AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Wednesday, 21 October 2026
Edition of Monday, 19 April 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Wed 21 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Monday, 19 April 2027.

Politics

Marine Le Pen won French presidency as right-wing parties surged

Spain's People's party claimed parliament and an AfD-backed coalition installed a new state premier in Germany.

40% certain
lead market 40%next 16%1 venuesettles Mon 19 Apr

Marine Le Pen was elected president of France in the 2026 election. The incumbent president Emmanuel Macron continued in office, as his term did not end before 2027. Candidate David Lisnard failed to qualify for the second round of the ballot. The outcome was confirmed on Monday.

The People's party won the Spanish general election. The party secured a majority of seats in the Congress of Deputies. The victory gave the PP the ability to form a government.

Read the full report

World

U.S. did not invade or strike Cuba in 2026

The United States refrained from military action against Cuba, and the Cuban government remained in power throughout 2026.

91% certain
lead market 91%next 10%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Texas Senate Election Winner: James Talarico (D)63%Wed 4 Nov
  3. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party92%Wed 4 Nov
  4. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep63%Wed 4 Nov
  5. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)96%Fri 1 Jan
  6. Maine Senate Election Winner: Troy Jackson (D)63%Wed 4 Nov
  7. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei84%Thu 31 Dec
  8. Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen40%Mon 19 Apr
  9. Michigan Senate Election Winner: Abdul El-Sayed (D)69%Wed 4 Nov
  10. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  11. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party65%Wed 4 Nov
  12. Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?: No97%Thu 31 Dec
  13. Ohio Senate Election Winner: Sherrod Brown (D)62%Wed 4 Nov
  14. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day86%Fri 8 Jan
  15. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  16. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  17. Another Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes81%Thu 10 Dec
  18. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory: Flávio Bolsonaro <4%37%Mon 26 Oct
  19. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  20. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  21. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase77%Wed 9 Dec
  22. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  23. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  24. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  25. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  26. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Yashar72%Wed 28 Oct
  27. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  28. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  29. Georgia Senate Election Winner: Jon Ossoff (D) 95%Wed 4 Nov
  30. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  31. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro73%Sun 25 Oct
  32. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  33. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  34. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No88%Thu 31 Dec
  35. US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?: No64%Fri 1 Jan
  36. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes63%Wed 4 Nov
  37. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 20-2442%Wed 28 Oct
  38. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  39. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  40. US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  41. Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?: No69%Thu 31 Dec
  42. Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  43. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  44. How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 2 (50 bps)70%Thu 31 Dec
  45. Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?: 220-23935%Fri 23 Oct
  46. Cuban regime falls in 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  47. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  48. Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  49. US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  50. [ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?: No90%Thu 31 Dec
  51. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?: No98%Thu 31 Dec
  52. Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  53. Spain General Election Winner: PP83%Mon 30 Nov
  54. Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  55. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  56. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes93%Sun 15 Nov
  57. Fed Decision in January?: No change60%Thu 28 Jan
  58. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá: Flavio Bolsonaro72%Mon 26 Oct
  59. Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  60. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  61. Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday56%Mon 1 Feb
  62. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No97%Fri 29 Jan
  63. Largest Company end of October 2026?: NVIDIA90%Sun 1 Nov
  64. Fed decisions (Sep–Dec): Hike–Pause–Hike69%Wed 9 Dec
  65. How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?: 22–2334%Wed 4 Nov
  66. Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?: Yes77%Sat 31 Oct
  67. Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?: No97%Sat 2 Jan
  68. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?: No93%Tue 5 Jan
  69. Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  70. Top Spotify Artist 2026: Taylor Swift78%Mon 1 Feb
  71. Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  72. Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  73. Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  74. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?: Yes85%Thu 31 Dec
  75. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No98%Mon 2 Nov
  76. Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  77. Will any German State Prime Minister after a 2026 election be elected with AfD support?: Yes74%Thu 31 Dec
  78. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas: Lula59%Mon 26 Oct
  79. Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?: No100%Sun 1 Nov
  80. Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  81. Billboard #1 Artist 2026: Morgan Wallen88%Thu 1 Apr
  82. Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?: No86%Mon 19 Apr
  83. Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  84. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?: Anthropic90%Sun 1 Nov
  85. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará: Lula77%Mon 26 Oct
  86. #1 Searched Movie on Google 2026?: The Odyssey61%Thu 31 Dec
  87. Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday65%Mon 1 Feb
  88. Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?: No98%Wed 4 Nov
  89. Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?: Yes100%Sat 31 Oct
  90. California Voter ID ballot proposition passes?: No82%Tue 3 Nov
  91. Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil?: Flávio Bolsonaro96%Mon 26 Oct
  92. Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?: Anthropic89%Sun 1 Nov
  93. Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.41% in October?: No85%Sun 1 Nov
  94. Second-best AI Lab end of October?: Anthropic72%Sat 31 Oct
  95. Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?: 25 bps increase72%Wed 28 Oct
  96. Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in October?: No72%Sun 1 Nov
  97. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Turnout: 78-80%58%Mon 26 Oct
  98. Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026: No88%Sat 31 Oct
  99. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Minas Gerais: Flavio Bolsonaro92%Mon 26 Oct
  100. Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  101. No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?: No change97%Tue 27 Oct
  102. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in October?: No73%Sun 1 Nov
  103. Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?: No85%Wed 28 Oct
  104. Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?: 200+35%Fri 23 Oct
  105. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?: Anthropic99%Sat 31 Oct
  106. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in October?: No90%Sun 1 Nov
  107. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in October?: No76%Sun 1 Nov
  108. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?: Anthropic92%Sun 1 Nov
  109. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in October?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  110. Will Anthropic announce a $400+/month tier before November 2026?: No94%Sat 31 Oct
  111. Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?: No89%Sun 1 Nov
  112. October Inflation China - Annual: 0.9% to 1.0%46%Mon 9 Nov
  113. Billboard 200 #1 Album Week of October 31: You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo95%Wed 28 Oct
  114. US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — September: 3.10%46%Thu 29 Oct
  115. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in October?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  116. Bank of Korea decision in October?: No Change99%Thu 22 Oct
  117. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of October?: Anthropic92%Sat 31 Oct
  118. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in October?: No97%Sun 1 Nov
  119. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $810 in October?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  120. October Inflation US - Monthly: 0.3%34%Wed 11 Nov
  121. Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of October 31: Housewife - Tate McRae80%Tue 27 Oct
  122. CZ # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?: 20-3967%Fri 23 Oct
  123. Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $65 Week of October 19 2026?: Yes82%Fri 23 Oct
  124. Ted Cruz # posts October 20 - October 27, 2026?: 140-15943%Tue 27 Oct
  125. Khamenei # posts October 20 - October 27, 2026?: <583%Tue 27 Oct
  126. Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 global unit case volume growth?: <3.5%51%Tue 27 Oct
  127. Procter & Gamble (PG) Q1 organic sales growth?: 2.5% to 3.5%46%Thu 22 Oct
  128. Visa (V) Q4 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars)?: 13.5% to 14.5%55%Tue 27 Oct
  129. Zelenskyy # posts October 20 - October 27, 2026?: 80-9967%Tue 27 Oct
  130. Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth?: 6.5% to 8%27%Tue 27 Oct
  131. Fed Decision in October?: No change86%Thu 29 Oct
  132. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot52%Wed 28 Oct
  133. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane67%Sat 31 Oct
  134. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  135. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  136. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  137. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  138. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  139. VA-05 House Election Winner: John McGuire (R)88%Wed 4 Nov
  140. US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes88%Sat 31 Oct
  141. Next Prime Minister of Serbia?: Aleksandar Vučić70%Sun 25 Oct
  142. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  143. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  144. US recession by end of 2026?: No94%Sun 31 Jan
  145. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  146. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes93%Sat 31 Oct
  147. Iowa Senate Election Winner: Ashley Hinson (R)59%Wed 4 Nov
  148. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No78%Wed 4 Nov
  149. Wisconsin Governor Election Winner: David Crowley (D)81%Wed 4 Nov
  150. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  151. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro77%Thu 31 Dec
  152. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli97%Sun 6 Dec
  153. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  154. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  155. Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?: No Hormuz Agreement94%Wed 4 Nov
  156. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  157. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  158. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  159. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  160. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  161. OpenAI IPO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  162. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: ≥ 4.5%81%Fri 1 Jan
  163. New Hampshire Senate Election Winner: Chris Pappas (D)89%Wed 4 Nov
  164. US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?: No91%Sun 1 Nov
  165. Nevada Governor Election Winner: Aaron Ford (D)55%Wed 4 Nov
  166. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  167. TX-28 House Election Margin of Victory: Democrat 6-9%55%Wed 4 Nov
  168. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No84%Tue 5 Jan
  169. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: SpaceX73%Thu 31 Dec
  170. Michigan Governor Election Winner: Jocelyn Benson (D)90%Wed 4 Nov
  171. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  172. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  173. Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner: Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia70%Sun 25 Oct
  174. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Google82%Sat 31 Oct
  175. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No98%Wed 18 Nov
  176. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  177. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No74%Fri 1 Jan
  178. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  179. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 481%Fri 1 Jan
  180. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  181. Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?: No Hormuz Agreement88%Wed 4 Nov
  182. Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  183. Alaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola74%Wed 4 Nov
  184. Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?: No100%Sun 1 Nov
  185. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  186. Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?: No89%Sun 1 Nov
  187. Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?: Oil ≥ $85; D Senate61%Wed 4 Nov
  188. Iowa Governor Election Winner: Rob Sand (D)84%Wed 4 Nov
  189. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  190. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  191. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  192. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No96%Mon 30 Nov
  193. Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?: No100%Sun 1 Nov
  194. All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  195. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  196. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  197. Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October?: No91%Sun 1 Nov
  198. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: San Francisco 49ers15%Thu 1 Apr
  199. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No93%Mon 4 Jan
  200. FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC: FC Bayern München77%Wed 21 Oct
  201. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  202. Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?: China77%Fri 1 Jan
  203. North Carolina Senate Election Winner: Roy Cooper (D)94%Wed 4 Nov
  204. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sat 31 Oct
  205. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  206. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA76%Fri 1 Jan
  207. Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Chiang Wan-an62%Sun 29 Nov
  208. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: Yes60%Fri 1 Jan
  209. Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova88%Mon 26 Oct
  210. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  211. Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  212. Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?: No86%Sun 1 Nov
  213. Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  214. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  215. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic48%Thu 31 Dec
  216. Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?: No97%Thu 31 Dec
  217. South Carolina Senate Election Winner: Darline Graham Nordone (R)82%Wed 4 Nov
  218. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Nashville SC22%Fri 1 Jan
  219. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  220. Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  221. Arizona Governor Election Winner: Katie Hobbs (D)91%Wed 4 Nov
  222. Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  223. Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?: No meeting before 202790%Fri 1 Jan
  224. Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  225. US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?: Yes81%Wed 4 Nov
  226. Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?: Yes77%Fri 1 Jan
  227. Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  228. Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  229. US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?: No58%Mon 30 Nov
  230. Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 181%Thu 31 Dec
  231. Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  232. Kansas Senate Election Winner: Roger Marshall (R)62%Wed 4 Nov
  233. Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?: Yes76%Fri 1 Jan
  234. # of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer on week 1?: 60-80M89%Fri 23 Oct
  235. Iran leadership change by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  236. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?: No86%Sun 1 Nov
  237. Will GameStop acquire eBay?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  238. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 21?: Yes93%Wed 21 Oct
  239. Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  240. Bachelorette Season 22 Winner: Other (Season Cancelled)88%Mon 30 Nov
  241. Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  242. Georgia Governor Election Winner: Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)53%Wed 4 Nov
  243. Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  244. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Milwaukee Brewers63%Sat 31 Oct
  245. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No64%Tue 1 Dec
  246. US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  247. Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  248. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  249. S&P 500 up 100% in 2026?: No99%Thu 31 Dec
  250. Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.