AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Friday, 9 October 2026
Edition of Wednesday, 7 April 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Fri 9 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Wednesday, 7 April 2027.

Economics

Fed ended 2026 with 3.75% rate after two hikes

The Fed raised rates twice, left the target range at 3.75%-4.25%, and made no cuts.

25% certain
lead market 25%next 15%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

The Federal Reserve concluded 2026 with its policy rate set at 3.75 percent after two quarterly increases of 25 basis points each. The target range's upper limit stayed above 4.25 percent while the lower limit remained above 0.25 percent. No rate cuts were implemented during the year.

The first hike came in September, raising the lower bound by a quarter-point. The September meeting was followed by a pause in the October-November period. A second 25-basis-point increase was confirmed at the December meeting, completing the two-step tightening.

Read the full report

Science

OpenAI had Not resumed training on its models

Anthropic had Not launched a new Claude Fable model, and a different AI system led the performance leaderboard on Oct 12.

91% certain
lead market 91%next 1%1 venuesettles Tue 13 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra89%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot44%Wed 28 Oct
  3. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party91%Wed 4 Nov
  4. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep62%Wed 4 Nov
  5. Texas Senate Election Winner: James Talarico (D)62%Wed 4 Nov
  6. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)96%Fri 1 Jan
  7. Maine Senate Election Winner: Troy Jackson (D)58%Wed 4 Nov
  8. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei86%Thu 31 Dec
  9. Michigan Senate Election Winner: Abdul El-Sayed (D)70%Wed 4 Nov
  10. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  11. Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  12. Ohio Senate Election Winner: Sherrod Brown (D)61%Wed 4 Nov
  13. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party64%Wed 4 Nov
  14. Wisconsin Governor Election Winner: David Crowley (D)81%Wed 4 Nov
  15. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No71%Wed 4 Nov
  16. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  17. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No93%Wed 4 Nov
  18. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  19. US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?: No84%Sun 1 Nov
  20. Another Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes79%Thu 10 Dec
  21. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 494%Fri 1 Jan
  22. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  23. New Hampshire Senate Election Winner: Chris Pappas (D)88%Wed 4 Nov
  24. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes91%Sat 31 Oct
  25. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase74%Wed 9 Dec
  26. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  27. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  28. Nevada Governor Election Winner: Aaron Ford (D)53%Wed 4 Nov
  29. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  30. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No84%Tue 5 Jan
  31. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  32. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  33. Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  34. Michigan Governor Election Winner: Jocelyn Benson (D)90%Wed 4 Nov
  35. FL-20 House Election Margin of Victory: Democrat 45-50%56%Wed 4 Nov
  36. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Google71%Sat 31 Oct
  37. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  38. North Carolina Senate Election Winner: Roy Cooper (D)95%Wed 4 Nov
  39. Georgia Senate Election Winner: Jon Ossoff (D) 96%Wed 4 Nov
  40. Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  41. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  42. Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?: 320-33928%Fri 9 Oct
  43. Alaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola74%Wed 4 Nov
  44. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  45. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  46. Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  47. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No76%Fri 1 Jan
  48. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  49. Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  50. US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  51. Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?: No91%Sun 1 Nov
  52. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No91%Thu 31 Dec
  53. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes65%Wed 4 Nov
  54. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  55. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 3.75%25%Fri 1 Jan
  56. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  57. Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?: No69%Thu 31 Dec
  58. Arizona Governor Election Winner: Katie Hobbs (D)89%Wed 4 Nov
  59. Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  60. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  61. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?: Yes56%Thu 31 Dec
  62. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Likud51%Wed 28 Oct
  63. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  64. Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  65. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes71%Tue 3 Nov
  66. US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  67. Alaska Governor Election Winner : Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins78%Wed 4 Nov
  68. How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 2 (50 bps)69%Thu 31 Dec
  69. Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  70. Will Russia invade another country in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  71. Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  72. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  73. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?: Yes66%Mon 30 Nov
  74. Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  75. GPT-6.1+ Astra released in October?: No86%Sat 31 Oct
  76. Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  77. Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  78. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 20-2439%Wed 28 Oct
  79. Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?: Yes69%Fri 1 Jan
  80. Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  81. Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  82. Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  83. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in October?: No91%Sun 1 Nov
  84. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No97%Fri 29 Jan
  85. Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  86. How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: 5-652%Fri 1 Jan
  87. Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  88. StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  89. Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?: No97%Sat 2 Jan
  90. Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  91. Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  92. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  93. Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  94. Argentina Monthly Inflation - September: 1.9 to 2.1%70%Tue 13 Oct
  95. Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  96. Fed decisions (Sep–Dec): Hike–Pause–Hike65%Wed 9 Dec
  97. Fed Decision in January?: No change64%Thu 28 Jan
  98. Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  99. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?: No83%Tue 5 Jan
  100. Bank of England decision in November?: 25 bps increase89%Thu 5 Nov
  101. Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?: No99%Fri 29 Jan
  102. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?: Yes87%Thu 31 Dec
  103. Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  104. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?: No99%Thu 31 Dec
  105. Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  106. Bank of Japan Decision in October?: No change94%Fri 30 Oct
  107. Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $100 by the end of 2026?: No83%Thu 31 Dec
  108. Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  109. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?: Anthropic82%Sun 1 Nov
  110. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?: No68%Sun 1 Nov
  111. September Inflation US - Annual: 3.6%44%Thu 15 Oct
  112. Will Anthropic’s IPO S-1 be public by 16 October 2026?: No84%Thu 15 Oct
  113. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?: No97%Sun 1 Nov
  114. IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  115. "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office: 30-33m28%Sun 11 Oct
  116. Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?: Anthropic81%Sun 1 Nov
  117. Spread: Commanders (-3.5): Commanders52%Sun 11 Oct
  118. Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On): Google70%Sat 31 Oct
  119. SS Lazio vs. AC Monza: O/U 2.5: Over57%Sun 11 Oct
  120. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?: Anthropic48%Sat 31 Oct
  121. Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 10, 2026?: No96%Sun 11 Oct
  122. September Inflation China - Annual: 0.9% to 1.0%58%Wed 14 Oct
  123. Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of October 17: Patient Zero - Taylor Swift98%Tue 13 Oct
  124. Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 2 - October 9, 2026?: 120-13939%Fri 9 Oct
  125. Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 12?: No62%Tue 13 Oct
  126. Core CPI YoY - September 2026: 2.5%35%Thu 15 Oct
  127. September Inflation US - Monthly: 0.5%55%Thu 15 Oct
  128. Raiders vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5: Over55%Sun 11 Oct
  129. Georgia vs. Alabama: O/U 51.5: Under53%Sat 10 Oct
  130. Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of October?: OpenAI99%Sat 31 Oct
  131. Will Anthropic release a new Claude Fable model before October 12, 2026?: No94%Sun 11 Oct
  132. Second-best AI Agent Lab end of October?: OpenAI81%Sat 31 Oct
  133. Which company has the best Image Edit AI end of October?: OpenAI86%Sun 1 Nov
  134. Spread: Appalachian State (-9.5): Appalachian State52%Sat 10 Oct
  135. Spread: Columbia (-3.5): Marist63%Fri 9 Oct
  136. Spread: Bears (-2.5): Packers53%Sun 11 Oct
  137. PPI YoY - September 2026: 5.9%+41%Fri 16 Oct
  138. Spread: Louisville (-3.5): Louisville51%Fri 9 Oct
  139. OpenAI resumes training on...?: Not resumed by October 2095%Wed 14 Oct
  140. Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?: OpenAI75%Sat 31 Oct
  141. Core CPI MoM - September 2026: 0.2%40%Thu 15 Oct
  142. Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?: No93%Sat 31 Oct
  143. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of October?: Anthropic85%Sat 31 Oct
  144. Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?: No63%Sat 31 Oct
  145. Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?: No69%Thu 15 Oct
  146. Best AI model on October 12?: Other91%Tue 13 Oct
  147. Next Mayor of Prague: Tomáš Portlík51%Sat 10 Oct
  148. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?: Anthropic75%Sun 1 Nov
  149. Third-best AI Agent Lab end of October?: Google60%Sat 31 Oct
  150. Zelenskyy # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026?: 80-9958%Fri 9 Oct
  151. Will "The Social Reckoning" score at least 66 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: No93%Mon 12 Oct
  152. Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No82%Tue 13 Oct
  153. Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?: Yes88%Sun 1 Nov
  154. Khamenei # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026?: <583%Fri 9 Oct
  155. Will Susan Athey win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No88%Tue 13 Oct
  156. Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 15, 2026?: No62%Thu 15 Oct
  157. "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office: 5-7m63%Sun 11 Oct
  158. Will "Other Mommy" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: No86%Mon 12 Oct
  159. Next Mayor of Liberec: Tomáš Rec50%Sat 10 Oct
  160. Billboard 200 #1 Album Week of October 17: The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore99%Tue 13 Oct
  161. US headline inflation rate in September (month-over-month CPI): Above 0.4%62%Wed 14 Oct
  162. Next Mayor of Plzeň: Roman Zarzycký99%Sat 10 Oct
  163. Will Luigi Zingales win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No99%Tue 13 Oct
  164. Will Robert Barro win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No93%Tue 13 Oct
  165. Will Matthew Rabin win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No97%Tue 13 Oct
  166. Will Lawrence Katz win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No95%Tue 13 Oct
  167. Will Richard Blundell win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No90%Tue 13 Oct
  168. Will a woman win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics, Chemistry, Medicine, or Economics?: No87%Mon 12 Oct
  169. Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 5 above $10?: Yes91%Fri 9 Oct
  170. Will Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No89%Tue 13 Oct
  171. Will Demian Reidel win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No99%Tue 13 Oct
  172. Will Ernst Fehr win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No94%Tue 13 Oct
  173. Will Hal Varian win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No93%Tue 13 Oct
  174. What will be the top global Netflix movie this week? (October 13): Animals77%Tue 13 Oct
  175. Will David Autor win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No95%Tue 13 Oct
  176. US Core CPI inflation (month-over-month): September: Above 0.1%64%Wed 14 Oct
  177. Fed Decision in October?: No change83%Thu 29 Oct
  178. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  179. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  180. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane48%Sat 31 Oct
  181. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Yulia Navalnaya26%Sat 10 Oct
  182. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  183. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  184. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  185. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  186. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  187. US recession by end of 2026?: No93%Sun 31 Jan
  188. VA-05 House Election Winner: John McGuire (R)89%Wed 4 Nov
  189. Next Prime Minister of Serbia?: Aleksandar Vučić65%Sun 25 Oct
  190. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  191. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day90%Fri 8 Jan
  192. Iowa Senate Election Winner: Ashley Hinson (R)57%Wed 4 Nov
  193. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  194. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro69%Thu 31 Dec
  195. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  196. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  197. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli97%Sun 6 Dec
  198. US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes90%Sat 31 Oct
  199. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  200. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  201. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  202. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  203. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  204. OpenAI IPO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  205. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  206. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  207. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  208. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  209. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No91%Sun 1 Nov
  210. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  211. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  212. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No98%Wed 18 Nov
  213. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic56%Thu 31 Dec
  214. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  215. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  216. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA81%Fri 1 Jan
  217. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No74%Fri 1 Jan
  218. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No97%Mon 30 Nov
  219. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers43%Sat 31 Oct
  220. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro79%Sun 25 Oct
  221. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  222. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  223. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No94%Mon 4 Jan
  224. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  225. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: Los Angeles Rams12%Thu 1 Apr
  226. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  227. All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  228. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  229. Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?: No88%Sun 1 Nov
  230. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  231. Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  232. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: Yes62%Fri 1 Jan
  233. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 9?: No91%Fri 9 Oct
  234. Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?: Yes99%Fri 1 Jan
  235. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  236. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No98%Sat 31 Oct
  237. Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  238. Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  239. Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  240. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?: No97%Sun 1 Nov
  241. Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  242. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202699%Fri 1 Jan
  243. Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova87%Mon 26 Oct
  244. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Nashville SC35%Fri 1 Jan
  245. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  246. Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  247. Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  248. Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  249. Georgia Governor Election Winner: Rick Jackson (R)54%Wed 4 Nov
  250. Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.