AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Sunday, 13 September 2026
Edition of Friday, 12 March 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sun 13 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Friday, 12 March 2027.

Economics

Fed raised rates 25 basis points in September

No cuts were made in 2026 and the bank kept rates steady otherwise.

69% certain
lead market 69%next 31%1 venuesettles Wed 16 Sept6 markets behind this

The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points at its September meeting. All other meetings in 2026 left the rate unchanged. No rate cuts were recorded during the year.

The September increase was decided on 16 September, when the Fed announced a 25-basis-point hike. The decision followed a series of meetings in the June-August window that did not alter the rate.

During the June to August meetings the Fed's actions differed from a simple pause pattern. The June and July meetings maintained the existing rate, and the August meeting also left the rate unchanged. The sequence was therefore classified as 'Other' rather than a uniform pause-pause-pause. The September hike broke that pattern.

A later assessment on 31 December confirmed that the Fed implemented zero cuts in 2026. The tally of cuts stood at zero basis points for the year.

Its track record covered the June-August pauses, the September hike, and the absence of cuts.

Analysis

The September 25-basis-point increase signaled that the Fed was willing to tighten monetary policy despite keeping rates steady in earlier meetings. By acting in September, the central bank aimed to address price pressures while still allowing time to assess economic data.

The absence of any rate cuts throughout the year reinforced a stance of policy stability. Holding rates unchanged after the September hike meant borrowing costs for businesses and consumers remained predictable, supporting planning and investment decisions.

Uncertainty remains regarding future inflation trends and growth prospects, which could prompt additional tightening or a shift in policy direction. While the Fed avoided cuts in 2026, the possibility of another hike later in the year cannot be ruled out without new data.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Fed Decision in September?: 25 bps increase, 78% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes, 69% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep): Other, 80% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?: No, 100% settles Thursday, 8 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps), 91% settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes, 87% settles Wednesday, 9 December 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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