision in September?: 25 bps increase50%Wed 16 Sept
  158. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane60%Sat 31 Oct
  159. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)89%Thu 31 Dec
  160. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes50%Wed 4 Nov
  161. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No96%Wed 18 Nov
  162. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: No52%Tue 1 Dec
  163. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes62%Tue 3 Nov
  164. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No65%Tue 3 Nov
  165. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  166. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No51%Tue 1 Dec
  167. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Yulia Navalnaya21%Sat 10 Oct
  168. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  169. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  170. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro80%Thu 31 Dec
  171. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  172. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli68%Sun 6 Dec
  173. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3090%Thu 1 Oct
  174. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  175. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No51%Wed 4 Nov
  176. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes92%Fri 2 Oct
  177. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  178. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes72%Wed 4 Nov
  179. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  180. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  181. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes67%Tue 3 Nov
  182. Manchester City FC vs. Coventry City FC: Manchester City FC79%Sat 5 Sept
  183. Will GPT-6 be released before the end of October 2026?: Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  184. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No80%Tue 3 Nov
  185. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes94%Wed 30 Sept
  186. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  187. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  188. Berlin State Election Winner: CDU42%Sun 20 Sept
  189. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  190. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  191. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  192. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No72%Tue 3 Nov
  193. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes63%Tue 3 Nov
  194. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes87%Sun 6 Dec
  195. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  196. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  197. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  198. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: No51%Tue 3 Nov
  199. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  200. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No87%Tue 3 Nov
  201. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  202. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No66%Mon 30 Nov
  203. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  204. Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Newcastle United FC65%Sat 5 Sept
  205. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers29%Sat 31 Oct
  206. Will Bitcoin be higher a month from now?: Yes88%Sat 5 Sept
  207. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  208. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  209. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Thu 31 Dec
  210. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No96%Sun 27 Sept
  211. 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis): Carlos Alcaraz43%Sun 13 Sept
  212. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  213. Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Leeds United FC: Brighton & Hove Albion FC66%Sat 5 Sept
  214. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  215. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  216. Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?: Yes89%Thu 1 Oct
  217. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  218. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No74%Thu 31 Dec
  219. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Inter Miami CF21%Sat 19 Dec
  220. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  221. VA-06 House Election Winner: Republican Party89%Tue 3 Nov
  222. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes54%Mon 23 Nov
  223. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  224. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  225. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 5?: Yes94%Sat 5 Sept
  226. Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?: No85%Wed 30 Sept
  227. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes83%Wed 14 Oct
  228. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic82%Thu 1 Oct
  229. Nottingham Forest FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Nottingham Forest FC65%Sat 5 Sept
  230. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 493%Fri 1 Jan
  231. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  232. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  233. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  234. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  235. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  236. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  237. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes67%Wed 16 Sept
  238. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes98%Wed 30 Sept
  239. In a true free market. Prices would naturally fall . In other words deflation: Yes55%Sat 5 Sept
  240. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA78%Thu 31 Dec
  241. Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Karen Bass65%Thu 31 Dec
  242. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202692%Fri 1 Jan
  243. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes86%Wed 14 Oct
  244. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic56%Thu 31 Dec
  245. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No65%Tue 13 Oct
  246. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes87%Wed 30 Sept
  247. 🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️‍⚧️✨: No71%Mon 2 Nov
  248. Will Seth Bodnar win Montanas Senate Election?: No91%Tue 3 Nov
  249. Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?: No71%Fri 6 Nov
  250. Did Claude just solve navier stokes??: No70%Mon 5 Oct
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.