AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Sunday, 11 October 2026
Edition of Friday, 9 April 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sun 11 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Friday, 9 April 2027.

Economics

Eurozone inflation stayed above 3% as China grew 4-5%

Global price pressures remained moderate; inflation stayed below 5% and Growth stayed within the 4-5% range.

60% certain
lead market 60%next 16%1 venuesettles Wed 6 Jan

On Sunday the Euro area reported an inflation rate of at least 3% for 2026. At the same time China's national accounts showed Growth between 4% and 5% for the year.

Data released on Wednesday confirmed that the inflation measure stayed at or above the 3% level throughout the year. The reading contrasted with earlier expectations of a lower range. The rate's persistence suggested price pressures were contained but not negligible.

Read the full report

World

US, Israel and Yemen kept ceasefires through October 31

Ceasefires between Israel and Iran and between the United States and Yemen held through Oct. 31, while the U.S., Iran truce lasted through the U.S. midterm elections.

75% certain
lead market 75%next 25%1 venuesettles Wed 4 Nov

Politics

Pete Fry elected mayor of Vancouver

Mayoral races across British Columbia finished on October 18, delivering New leaders in Victoria and Surrey.

42% certain
lead market 42%next 36%1 venuesettles Sun 18 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Texas Senate Election Winner: James Talarico (D)64%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Michigan Senate Election Winner: Abdul El-Sayed (D)68%Wed 4 Nov
  3. Ohio Senate Election Winner: Sherrod Brown (D)60%Wed 4 Nov
  4. Iowa Senate Election Winner: Ashley Hinson (R)59%Wed 4 Nov
  5. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot42%Wed 28 Oct
  6. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party91%Wed 4 Nov
  7. New Hampshire Senate Election Winner: Chris Pappas (D)88%Wed 4 Nov
  8. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep61%Wed 4 Nov
  9. Georgia Senate Election Winner: Jon Ossoff (D) 95%Wed 4 Nov
  10. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party63%Wed 4 Nov
  11. US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes88%Sat 31 Oct
  12. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  13. US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?: No91%Sun 1 Nov
  14. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  15. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes90%Sat 31 Oct
  16. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  17. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  18. US GDP growth in Q3 2026?: ≥3.0%72%Fri 30 Oct
  19. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No86%Tue 5 Jan
  20. Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  21. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  22. Alaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola73%Wed 4 Nov
  23. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  24. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  25. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  26. Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  27. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  28. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Google41%Thu 31 Dec
  29. Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026?: 340-35930%Tue 13 Oct
  30. South Carolina Senate Election Winner: Darline Graham Nordone (R)85%Wed 4 Nov
  31. Kansas Senate Election Winner: Roger Marshall (R)63%Wed 4 Nov
  32. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes64%Wed 4 Nov
  33. Argentina Monthly Inflation - September: 1.9 to 2.1%65%Tue 13 Oct
  34. US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  35. US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?: No58%Fri 1 Jan
  36. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  37. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Likud50%Wed 28 Oct
  38. ECB Interest Rates: October 2026: No change92%Fri 30 Oct
  39. Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  40. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  41. Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  42. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 20-2439%Wed 28 Oct
  43. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?: Yes82%Tue 5 Jan
  44. Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  45. Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  46. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  47. How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: <550%Fri 1 Jan
  48. Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner: Pete Fry62%Sun 18 Oct
  49. Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?: No97%Sat 2 Jan
  50. Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy): No85%Sat 31 Oct
  51. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?: No87%Tue 5 Jan
  52. Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  53. OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  54. Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  55. Bank of Canada Decision in October?: No Change83%Wed 28 Oct
  56. Which company has the best AI model end of November?: Google52%Tue 1 Dec
  57. China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 4.0–5.0%95%Sun 31 Jan
  58. "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office: 27-30m53%Sun 11 Oct
  59. September Inflation US - Annual: 3.6%44%Thu 15 Oct
  60. US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?: Yes75%Wed 4 Nov
  61. Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  62. Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  63. Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  64. Shanghai Rolex Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Gea: Arthur Gea65%Mon 19 Oct
  65. Euro area’s inflation rate in 2026: 3.0% or more60%Wed 6 Jan
  66. Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  67. Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  68. Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $100 by the end of 2026?: No84%Thu 31 Dec
  69. Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  70. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?: Anthropic87%Sun 1 Nov
  71. Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?: No72%Sun 1 Nov
  72. Bank of Israel Decision in October?: No Change83%Wed 21 Oct
  73. Shanghai Rolex Masters: Karen Khachanov vs Adrian Mannarino: Karen Khachanov100%Mon 19 Oct
  74. Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026: 0.8-1.1%57%Fri 30 Oct
  75. Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  76. IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  77. Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?: 1.3%+44%Fri 30 Oct
  78. South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?: 3.0–3.4%38%Wed 28 Oct
  79. September Inflation US - Monthly: 0.6%41%Thu 15 Oct
  80. US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes85%Sat 31 Oct
  81. Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Zac de Vries64%Sun 18 Oct
  82. Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?: Anthropic80%Sun 1 Nov
  83. "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office: 5-7m53%Sun 11 Oct
  84. China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?: 4.3-4.6%91%Wed 21 Oct
  85. US headline inflation rate in September (month-over-month CPI): Above 0.4%62%Wed 14 Oct
  86. Kamloops, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Mike O'Reilly72%Sun 18 Oct
  87. Surrey Mayoral Election: Brenda Locke79%Sun 18 Oct
  88. Bank of Japan interest rate decision — October 2026: No change91%Fri 30 Oct
  89. Core CPI YoY - September 2026: 2.5%37%Thu 15 Oct
  90. Central Bank of Colombia decision in October: No change62%Fri 30 Oct
  91. US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  92. Core CPI MoM - September 2026: 0.2%45%Thu 15 Oct
  93. Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex de Minaur vs Rei Sakamoto: Alex de Minaur69%Mon 19 Oct
  94. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?: Anthropic58%Sat 31 Oct
  95. Second-best AI Lab end of October?: Anthropic71%Sat 31 Oct
  96. Richmond Mayoral Election: Kash Heed42%Sun 18 Oct
  97. Revelstoke, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Gary Sulz62%Sun 18 Oct
  98. Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 11?: Yes62%Mon 12 Oct
  99. Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?: No69%Thu 15 Oct
  100. Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?: 3.0-3.5%43%Fri 30 Oct
  101. PPI YoY - September 2026: 5.9%+62%Fri 16 Oct
  102. September Inflation China - Annual: 0.9% to 1.0%66%Wed 14 Oct
  103. Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?: 80-9926%Tue 13 Oct
  104. Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Bublik vs Brandon Nakashima: Brandon Nakashima53%Mon 19 Oct
  105. Shanghai Rolex Masters: Hubert Hurkacz vs Yi Zhou: Hubert Hurkacz87%Mon 19 Oct
  106. Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 15?: Yes70%Fri 16 Oct
  107. "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office: 12-13m56%Sun 11 Oct
  108. Kelowna Mayoral Election: Ron Cannan56%Sun 18 Oct
  109. Coquitlam, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Craig Hodge89%Sat 17 Oct
  110. Delta, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Dylan Kruger49%Sun 18 Oct
  111. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?: Anthropic74%Sat 31 Oct
  112. "Digger" 2nd Weekend Box Office: 3-4m87%Sun 11 Oct
  113. Fernie, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Harshan Ramadass70%Sun 18 Oct
  114. Prince George, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Simon Yu43%Sun 18 Oct
  115. Meta's Watermelon released on...?: No release by October 3143%Wed 14 Oct
  116. Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?: No release by October 3126%Tue 13 Oct
  117. Whistler, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Jack Crompton94%Sun 18 Oct
  118. Gemini Argon released on...?: October 1328%Tue 13 Oct
  119. How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 5?: 20-2427%Mon 12 Oct
  120. New Westminster, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Patrick Johnstone69%Sun 18 Oct
  121. Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 15, 2026?: No62%Thu 15 Oct
  122. What will be the top US Netflix movie this week? (October 13): Animals95%Tue 13 Oct
  123. US Core CPI inflation (month-over-month): September: Above 0.1%64%Wed 14 Oct
  124. Nanaimo Mayoral Election: Leonard Krog93%Sun 18 Oct
  125. What will be the top global Netflix movie this week? (October 13): Animals96%Tue 13 Oct
  126. Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?: October 1438%Wed 14 Oct
  127. What will be the top US Netflix show this week? (October 13): Below: Limited Series97%Tue 13 Oct
  128. Khamenei # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?: <572%Fri 16 Oct
  129. Victoria Mayoral Election: Marianne Alto95%Sun 18 Oct
  130. What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (October 13): Doing Life95%Tue 13 Oct
  131. Zelenskyy # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?: 40-5947%Tue 13 Oct
  132. Vernon, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Victor Cumming61%Sun 18 Oct
  133. Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above $10?: Yes89%Fri 16 Oct
  134. NYC Mayor # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?: 20-3981%Fri 16 Oct
  135. How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 5?: 190-20948%Mon 12 Oct
  136. What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (October 13): Doing Life94%Tue 13 Oct
  137. "Resident Evil" 4th Weekend Box Office: 7m+99%Sun 11 Oct
  138. Langley Township, BC Mayoral Election Winner: did not happen59%Sun 18 Oct
  139. What will be the top global Netflix show this week? (October 13): Below: Limited Series96%Tue 13 Oct
  140. CZ # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?: 20-3947%Fri 16 Oct
  141. Burnaby Mayoral Election: did not happen99%Sun 18 Oct
  142. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Wed 4 Nov
  143. Maine Senate Election Winner: Troy Jackson (D)59%Wed 4 Nov
  144. Next Prime Minister of Serbia?: Aleksandar Vučić68%Sun 25 Oct
  145. Wisconsin Governor Election Winner: David Crowley (D)81%Wed 4 Nov
  146. Fed Decision in October?: No change83%Thu 29 Oct
  147. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  148. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  149. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)94%Fri 1 Jan
  150. Michigan Governor Election Winner: Jocelyn Benson (D)90%Wed 4 Nov
  151. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  152. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  153. Nevada Governor Election Winner: Aaron Ford (D)53%Wed 4 Nov
  154. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  155. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro79%Sun 25 Oct
  156. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  157. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei89%Thu 31 Dec
  158. Trump out as President before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  159. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  160. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  161. Iowa Governor Election Winner: Rob Sand (D)84%Wed 4 Nov
  162. Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  163. Georgia Governor Election Winner: Rick Jackson (R)54%Wed 4 Nov
  164. US recession by end of 2026?: No93%Sun 31 Jan
  165. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane64%Sat 31 Oct
  166. VA-05 House Election Winner: John McGuire (R)91%Wed 4 Nov
  167. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  168. Arizona Governor Election Winner: Katie Hobbs (D)88%Wed 4 Nov
  169. North Carolina Senate Election Winner: Roy Cooper (D)95%Wed 4 Nov
  170. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No73%Wed 4 Nov
  171. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro70%Thu 31 Dec
  172. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  173. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  174. OpenAI IPO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  175. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  176. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli97%Sun 6 Dec
  177. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  178. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  179. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  180. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 474%Fri 1 Jan
  181. Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: Manchester City FC72%Sun 11 Oct
  182. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  183. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  184. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  185. SS Lazio vs. AC Monza: O/U 2.5: Over70%Sun 11 Oct
  186. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  187. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  188. Another Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes79%Thu 10 Dec
  189. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  190. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  191. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase73%Wed 9 Dec
  192. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  193. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  194. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  195. IL-12 House Election Margin of Victory: Republican 35-40%50%Wed 4 Nov
  196. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  197. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No98%Wed 18 Nov
  198. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  199. Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?: No88%Thu 31 Dec
  200. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  201. Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  202. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Google70%Sat 31 Oct
  203. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  204. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day95%Fri 8 Jan
  205. Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?: No91%Sun 1 Nov
  206. Which price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: 65,00043%Thu 31 Dec
  207. 1. FC Köln vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: 1. FC Köln71%Sun 11 Oct
  208. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic56%Thu 31 Dec
  209. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  210. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No96%Mon 30 Nov
  211. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  212. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  213. CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?: No94%Thu 31 Dec
  214. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202697%Fri 1 Jan
  215. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No72%Fri 1 Jan
  216. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  217. All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  218. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No94%Mon 4 Jan
  219. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  220. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA82%Fri 1 Jan
  221. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: Los Angeles Rams12%Thu 1 Apr
  222. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  223. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Vancouver Whitecaps FC43%Fri 1 Jan
  224. Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  225. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  226. Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?: China73%Fri 1 Jan
  227. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: Yes62%Fri 1 Jan
  228. Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?: Yes99%Fri 1 Jan
  229. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  230. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  231. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No98%Sat 31 Oct
  232. Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  233. Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  234. Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  235. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers43%Sat 31 Oct
  236. Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  237. Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  238. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No75%Fri 1 Jan
  239. Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  240. Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova87%Mon 26 Oct
  241. Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?: No meeting before 202793%Fri 1 Jan
  242. Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  243. Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  244. Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  245. Will GameStop acquire eBay?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  246. S&P 500 up 100% in 2026?: No99%Thu 31 Dec
  247. Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?: No73%Fri 1 Jan
  248. Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]: No83%Sat 2 Jan
  249. Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  250. Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.