# Fed raised rates 25 basis points in September

*Economics. 69% certain. Thursday, 31 December 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**No cuts were made in 2026 and the bank kept rates steady otherwise.**

The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points at its September meeting. All other meetings in 2026 left the rate unchanged. No rate cuts were recorded during the year.

The September increase was decided on 16 September, when the Fed announced a 25-basis-point hike. The decision followed a series of meetings in the June-August window that did not alter the rate.

During the June to August meetings the Fed's actions differed from a simple pause pattern. The June and July meetings maintained the existing rate, and the August meeting also left the rate unchanged. The sequence was therefore classified as 'Other' rather than a uniform pause-pause-pause. The September hike broke that pattern.

A later assessment on 31 December confirmed that the Fed implemented zero cuts in 2026. The tally of cuts stood at zero basis points for the year.

Its track record covered the June-August pauses, the September hike, and the absence of cuts.

## Analysis

The September 25-basis-point increase signaled that the Fed was willing to tighten monetary policy despite keeping rates steady in earlier meetings. By acting in September, the central bank aimed to address price pressures while still allowing time to assess economic data.

The absence of any rate cuts throughout the year reinforced a stance of policy stability. Holding rates unchanged after the September hike meant borrowing costs for businesses and consumers remained predictable, supporting planning and investment decisions.

Uncertainty remains regarding future inflation trends and growth prospects, which could prompt additional tightening or a shift in policy direction. While the Fed avoided cuts in 2026, the possibility of another hike later in the year cannot be ruled out without new data.

## What this was built from

- **Fed Decision in September?**: 25 bps increase, 78%; settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762)
- **Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?**: Yes, 69%; settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/will-polymarket-be-right-about-ever)
- **Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)**: Other, 80%; settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-jun-sep)
- **Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?**: No, 100%; settles Thursday, 8 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-cut-by-629)
- **How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?**: 0 (0 bps), 91%; settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026)
- **Fed rate hike in 2026?**: Yes, 87%; settles Wednesday, 9 December 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-hike-in-2026)