AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Thursday, 15 October 2026
Edition of Tuesday, 13 April 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Thu 15 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Tuesday, 13 April 2027.

Politics

Democrats captured both chambers in 2026 midterms

Democrats won the house and senate in the 2026 midterms, and a brief government Shutdown followed.

62% certain
lead market 62%next 38%1 venuesettles Tue 1 Dec

On Sunday, November 15, the election results confirmed that Democrats secured a majority in the house of Representatives. The same cycle saw Democrats gain control of the senate, ending Republican hopes for a split Congress. The combined victories triggered a brief government Shutdown that began on Monday, February 1.

Democratic candidates outperformed their rivals in enough districts to claim a clear majority in the 435-seat chamber.

Read the full report

World

U.S. did not invade Cuba in 2026

No U.S. strike occurred and the Cuban regime remained in power.

89% certain
lead market 89%next 12%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

World

Ukraine remained outside NATO in 2027

Ukraine stayed outside NATO and failed to regain Crimea while refusing territorial concessions to Russia.

95% certain
lead market 95%next 6%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

World

US-Iran ceasefire held through October 31

The ceasefire lasted through October 31 and no nuclear deal, Hormuz agreement or senior talks were reached.

76% certain
lead market 76%next 25%1 venuesettles Wed 4 Nov

World

Iran did not impose Hormuz fees

An Oman agreement on Hormuz and a Saudi-Houthi cease-fire also failed to materialise.

85% certain
lead market 85%next 15%1 venuesettles Sun 1 Nov

Politics|World

Gadi Eizenkot became Israel's Prime Minister

Ceasefires with Iran, Yemen and the U.S. persisted while Russia hit Kyiv and Israel attacked Lebanon.

49% certain
lead market 49%next 29%1 venuesettles Wed 28 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot49%Wed 28 Oct
  3. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party91%Wed 4 Nov
  4. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  5. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  6. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep62%Wed 4 Nov
  7. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)94%Fri 1 Jan
  8. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  9. Texas Senate Election Winner: James Talarico (D)62%Wed 4 Nov
  10. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei89%Thu 31 Dec
  11. US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes89%Sat 31 Oct
  12. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  13. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party63%Wed 4 Nov
  14. Michigan Senate Election Winner: Abdul El-Sayed (D)70%Wed 4 Nov
  15. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes92%Sat 31 Oct
  16. Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  17. Ohio Senate Election Winner: Sherrod Brown (D)60%Wed 4 Nov
  18. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  19. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  20. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  21. US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  22. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  23. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  24. Wisconsin Governor Election Winner: David Crowley (D)81%Wed 4 Nov
  25. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase77%Wed 9 Dec
  26. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  27. US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?: Yes95%Thu 15 Oct
  28. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  29. Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?: No100%Sun 1 Nov
  30. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Google68%Sat 31 Oct
  31. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  32. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No79%Tue 5 Jan
  33. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  34. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  35. Another Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes82%Thu 10 Dec
  36. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  37. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  38. Alaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola74%Wed 4 Nov
  39. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  40. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No94%Mon 4 Jan
  41. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  42. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  43. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  44. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  45. New Hampshire Senate Election Winner: Chris Pappas (D)87%Wed 4 Nov
  46. Nevada Governor Election Winner: Aaron Ford (D)51%Wed 4 Nov
  47. Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  48. Michigan Governor Election Winner: Jocelyn Benson (D)91%Wed 4 Nov
  49. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  50. US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  51. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No91%Thu 31 Dec
  52. Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  53. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  54. Iran leadership change by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  55. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  56. Iowa Governor Election Winner: Rob Sand (D)86%Wed 4 Nov
  57. Alaska Governor Election Winner : Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins77%Wed 4 Nov
  58. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?: No89%Sat 31 Oct
  59. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  60. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  61. US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?: No58%Mon 30 Nov
  62. Next Prime Minister of Romania?: Luca Niculescu98%Thu 31 Dec
  63. Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?: No98%Tue 20 Oct
  64. ECB Interest Rates: October 2026: No change93%Fri 30 Oct
  65. How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 2 (50 bps)64%Thu 31 Dec
  66. US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  67. Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  68. Cuban regime falls in 2026?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  69. Will Russia invade another country in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  70. Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  71. Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  72. Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  73. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No64%Tue 1 Dec
  74. Arizona Governor Election Winner: Katie Hobbs (D)89%Wed 4 Nov
  75. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  76. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  77. Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?: No69%Thu 31 Dec
  78. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes62%Tue 1 Dec
  79. US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?: Yes76%Wed 4 Nov
  80. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No97%Fri 29 Jan
  81. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No84%Wed 6 Jan
  82. Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?: Yes87%Sat 17 Oct
  83. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?: No98%Thu 31 Dec
  84. Fed Decision in January?: No change56%Thu 28 Jan
  85. Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy): No93%Sat 31 Oct
  86. Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  87. Fed decisions (Sep–Dec): Hike–Pause–Hike63%Wed 9 Dec
  88. GPT-6.1+ Astra released in October?: No65%Sat 31 Oct
  89. Bank of Canada Decision in October?: No Change80%Wed 28 Oct
  90. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?: Yes86%Thu 31 Dec
  91. Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  92. GDP growth in 2026: 2.0–2.5%65%Fri 29 Jan
  93. Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  94. Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?: No97%Sun 1 Nov
  95. Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?: No83%Sat 31 Oct
  96. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes94%Sun 15 Nov
  97. Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?: No99%Fri 29 Jan
  98. Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  99. Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  100. Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?: Yes90%Fri 1 Jan
  101. Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  102. Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  103. Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?: No89%Sun 1 Nov
  104. US imports Russian diesel by October 31?: No88%Sun 1 Nov
  105. Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  106. Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  107. Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  108. Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?: Shutdown & Democratic Party91%Mon 1 Feb
  109. Israel military action against Lebanon on October 15?: Yes81%Fri 16 Oct
  110. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?: Anthropic91%Sun 1 Nov
  111. Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?: No100%Sun 1 Nov
  112. China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?: 4.3-4.6%76%Wed 21 Oct
  113. Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?: Anthropic91%Sun 1 Nov
  114. Will Anthropic’s IPO S-1 be public by 16 October 2026?: No92%Thu 15 Oct
  115. Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026: 0.8-1.1%60%Fri 30 Oct
  116. South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?: 3.0–3.4%42%Wed 28 Oct
  117. Fed interest rate decision — October 2026: No change59%Wed 28 Oct
  118. Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?: 2.5-3.0%32%Fri 30 Oct
  119. Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On): Google71%Sat 31 Oct
  120. OpenAI resumes training on...?: Not resumed by October 2092%Sat 17 Oct
  121. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?: Anthropic59%Sat 31 Oct
  122. Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?: No85%Sun 1 Nov
  123. Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory: Remain 40–60%53%Tue 20 Oct
  124. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?: Anthropic76%Sat 31 Oct
  125. Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM): 0.0 to 0.1%54%Fri 30 Oct
  126. UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?: 0.4–0.5%38%Fri 13 Nov
  127. Central Bank of Colombia decision in October: No change73%Fri 30 Oct
  128. Second-best AI Agent Lab end of October?: Google63%Sat 31 Oct
  129. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?: Anthropic99%Sat 31 Oct
  130. Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  131. Which company has the best Image Edit AI end of October?: OpenAI85%Sun 1 Nov
  132. OpenAI resumes training by October 31, 2026?: Yes75%Sun 1 Nov
  133. 2026 Alberta referendum asks about secession from Canada?: No55%Mon 19 Oct
  134. Central Bank of Chile decision in October: No change88%Tue 27 Oct
  135. Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin?: 32% to 34%76%Tue 20 Oct
  136. Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above $70?: Yes67%Fri 16 Oct
  137. What will be the top global Netflix show this week? (October 20): Below: Limited Series93%Wed 21 Oct
  138. Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $72.50 Week of October 12 2026?: No68%Fri 16 Oct
  139. What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (October 20): Transformers One17%Wed 21 Oct
  140. Fed Decision in October?: No change75%Thu 29 Oct
  141. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane57%Sat 31 Oct
  142. VA-05 House Election Winner: John McGuire (R)90%Wed 4 Nov
  143. Trump out as President before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  144. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  145. Maine Senate Election Winner: Troy Jackson (D)59%Wed 4 Nov
  146. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  147. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  148. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No76%Wed 4 Nov
  149. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  150. Next Prime Minister of Serbia?: Aleksandar Vučić72%Sun 25 Oct
  151. US recession by end of 2026?: No93%Sun 31 Jan
  152. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%61%Fri 1 Jan
  153. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro70%Thu 31 Dec
  154. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA67%Fri 1 Jan
  155. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  156. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  157. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  158. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  159. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli97%Sun 6 Dec
  160. Iowa Senate Election Winner: Ashley Hinson (R)59%Wed 4 Nov
  161. Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?: No Hormuz Agreement95%Wed 4 Nov
  162. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  163. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  164. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  165. NY-13 House Election Margin of Victory: Democrat 65-70%56%Wed 4 Nov
  166. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  167. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  168. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 497%Fri 1 Jan
  169. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No75%Fri 1 Jan
  170. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: SpaceX53%Thu 31 Dec
  171. Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?: No87%Sun 1 Nov
  172. Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?: No100%Sun 1 Nov
  173. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  174. Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner: Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia62%Sun 25 Oct
  175. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day95%Fri 8 Jan
  176. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No98%Sat 31 Oct
  177. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  178. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  179. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  180. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  181. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  182. OpenAI IPO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  183. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  184. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 15?: Yes90%Thu 15 Oct
  185. Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  186. Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova86%Mon 26 Oct
  187. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  188. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory: Flávio Bolsonaro <4%39%Mon 26 Oct
  189. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  190. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  191. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: Yes60%Fri 1 Jan
  192. Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  193. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Milwaukee Brewers57%Sat 31 Oct
  194. South Carolina Senate Election Winner: Darline Graham Nordone (R)85%Wed 4 Nov
  195. Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  196. Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  197. Kansas Senate Election Winner: Roger Marshall (R)63%Wed 4 Nov
  198. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  199. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No98%Wed 18 Nov
  200. Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  201. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  202. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic44%Thu 31 Dec
  203. Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Chiang Wan-an63%Sun 29 Nov
  204. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  205. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: San Francisco 49ers12%Thu 1 Apr
  206. Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  207. Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October?: No82%Sun 1 Nov
  208. Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?: No85%Sun 1 Nov
  209. Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?: Yes80%Fri 1 Jan
  210. Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  211. Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  212. Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?: Yes70%Fri 1 Jan
  213. Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  214. Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  215. Bachelorette Season 22 Winner: Other (Season Cancelled)88%Mon 30 Nov
  216. Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  217. Will GameStop acquire eBay?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  218. GTA 6 launch postponed again?: No95%Fri 20 Nov
  219. Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  220. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No96%Mon 30 Nov
  221. Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No60%Fri 1 Jan
  222. All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  223. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Yashar60%Wed 28 Oct
  224. North Carolina Senate Election Winner: Roy Cooper (D)93%Wed 4 Nov
  225. Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  226. Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  227. Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?: China79%Fri 1 Jan
  228. Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?: No meeting before 202796%Fri 1 Jan
  229. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro79%Sun 25 Oct
  230. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?: No89%Sun 1 Nov
  231. Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  232. StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  233. US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?: No63%Fri 1 Jan
  234. Texas Governor Election Winner: Greg Abbott (R)78%Wed 4 Nov
  235. US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  236. AI bubble burst in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  237. Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?: 320-33922%Fri 16 Oct
  238. Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  239. Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  240. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?: Yes51%Thu 31 Dec
  241. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202695%Fri 1 Jan
  242. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?: Yes67%Mon 30 Nov
  243. Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?: No93%Sat 31 Oct
  244. China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 4.0–5.0%92%Sun 31 Jan
  245. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes98%Thu 1 Apr
  246. Nebraska Senate Election Winner : Pete Ricketts (R)73%Wed 4 Nov
  247. Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  248. Human moon landing in 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  249. Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  250. Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.