38%Spider-Man: Brand New Day topped 2026 box office61%Fed ended 2026 with benchmark rate at 4.0%69%Luca Niculescu became Romania's Prime Minister61%Democrats won control of house and senate in 2026 midterms86%Mojtaba Khamenei stayed Iran's supreme leader through 202654%SpaceX completed fewer than five Starship launches in 202673%Ceasefire survived October, nuclear deal failed31%Midterm elections proceeded as scheduled63%Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz stayed open in October52%Anthropic topped AI Agent benchmarks by late October85%NATO did not invoke Article 4, Russia kept policy unchanged72%Israel kept Iran ceasefire while avoiding Greater Beirut

AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Saturday, 10 October 2026
Edition of Thursday, 8 April 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sat 10 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Thursday, 8 April 2027.

Culture

Spider-Man: Brand New Day topped 2026 box office

The film also made Obsession The most-Searched Movie on Google in 2026.

38% certain
lead market 38%next 38%1 venuesettles Thu 31 Dec

Spider-Man: Brand New Day dominated the 2026 box office and also recorded the largest opening weekend of the year. At the same time, the thriller Obsession topped Google searches for movies in 2026.

The film's total earnings placed it above Avengers: Doomsday, the Super Mario Galaxy Movie and the Odyssey, making it the Highest-grossing title of the year. Industry trackers noted the margin over its nearest rival.

Read the full report

Politics

Midterm elections proceeded as scheduled

Federal marijuana was not rescheduled before the vote and Republicans held 22 to 23 governorships.

31% certain
lead market 31%next 25%1 venuesettles Wed 4 Nov

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot44%Wed 28 Oct
  2. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)94%Fri 1 Jan
  3. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei86%Thu 31 Dec
  4. Trump out as President before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  5. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  6. Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  7. US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes87%Sat 31 Oct
  8. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day91%Fri 8 Jan
  9. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  10. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.0%61%Fri 1 Jan
  11. Another Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes79%Thu 10 Dec
  12. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes90%Sat 31 Oct
  13. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase73%Wed 9 Dec
  14. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  15. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  16. Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026?: 340-35939%Tue 13 Oct
  17. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  18. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?: No98%Thu 31 Dec
  19. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No65%Tue 1 Dec
  20. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes61%Tue 1 Dec
  21. Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Chiang Wan-an69%Sun 29 Nov
  22. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  23. How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 2 (50 bps)70%Thu 31 Dec
  24. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Likud51%Wed 28 Oct
  25. Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?: No76%Fri 1 Jan
  26. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 25-2949%Wed 28 Oct
  27. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?: No91%Thu 31 Dec
  28. Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day53%Mon 1 Feb
  29. Next Prime Minister of Romania?: Luca Niculescu97%Thu 31 Dec
  30. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes94%Sun 15 Nov
  31. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No97%Fri 29 Jan
  32. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  33. How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: <554%Fri 1 Jan
  34. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No93%Sun 15 Nov
  35. How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?: 22–2331%Wed 4 Nov
  36. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No94%Tue 3 Nov
  37. Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy): No83%Sat 31 Oct
  38. Wil Trump be impeached by the House in 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  39. Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  40. Fed decisions (Sep–Dec): Hike–Pause–Hike66%Wed 9 Dec
  41. When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?: No release by November 188%Sun 11 Oct
  42. Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?: No99%Fri 29 Jan
  43. Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  44. Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?: No88%Fri 16 Oct
  45. Fed Decision in January?: No change93%Thu 28 Jan
  46. Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  47. Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  48. September Inflation US - Annual: 3.6%40%Thu 15 Oct
  49. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No97%Mon 2 Nov
  50. Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $100 by the end of 2026?: No84%Thu 31 Dec
  51. Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  52. #1 Searched Movie on Google 2026?: Obsession38%Thu 31 Dec
  53. Nigerian Presidential Election Winner: Bola Tinubu75%Sun 17 Jan
  54. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?: Anthropic82%Sun 1 Nov
  55. Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?: No78%Mon 4 Jan
  56. Bank of Russia decision in October?: No Change85%Sat 24 Oct
  57. US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?: Yes73%Wed 4 Nov
  58. Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?: Yes63%Sun 1 Nov
  59. Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  60. September Inflation US - Monthly: 0.5%39%Thu 15 Oct
  61. Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 10, 2026?: No96%Sun 11 Oct
  62. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?: Anthropic52%Sat 31 Oct
  63. Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?: No release by October 3177%Tue 13 Oct
  64. Second-best AI Lab end of October?: Anthropic65%Sat 31 Oct
  65. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?: Anthropic66%Sat 31 Oct
  66. Will Anthropic release a new Claude Fable model before October 12, 2026?: No96%Sun 11 Oct
  67. OpenAI resumes training on...?: Not resumed by October 2081%Wed 14 Oct
  68. Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?: Anthropic86%Sun 1 Nov
  69. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?: Anthropic71%Sat 31 Oct
  70. Core CPI YoY - September 2026: 2.5%37%Thu 15 Oct
  71. US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?: No87%Sun 1 Nov
  72. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of October?: Anthropic80%Sat 31 Oct
  73. Core CPI MoM - September 2026: 0.2%43%Thu 15 Oct
  74. #3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 5?: Google78%Tue 13 Oct
  75. Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  76. Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?: Yes79%Tue 20 Oct
  77. Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?: 100-11923%Tue 13 Oct
  78. PPI YoY - September 2026: 5.9%+54%Fri 16 Oct
  79. Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?: No65%Thu 15 Oct
  80. Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?: No92%Sat 31 Oct
  81. Will Gemini 4 Argon be released publicly before October 15: No53%Wed 14 Oct
  82. Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?: No72%Sat 31 Oct
  83. Meta's Watermelon released on...?: No release by October 3129%Wed 14 Oct
  84. Gemini Argon released on...?: October 1324%Wed 14 Oct
  85. How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 5?: 30-3447%Mon 12 Oct
  86. Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?: No release by October 3123%Wed 14 Oct
  87. Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 15, 2026?: No63%Thu 15 Oct
  88. Khamenei # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?: 5-943%Fri 16 Oct
  89. Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?: No release by October 3156%Fri 16 Oct
  90. US headline inflation rate in September (month-over-month CPI): Above 0.4%62%Wed 14 Oct
  91. Zelenskyy # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?: 100-11938%Tue 13 Oct
  92. NYC Mayor # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?: 20-3983%Fri 16 Oct
  93. Ted Cruz # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?: 120-13935%Tue 13 Oct
  94. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra89%Wed 4 Nov
  95. Fed Decision in October?: No change83%Thu 29 Oct
  96. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  97. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  98. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane54%Sat 31 Oct
  99. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party91%Wed 4 Nov
  100. Texas Senate Election Winner: James Talarico (D)62%Wed 4 Nov
  101. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep61%Wed 4 Nov
  102. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  103. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  104. Maine Senate Election Winner: Troy Jackson (D)59%Wed 4 Nov
  105. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  106. Michigan Senate Election Winner: Abdul El-Sayed (D)70%Wed 4 Nov
  107. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  108. US recession by end of 2026?: No93%Sun 31 Jan
  109. Ohio Senate Election Winner: Sherrod Brown (D)60%Wed 4 Nov
  110. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  111. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party63%Wed 4 Nov
  112. VA-05 House Election Winner: John McGuire (R)89%Wed 4 Nov
  113. Next Prime Minister of Serbia?: Aleksandar Vučić61%Sun 25 Oct
  114. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro69%Thu 31 Dec
  115. Wisconsin Governor Election Winner: David Crowley (D)81%Wed 4 Nov
  116. Iowa Senate Election Winner: Ashley Hinson (R)58%Wed 4 Nov
  117. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  118. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No74%Wed 4 Nov
  119. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  120. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  121. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli96%Sun 6 Dec
  122. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  123. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  124. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  125. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  126. US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?: No88%Sun 1 Nov
  127. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  128. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  129. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  130. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic55%Thu 31 Dec
  131. OpenAI IPO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  132. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  133. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  134. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 491%Fri 1 Jan
  135. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  136. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  137. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  138. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  139. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No81%Tue 5 Jan
  140. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  141. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  142. New Hampshire Senate Election Winner: Chris Pappas (D)88%Wed 4 Nov
  143. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  144. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  145. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No98%Wed 18 Nov
  146. Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  147. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  148. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  149. Nevada Governor Election Winner: Aaron Ford (D)53%Wed 4 Nov
  150. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  151. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA81%Fri 1 Jan
  152. Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  153. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Google71%Sat 31 Oct
  154. FL-20 House Election Margin of Victory: Democrat 45-50%56%Wed 4 Nov
  155. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  156. Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?: No89%Sun 1 Nov
  157. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  158. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No97%Mon 30 Nov
  159. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No73%Fri 1 Jan
  160. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers42%Sat 31 Oct
  161. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  162. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No94%Mon 4 Jan
  163. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  164. All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?: No95%Thu 31 Dec
  165. North Carolina Senate Election Winner: Roy Cooper (D)95%Wed 4 Nov
  166. Georgia Senate Election Winner: Jon Ossoff (D) 96%Wed 4 Nov
  167. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: Los Angeles Rams12%Thu 1 Apr
  168. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  169. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  170. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro79%Sun 25 Oct
  171. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  172. Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  173. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  174. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  175. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: Yes62%Fri 1 Jan
  176. Alaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola74%Wed 4 Nov
  177. Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?: Yes99%Fri 1 Jan
  178. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  179. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  180. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No98%Sat 31 Oct
  181. Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  182. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  183. Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  184. Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  185. Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  186. Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  187. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  188. Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  189. Michigan Governor Election Winner: did not happen90%Wed 4 Nov
  190. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Google42%Thu 31 Dec
  191. Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  192. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No75%Fri 1 Jan
  193. Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  194. Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?: No meeting before 202792%Fri 1 Jan
  195. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 10?: Yes94%Sat 10 Oct
  196. Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  197. Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?: China75%Fri 1 Jan
  198. Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  199. Will GameStop acquire eBay?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  200. US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  201. Georgia Governor Election Winner: Rick Jackson (R)54%Wed 4 Nov
  202. S&P 500 up 100% in 2026?: No99%Thu 31 Dec
  203. Iowa Governor Election Winner: Rob Sand (D)84%Wed 4 Nov
  204. Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?: No73%Fri 1 Jan
  205. Kansas Senate Election Winner: Roger Marshall (R)62%Wed 4 Nov
  206. Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]: No83%Sat 2 Jan
  207. South Carolina Senate Election Winner: Darline Graham Nordone (R)85%Wed 4 Nov
  208. Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 158%Thu 31 Dec
  209. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]: No99%Thu 31 Dec
  210. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No92%Thu 31 Dec
  211. Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  212. Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova90%Mon 26 Oct
  213. Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?: Yes75%Fri 1 Jan
  214. Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  215. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes63%Wed 4 Nov
  216. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  217. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  218. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes98%Thu 1 Apr
  219. Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No56%Fri 1 Jan
  220. Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?: No80%Fri 1 Jan
  221. AI bubble burst in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  222. US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  223. Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner: Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia60%Sun 25 Oct
  224. GTA 6 launch postponed again?: No96%Fri 20 Nov
  225. Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  226. Arsenal FC vs. Leeds United FC: Arsenal FC78%Sat 10 Oct
  227. Will Alberta join the US? : No99%Fri 1 Jan
  228. Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?: No69%Thu 31 Dec
  229. Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  230. Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  231. Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  232. US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?: No53%Fri 1 Jan
  233. Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?: No75%Sun 1 Nov
  234. Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  235. Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October?: No85%Sun 1 Nov
  236. Arizona Governor Election Winner: Katie Hobbs (D)88%Wed 4 Nov
  237. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?: No89%Sun 1 Nov
  238. Iran leadership change by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  239. FC Barcelona vs. Getafe CF: FC Barcelona83%Sat 10 Oct
  240. Netanyahu out by end of 2026?: No63%Fri 1 Jan
  241. Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  242. Human moon landing in 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  243. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  244. Chelsea FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Chelsea FC73%Sat 10 Oct
  245. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Nashville SC46%Fri 1 Jan
  246. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?: Yes57%Thu 31 Dec
  247. Richest person on December 31, 2026?: Elon Musk95%Sun 3 Jan
  248. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202695%Fri 1 Jan
  249. ECB Interest Rates: October 2026: No change94%Fri 30 Oct
  250. Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.