77%Morgan Wallen finished 2026 as Billboard's top Artist37%US inflation stayed low as Fed held rate at 4.25%60%Fed finished 2026 with policy rate at 4.25% after two hikes49%Trump appointed Anna Kelly as Press Secretary58%U.S. remained in NATO and avoided default on Chinese-held debt69%Extended token fell short of $800 million FDV target78%Great powers avoided direct invasions in 202688%Putin, Zelenskyy, Macron and Infantino remained in office through 202663%Hezbollah and Hamas remained armed as Netanyahu stayed in office54%Democrats won governorships in six key states85%Iran retained control of Kharg Island and Hormuz traffic stayed disrupted44%Google topped Overall AI model rankings in October

AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Thursday, 8 October 2026
Edition of Tuesday, 6 April 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Thu 8 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Tuesday, 6 April 2027.

Culture

Morgan Wallen finished 2026 as Billboard's top Artist

AI-generated tracks stayed outside the Hot 100's top 20 and Max Martin skipped Taylor Swift's wedding.

77% certain
lead market 77%next 23%1 venuesettles Thu 31 Dec

Morgan Wallen was named the year-end #1 Artist on Billboard's 2026 chart. At the same time, AI-generated songs failed to reach the Hot 100's top-20. Additionally, Max Martin did not attend Taylor Swift's wedding.

The designation was announced on Thursday, 1 April 2027, after Billboard compiled the year-long tally of streams, sales and radio play. Wallen's ranking placed him ahead of all other artists on the year-end list. He therefore concluded the year as the chart's top performer.

Read the full report

Science

Unexpected AI model topped October 12 leaderboard

Anthropic delayed its Claude Fable launch while OpenAI kept training on hold, and an unannounced model led the October 12 benchmark.

73% certain
lead market 73%next 6%1 venuesettles Thu 15 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Fed Decision in October?: No change83%Thu 29 Oct
  3. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  4. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  5. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)94%Fri 1 Jan
  6. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  7. Trump out as President before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  8. US recession by end of 2026?: No93%Sun 31 Jan
  9. Wisconsin Governor Election Winner: David Crowley (D)81%Wed 4 Nov
  10. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%66%Fri 1 Jan
  11. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  12. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  13. US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?: No85%Sun 1 Nov
  14. Another Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes78%Thu 10 Dec
  15. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase72%Wed 9 Dec
  16. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  17. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes91%Sat 31 Oct
  18. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  19. Nevada Governor Election Winner: Aaron Ford (D)54%Wed 4 Nov
  20. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  21. Michigan Governor Election Winner: Jocelyn Benson (D)90%Wed 4 Nov
  22. Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  23. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Google69%Sat 31 Oct
  24. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  25. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  26. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  27. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  28. Iowa Governor Election Winner: Rob Sand (D)82%Wed 4 Nov
  29. Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?: No90%Sun 1 Nov
  30. Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?: No71%Fri 1 Jan
  31. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  32. Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No78%Fri 1 Jan
  33. Netanyahu out by end of 2026?: No63%Fri 1 Jan
  34. Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  35. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  36. Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  37. Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  38. ECB Interest Rates: October 2026: No change92%Fri 30 Oct
  39. [ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?: No90%Thu 31 Dec
  40. Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  41. How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 2 (50 bps)65%Thu 31 Dec
  42. Will Russia invade another country in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  43. GPT-6.1+ Astra released in October?: No77%Sat 31 Oct
  44. Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  45. Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?: No74%Fri 1 Jan
  46. Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?: Yes69%Fri 1 Jan
  47. Arizona Governor Election Winner: Katie Hobbs (D)90%Wed 4 Nov
  48. Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  49. US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?: No98%Thu 31 Dec
  50. Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  51. US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?: No58%Mon 30 Nov
  52. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No97%Fri 29 Jan
  53. Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  54. Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?: Anna Kelly49%Thu 31 Dec
  55. Wil Trump be impeached by the House in 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  56. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?: No88%Thu 31 Dec
  57. Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  58. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  59. Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  60. Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  61. Fed Decision in January?: No change65%Thu 28 Jan
  62. Argentina Monthly Inflation - September: 1.9 to 2.1%65%Tue 13 Oct
  63. Fed decisions (Sep–Dec): Hike–Pause–Hike60%Wed 9 Dec
  64. Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?: No99%Fri 29 Jan
  65. Bank of Canada Decision in October?: No Change81%Wed 28 Oct
  66. Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?: No71%Fri 1 Jan
  67. Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?: No89%Sat 31 Oct
  68. France United Left Primary Winner: Canceled93%Mon 12 Oct
  69. Best Chinese AI Company end of October?: Xiaomi44%Sat 31 Oct
  70. Gianni Infantino announces he is out as FIFA President before end of 2026?: No88%Thu 31 Dec
  71. Billboard #1 Artist 2026: Morgan Wallen86%Thu 1 Apr
  72. Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?: No91%Sun 1 Nov
  73. Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?: No89%Mon 4 Jan
  74. Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?: No98%Thu 31 Dec
  75. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?: Yes77%Thu 31 Dec
  76. Israel military action against Lebanon on October 15?: Yes82%Fri 16 Oct
  77. Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?: No77%Thu 31 Dec
  78. Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?: No72%Fri 1 Jan
  79. September Inflation US - Annual: 3.6%49%Thu 15 Oct
  80. Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No71%Fri 1 Jan
  81. China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?: 4.3-4.6%66%Tue 20 Oct
  82. Bank of Israel Decision in October?: No Change97%Wed 21 Oct
  83. Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026: 0.8-1.1%52%Fri 30 Oct
  84. IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?: No97%Sun 1 Nov
  85. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?: Anthropic80%Sun 1 Nov
  86. September Inflation US - Monthly: 0.5%37%Thu 15 Oct
  87. South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?: 2.5–2.9%36%Wed 28 Oct
  88. Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?: No87%Sun 1 Nov
  89. Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee: Raphael Glucksmann89%Sat 10 Oct
  90. Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On): Google71%Sat 31 Oct
  91. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?: Anthropic55%Sat 31 Oct
  92. Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?: 1.3%+51%Fri 30 Oct
  93. Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?: Anthropic93%Sun 1 Nov
  94. OpenAI resumes training on...?: Not resumed by October 2073%Thu 15 Oct
  95. Central Bank of Colombia decision in October: No change46%Fri 30 Oct
  96. Will Anthropic release a new Claude Fable model before October 12, 2026?: No95%Sun 11 Oct
  97. Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?: 2.5-3.0%62%Fri 30 Oct
  98. Fed interest rate decision — October 2026: No change81%Wed 28 Oct
  99. Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC - Exact Score: did not happen63%Sun 18 Oct
  100. Burgos CF vs. CE Sabadell FC - Exact Score: did not happen63%Sun 18 Oct
  101. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?: Anthropic75%Sat 31 Oct
  102. Best AI model on October 12?: Other87%Tue 13 Oct
  103. Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  104. French Socialist Primary: First Round Winner: Raphaël Glucksmann94%Sat 10 Oct
  105. Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory: Labour 15%+37%Thu 8 Oct
  106. OpenAI resumes training by October 31, 2026?: Yes72%Sun 1 Nov
  107. Olympique Lyonnais vs. OGC Nice - Exact Score: did not happen63%Sun 18 Oct
  108. Parma Calcio 1913 vs. Torino FC - Exact Score: did not happen65%Mon 19 Oct
  109. Juventus FC vs. SS Lazio - Exact Score: did not happen63%Sun 18 Oct
  110. Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?: 45-50%38%Thu 8 Oct
  111. NEC vs. Fortuna Sittard - Exact Score: did not happen63%Sun 18 Oct
  112. Abha Saudi Club vs. Al Kholood Saudi Club - Exact Score: did not happen63%Mon 19 Oct
  113. Al Fayha Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club - Exact Score: did not happen63%Mon 19 Oct
  114. Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Faisaly Saudi Club - Exact Score: did not happen63%Mon 19 Oct
  115. Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Hazem SC - Exact Score: did not happen63%Mon 19 Oct
  116. Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Green Vote Share?: 30-35%58%Thu 8 Oct
  117. Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Slavia Praha - Exact Score: did not happen63%Tue 20 Oct
  118. Sabah FK vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund - Exact Score: did not happen63%Tue 20 Oct
  119. Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No81%Tue 13 Oct
  120. Will Partha Dasgupta win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No94%Tue 13 Oct
  121. Will Susan Athey win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No90%Tue 13 Oct
  122. Next Mayor of Olomouc: Miroslava Ferancová91%Sat 10 Oct
  123. Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No98%Tue 13 Oct
  124. Next Mayor of Plzeň: Roman Zarzycký94%Sat 10 Oct
  125. Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: 3rd Place: Ewan Cameron43%Fri 9 Oct
  126. Will Luigi Zingales win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No96%Tue 13 Oct
  127. Will Andreu Mas-Colell win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No98%Tue 13 Oct
  128. Will Robert Barro win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No94%Tue 13 Oct
  129. Will Matthew Rabin win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No96%Tue 13 Oct
  130. Next Mayor of Prague: did not happen59%Sat 10 Oct
  131. Will Lawrence Katz win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No96%Tue 13 Oct
  132. Will Richard Blundell win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No90%Tue 13 Oct
  133. Will a woman win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics, Chemistry, Medicine, or Economics?: No90%Mon 12 Oct
  134. Will Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No88%Tue 13 Oct
  135. Will the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature go to a writer who writes mainly in English?: No56%Thu 8 Oct
  136. Will Demian Reidel win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No97%Tue 13 Oct
  137. Will Ernst Fehr win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No94%Tue 13 Oct
  138. Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?: No72%Sat 10 Oct
  139. Will Hal Varian win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No93%Tue 13 Oct
  140. Will David Autor win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No95%Tue 13 Oct
  141. Will Victor Chernozhukov win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?: No97%Tue 13 Oct
  142. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot45%Wed 28 Oct
  143. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party91%Wed 4 Nov
  144. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane46%Sat 31 Oct
  145. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep63%Wed 4 Nov
  146. Texas Senate Election Winner: James Talarico (D)65%Wed 4 Nov
  147. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  148. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms21%Sat 10 Oct
  149. Maine Senate Election Winner: Troy Jackson (D)60%Wed 4 Nov
  150. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  151. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei86%Thu 31 Dec
  152. Michigan Senate Election Winner: Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%Wed 4 Nov
  153. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  154. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  155. Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  156. Ohio Senate Election Winner: Sherrod Brown (D)60%Wed 4 Nov
  157. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  158. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party64%Wed 4 Nov
  159. VA-06 House Election Winner: Ben Cline (R)90%Wed 4 Nov
  160. Next Prime Minister of Serbia?: Aleksandar Vučić67%Sun 25 Oct
  161. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day90%Fri 8 Jan
  162. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  163. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro69%Thu 31 Dec
  164. Iowa Senate Election Winner: Ashley Hinson (R)57%Wed 4 Nov
  165. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No72%Wed 4 Nov
  166. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA86%Fri 1 Jan
  167. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  168. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  169. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  170. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli97%Sun 6 Dec
  171. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  172. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  173. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  174. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  175. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  176. US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes86%Sat 31 Oct
  177. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  178. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  179. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  180. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  181. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  182. New Hampshire Senate Election Winner: Chris Pappas (D)88%Wed 4 Nov
  183. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  184. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  185. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  186. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  187. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  188. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No98%Wed 18 Nov
  189. Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  190. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic55%Thu 31 Dec
  191. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 496%Fri 1 Jan
  192. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No97%Wed 4 Nov
  193. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers42%Sat 31 Oct
  194. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  195. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?: No82%Tue 5 Jan
  196. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  197. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No97%Mon 30 Nov
  198. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No70%Fri 1 Jan
  199. Georgia Senate Election Winner: Jon Ossoff (D) 96%Wed 4 Nov
  200. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  201. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No94%Mon 4 Jan
  202. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  203. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: Los Angeles Rams12%Thu 1 Apr
  204. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  205. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro76%Sun 25 Oct
  206. All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  207. OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  208. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  209. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  210. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  211. Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  212. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 8?: Yes91%Thu 8 Oct
  213. Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?: 280-29926%Fri 9 Oct
  214. Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?: Yes99%Fri 1 Jan
  215. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: Yes61%Fri 1 Jan
  216. Alaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola74%Wed 4 Nov
  217. NY-13 House Election Margin of Victory: Democrat 65-70%59%Wed 4 Nov
  218. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  219. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  220. Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  221. Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  222. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?: No97%Sun 1 Nov
  223. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  224. Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova86%Mon 26 Oct
  225. Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  226. Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  227. Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?: No meeting before 202791%Fri 1 Jan
  228. Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  229. Will GameStop acquire eBay?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  230. Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  231. Georgia Governor Election Winner: Rick Jackson (R)53%Wed 4 Nov
  232. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Google43%Thu 31 Dec
  233. Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October?: No88%Sun 1 Nov
  234. Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  235. S&P 500 up 100% in 2026?: No99%Thu 31 Dec
  236. Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  237. Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]: No84%Sat 2 Jan
  238. Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 162%Thu 31 Dec
  239. Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  240. Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  241. Kansas Senate Election Winner: Roger Marshall (R)65%Wed 4 Nov
  242. Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?: Yes80%Fri 1 Jan
  243. Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  244. South Carolina Senate Election Winner: Darline Graham Nordone (R)85%Wed 4 Nov
  245. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]: No99%Thu 31 Dec
  246. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No91%Thu 31 Dec
  247. Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  248. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes65%Wed 4 Nov
  249. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes98%Thu 1 Apr
  250. Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No56%Fri 1 Jan
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.