AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Edition of Monday, 12 April 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Wed 14 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Monday, 12 April 2027.

Politics

Democrats captured house and senate, triggered Shutdown

The party won both chambers and a Shutdown unfolded under the new Democratic majority.

62% certain
lead market 62%next 38%1 venuesettles Tue 1 Dec

On Tuesday 1 December, Democrats secured majorities in both the house and the senate, ending Republican control of Congress. The victories gave the party control of both chambers for the first time in a midterm cycle. The new Democratic majority then faced a budget impasse that led to a Shutdown declared on Monday 1 February.

On Sunday 15 November, the election result confirmed that Republicans failed to win a house majority. The outcome meant Democrats held enough seats to control the chamber. The shift reversed a narrow Republican hold that had rested on a single independent vote.

Read the full report

World

U.S. did not acquire Greenland in 2026

The United States neither secured any part of Greenland nor launched an invasion in 2026.

97% certain
lead market 97%next 3%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

World

Iranian regime remained in power

The United States also failed to obtain Iranian enriched uranium and the blockade remained in place.

58% certain
lead market 58%next 42%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Fed Decision in October?: No change80%Thu 29 Oct
  3. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot47%Wed 28 Oct
  4. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  5. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party91%Wed 4 Nov
  6. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep61%Wed 4 Nov
  7. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)95%Fri 1 Jan
  8. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party64%Wed 4 Nov
  9. US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes90%Sat 31 Oct
  10. Michigan Senate Election Winner: Abdul El-Sayed (D)69%Wed 4 Nov
  11. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No76%Wed 4 Nov
  12. US recession by end of 2026?: No93%Sun 31 Jan
  13. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  14. Ohio Senate Election Winner: Sherrod Brown (D)60%Wed 4 Nov
  15. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%59%Fri 1 Jan
  16. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  17. US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  18. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  19. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase75%Wed 9 Dec
  20. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  21. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Google69%Sat 31 Oct
  22. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  23. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  24. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  25. Alaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola74%Wed 4 Nov
  26. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  27. Another Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes79%Thu 10 Dec
  28. Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?: No87%Sun 1 Nov
  29. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  30. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  31. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  32. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day96%Fri 8 Jan
  33. Michigan Governor Election Winner: Jocelyn Benson (D)91%Wed 4 Nov
  34. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No72%Fri 1 Jan
  35. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  36. Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October?: No88%Sun 1 Nov
  37. Nevada Governor Election Winner: Aaron Ford (D)53%Wed 4 Nov
  38. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  39. Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  40. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 14?: Yes92%Wed 14 Oct
  41. Iran leadership change by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  42. Alaska Governor Election Winner : Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins74%Wed 4 Nov
  43. Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?: Yes76%Sun 1 Nov
  44. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  45. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic43%Thu 31 Dec
  46. Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No80%Fri 1 Jan
  47. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Yashar58%Wed 28 Oct
  48. US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  49. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?: No86%Sat 31 Oct
  50. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  51. US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?: No58%Fri 1 Jan
  52. US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?: No58%Mon 30 Nov
  53. US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  54. Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  55. How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 2 (50 bps)67%Thu 31 Dec
  56. Cuban regime falls in 2026?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  57. Will Russia invade another country in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  58. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 20-2444%Wed 28 Oct
  59. Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  60. Ohio Governor Election Winner: Amy Acton (D)72%Wed 4 Nov
  61. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No64%Tue 1 Dec
  62. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?: Yes82%Tue 5 Jan
  63. Arizona Governor Election Winner: Katie Hobbs (D)88%Wed 4 Nov
  64. Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?: Yes70%Fri 1 Jan
  65. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  66. Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?: Oil ≥ $85; D Senate53%Wed 4 Nov
  67. Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?: No69%Thu 31 Dec
  68. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes62%Tue 1 Dec
  69. Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day58%Mon 1 Feb
  70. Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  71. Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  72. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No97%Fri 29 Jan
  73. Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?: Yes85%Sat 17 Oct
  74. September Inflation US - Annual: 3.6%47%Thu 15 Oct
  75. US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?: Yes78%Wed 4 Nov
  76. Fed Decision in January?: No change67%Thu 28 Jan
  77. Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy): No88%Sat 31 Oct
  78. Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  79. StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  80. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?: No90%Tue 5 Jan
  81. OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  82. Fed decisions (Sep–Dec): Hike–Pause–Hike64%Wed 9 Dec
  83. Which company has the best AI model end of November?: Google50%Tue 1 Dec
  84. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes92%Sun 15 Nov
  85. Bank of England decision in November?: 25 bps increase89%Thu 5 Nov
  86. Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?: No99%Fri 29 Jan
  87. When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?: No release by November 192%Sun 18 Oct
  88. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No93%Sun 15 Nov
  89. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?: Yes84%Thu 31 Dec
  90. StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  91. Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  92. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?: No100%Sun 1 Nov
  93. Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?: No86%Sun 1 Nov
  94. Bank of Japan Decision in October?: No change96%Fri 30 Oct
  95. Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  96. Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?: Shutdown & Democratic Party91%Mon 1 Feb
  97. Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  98. Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 14, 2026?: Yes75%Thu 15 Oct
  99. Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  100. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?: Anthropic85%Sun 1 Nov
  101. Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday70%Mon 1 Feb
  102. #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On): Anthropic49%Sat 31 Oct
  103. Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  104. Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  105. September Inflation US - Monthly: 0.6%48%Thu 15 Oct
  106. Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  107. Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday58%Fri 1 Jan
  108. Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026: 0.8-1.1%57%Fri 30 Oct
  109. Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November: No change81%Wed 4 Nov
  110. Bitcoin price on October 14?: 82,000-84,00059%Wed 14 Oct
  111. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 14?: Yes98%Wed 14 Oct
  112. IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  113. Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?: Anthropic90%Sun 1 Nov
  114. Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?: No release by October 3190%Wed 14 Oct
  115. Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?: 1.3%+48%Fri 30 Oct
  116. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?: Anthropic57%Sat 31 Oct
  117. Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On): Google72%Sat 31 Oct
  118. Second-best AI Agent Lab end of October?: OpenAI69%Sat 31 Oct
  119. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?: Anthropic94%Sat 31 Oct
  120. US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  121. Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of October?: OpenAI94%Sat 31 Oct
  122. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?: Anthropic69%Sat 31 Oct
  123. Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?: October 1423%Thu 15 Oct
  124. UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?: 0.4–0.5%35%Fri 13 Nov
  125. Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM): 0.0 to 0.1%43%Fri 30 Oct
  126. Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?: No release by October 3176%Sat 17 Oct
  127. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of October?: Anthropic95%Sat 31 Oct
  128. Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?: OpenAI88%Sun 1 Nov
  129. Which company has the best Image Edit AI end of October?: OpenAI82%Sun 1 Nov
  130. Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?: did not happen75%Fri 30 Oct
  131. Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  132. Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  133. SpaceX (SPCX) closes week of Oct 12 at ___?: $155-$16030%Fri 16 Oct
  134. Will SpaceX (SPCX) finish week of October 12 above $135?: Yes92%Fri 16 Oct
  135. Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $70 Week of October 12 2026?: No92%Fri 16 Oct
  136. Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in Arizona?: Yes73%Wed 14 Oct
  137. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  138. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  139. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei85%Thu 31 Dec
  140. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane56%Sat 31 Oct
  141. Texas Senate Election Winner: James Talarico (D)63%Wed 4 Nov
  142. VA-06 House Election Winner: Ben Cline (R)88%Wed 4 Nov
  143. Trump out as President before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  144. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  145. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  146. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  147. Maine Senate Election Winner: Troy Jackson (D)59%Wed 4 Nov
  148. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  149. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  150. Next Prime Minister of Serbia?: Aleksandar Vučić75%Sun 25 Oct
  151. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes92%Sat 31 Oct
  152. Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  153. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  154. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA81%Fri 1 Jan
  155. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro70%Thu 31 Dec
  156. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  157. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  158. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  159. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  160. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli97%Sun 6 Dec
  161. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  162. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  163. Iowa Senate Election Winner: Ashley Hinson (R)59%Wed 4 Nov
  164. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  165. NY-01 House Election Margin of Victory: Republican 0-3%56%Wed 4 Nov
  166. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  167. US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?: Yes94%Thu 15 Oct
  168. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  169. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  170. Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  171. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  172. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  173. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No79%Tue 5 Jan
  174. OpenAI IPO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  175. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  176. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No74%Fri 1 Jan
  177. Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?: No Hormuz Agreement90%Wed 4 Nov
  178. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic52%Thu 31 Dec
  179. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  180. Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  181. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202697%Fri 1 Jan
  182. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No94%Mon 4 Jan
  183. Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner: Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia62%Sun 25 Oct
  184. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  185. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  186. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  187. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No72%Fri 1 Jan
  188. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  189. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  190. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  191. Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  192. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  193. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  194. Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?: China75%Fri 1 Jan
  195. Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova86%Mon 26 Oct
  196. Wisconsin Governor Election Winner: David Crowley (D)81%Wed 4 Nov
  197. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  198. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  199. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: Yes61%Fri 1 Jan
  200. New Hampshire Senate Election Winner: Chris Pappas (D)87%Wed 4 Nov
  201. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory: Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%43%Mon 26 Oct
  202. Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  203. Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  204. South Carolina Senate Election Winner: Darline Graham Nordone (R)85%Wed 4 Nov
  205. Kansas Senate Election Winner: Roger Marshall (R)63%Wed 4 Nov
  206. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No98%Wed 18 Nov
  207. Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  208. Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  209. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  210. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Milwaukee Brewers43%Sat 31 Oct
  211. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: San Francisco 49ers12%Thu 1 Apr
  212. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No91%Thu 31 Dec
  213. Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  214. Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Chiang Wan-an65%Sun 29 Nov
  215. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  216. Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  217. Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?: No72%Fri 1 Jan
  218. Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  219. Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?: No meeting before 202793%Fri 1 Jan
  220. Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  221. Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?: Yes68%Fri 1 Jan
  222. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  223. Will GameStop acquire eBay?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  224. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Vancouver Whitecaps FC29%Fri 1 Jan
  225. GTA 6 launch postponed again?: No96%Fri 20 Nov
  226. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No96%Mon 30 Nov
  227. Manchester City FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Manchester City FC67%Wed 14 Oct
  228. Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 167%Thu 31 Dec
  229. Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  230. All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  231. Georgia Senate Election Winner: Jon Ossoff (D) 95%Wed 4 Nov
  232. Iowa Governor Election Winner: Rob Sand (D)86%Wed 4 Nov
  233. Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?: 260-27937%Fri 16 Oct
  234. Nebraska Senate Election Winner : Pete Ricketts (R)72%Wed 4 Nov
  235. North Carolina Senate Election Winner: Roy Cooper (D)93%Wed 4 Nov
  236. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  237. Texas Governor Election Winner: Greg Abbott (R)80%Wed 4 Nov
  238. AI bubble burst in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  239. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro79%Sun 25 Oct
  240. Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  241. Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  242. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?: Yes53%Thu 31 Dec
  243. Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  244. Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  245. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?: Yes69%Mon 30 Nov
  246. China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 4.0–5.0%92%Sun 31 Jan
  247. ECB Interest Rates: October 2026: No change89%Fri 30 Oct
  248. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes98%Thu 1 Apr
  249. Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?: Yes99%Fri 1 Jan
  250. Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.