AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Tuesday, 6 October 2026
Edition of Sunday, 4 April 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Tue 6 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Sunday, 4 April 2027.

Culture

Bad Bunny topped Spotify's 2026 year-end list

Morgan Wallen led Billboard's 2026 Artist chart.

82% certain
lead market 82%next 10%1 venuesettles Mon 1 Feb

Bad Bunny finished 2026 as Spotify's most-streamed Artist Morgan Wallen was Billboard's top Artist of the year. An AI-generated track failed to break into the Hot 100's top-20.

The Spotify list, released on 1 February, placed Bad Bunny ahead of other global acts. The platform's year-end tally reflected streaming totals accumulated throughout 2026.

Read the full report

World

US, Russia and NATO avoided war in 2026

The United States did not declare war on Iran and remained a NATO member throughout the year.

86% certain
lead market 86%next 14%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

World|Politics

United States ended its blockade of Iran

The blockade was lifted and the United States acquired no territory in Greenland or Cuba in 2026.

50% certain
lead market 50%next 50%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot46%Wed 28 Oct
  3. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  4. Fed Decision in October?: No change79%Thu 29 Oct
  5. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party93%Wed 4 Nov
  6. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep65%Wed 4 Nov
  7. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  8. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)95%Fri 1 Jan
  9. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei85%Thu 31 Dec
  10. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms15%Sat 10 Oct
  11. CA-28 House Election Winner: Judy Chu (D)89%Wed 4 Nov
  12. Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?: No95%Thu 31 Dec
  13. US recession by end of 2026?: No93%Sun 31 Jan
  14. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party66%Wed 4 Nov
  15. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  16. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No72%Wed 4 Nov
  17. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  18. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%67%Fri 1 Jan
  19. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  20. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  21. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  22. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  23. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  24. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  25. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  26. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  27. US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?: No82%Sun 1 Nov
  28. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  29. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes90%Sat 31 Oct
  30. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Google69%Sat 31 Oct
  31. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  32. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  33. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No94%Mon 4 Jan
  34. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  35. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  36. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  37. Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  38. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  39. Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  40. US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  41. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  42. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No90%Thu 31 Dec
  43. US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  44. Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  45. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  46. Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?: No69%Thu 31 Dec
  47. Top Spotify Artist 2026: Bad Bunny82%Mon 1 Feb
  48. Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  49. US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?: Yes50%Fri 1 Jan
  50. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  51. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Yashar52%Wed 28 Oct
  52. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  53. US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  54. Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  55. Elon Musk # tweets September 29 - October 6, 2026?: 200-21960%Tue 6 Oct
  56. [ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?: No90%Thu 31 Dec
  57. Will Russia invade another country in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  58. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  59. Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?: No66%Sun 1 Nov
  60. Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?: 200-21936%Fri 9 Oct
  61. GPT-6.1+ Astra released in October?: No76%Sat 31 Oct
  62. Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  63. US GDP growth in Q3 2026?: ≥3.0%64%Fri 30 Oct
  64. Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?: Yes63%Fri 1 Jan
  65. StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  66. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 20-2435%Wed 28 Oct
  67. How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?: 22–2333%Wed 4 Nov
  68. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No94%Tue 3 Nov
  69. Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  70. Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?: No97%Sat 2 Jan
  71. OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  72. Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  73. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  74. Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?: Yes83%Sun 1 Nov
  75. Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  76. Gianni Infantino announces he is out as FIFA President before end of 2026?: No90%Thu 31 Dec
  77. Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?: No88%Sun 1 Nov
  78. Billboard #1 Artist 2026: Morgan Wallen86%Thu 1 Apr
  79. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No97%Mon 2 Nov
  80. Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?: No89%Sun 1 Nov
  81. When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?: No release by November 185%Sun 18 Oct
  82. Israel military action against Lebanon on October 15?: Yes76%Fri 16 Oct
  83. Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?: No98%Wed 4 Nov
  84. Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  85. China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?: 4.3-4.6%69%Tue 20 Oct
  86. Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?: Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  87. Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026: 0.8-1.1%39%Fri 30 Oct
  88. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?: Anthropic79%Sun 1 Nov
  89. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  90. Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?: 1.3%+42%Fri 30 Oct
  91. Elon Musk significantly backs a third party in Midterms?: No99%Thu 5 Nov
  92. South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?: 3.0–3.4%47%Wed 28 Oct
  93. Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?: Yes74%Sat 31 Oct
  94. Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On): Google64%Sat 31 Oct
  95. Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?: No77%Tue 3 Nov
  96. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?: Anthropic55%Sat 31 Oct
  97. Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?: Anthropic84%Sun 1 Nov
  98. Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?: 2.0-2.5%30%Fri 30 Oct
  99. What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?: Unabomber99%Tue 6 Oct
  100. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?: Anthropic74%Sat 31 Oct
  101. Second-best AI Lab end of October?: Anthropic72%Sat 31 Oct
  102. Donald Trump # Truth Social posts September 29 - October 6, 2026?: 140-15959%Tue 6 Oct
  103. What will be the top global Netflix show this week?: East of Eden: Limited Series97%Tue 6 Oct
  104. What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?: The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part99%Tue 6 Oct
  105. Next Mayor of Prague: Tomáš Portlík58%Sat 10 Oct
  106. Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 2 - October 9, 2026?: 160-17931%Fri 9 Oct
  107. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?: Anthropic74%Sat 31 Oct
  108. What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?: East of Eden: Limited Series98%Tue 6 Oct
  109. Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM): 0.0 to 0.1%42%Fri 30 Oct
  110. What will be the top US Netflix show this week?: A Different World: Season 199%Tue 6 Oct
  111. What will be the #2 global Netflix show this week?: Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 197%Tue 6 Oct
  112. Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?: 40-45%60%Thu 8 Oct
  113. Next Mayor of Brno: Jakub Hruška50%Sat 10 Oct
  114. Khamenei # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026?: <598%Tue 6 Oct
  115. What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?: The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part99%Tue 6 Oct
  116. Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory: Labour 15%+29%Thu 8 Oct
  117. Khamenei # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026?: <581%Fri 9 Oct
  118. Best AI model on October 12?: Other94%Tue 13 Oct
  119. NYC Mayor # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026?: 20-3973%Fri 9 Oct
  120. Zelenskyy # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026?: 80-9942%Fri 9 Oct
  121. Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $74 Week of October 5 2026?: Yes75%Fri 9 Oct
  122. Next Mayor of Olomouc: Miroslava Ferancová87%Sat 10 Oct
  123. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $790 on October 6?: No99%Tue 6 Oct
  124. Next Mayor of Liberec: Lukáš Hájek75%Sat 10 Oct
  125. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $795 on October 6?: No100%Tue 6 Oct
  126. Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Green Vote Share?: did not happen89%Thu 8 Oct
  127. Next Mayor of Ostrava: Richard Vereš61%Sat 10 Oct
  128. Next Mayor of Plzeň: Roman Zarzycký85%Sat 10 Oct
  129. CZ # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026?: 20-3949%Fri 9 Oct
  130. Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: 3rd Place: Peter Newman21%Fri 9 Oct
  131. How many views will the #1 Show on Netflix have this week?: 6-9M97%Tue 6 Oct
  132. What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?: Unabomber96%Tue 6 Oct
  133. Will a woman win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics, Chemistry, Medicine, or Economics?: Yes66%Mon 12 Oct
  134. Will the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature go to a writer who writes mainly in English?: No75%Thu 8 Oct
  135. How many views will the #1 Movie on Netflix have this week?: 24-28M99%Tue 6 Oct
  136. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  137. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane46%Sat 31 Oct
  138. Texas Senate Election Winner: James Talarico (D)63%Wed 4 Nov
  139. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  140. Maine Senate Election Winner: Troy Jackson (D)60%Wed 4 Nov
  141. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  142. Michigan Senate Election Winner: Abdul El-Sayed (D)72%Wed 4 Nov
  143. Trump out as President before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  144. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  145. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  146. Ohio Senate Election Winner: Sherrod Brown (D)60%Wed 4 Nov
  147. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  148. Wisconsin Governor Election Winner: David Crowley (D)81%Wed 4 Nov
  149. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day90%Fri 8 Jan
  150. Iowa Senate Election Winner: Ashley Hinson (R)59%Wed 4 Nov
  151. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro70%Thu 31 Dec
  152. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  153. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  154. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli97%Sun 6 Dec
  155. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  156. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  157. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  158. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  159. OpenAI IPO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  160. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  161. US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes88%Sat 31 Oct
  162. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  163. New Hampshire Senate Election Winner: Chris Pappas (D)86%Wed 4 Nov
  164. Another Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes77%Thu 10 Dec
  165. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No80%Tue 5 Jan
  166. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  167. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  168. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase73%Wed 9 Dec
  169. Nevada Governor Election Winner: Aaron Ford (D)53%Wed 4 Nov
  170. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 476%Fri 1 Jan
  171. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  172. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  173. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No97%Wed 18 Nov
  174. Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  175. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  176. Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  177. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No96%Wed 4 Nov
  178. North Carolina Senate Election Winner: Roy Cooper (D)95%Wed 4 Nov
  179. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers29%Sat 31 Oct
  180. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  181. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic53%Thu 31 Dec
  182. Georgia Senate Election Winner: Jon Ossoff (D) 96%Wed 4 Nov
  183. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA84%Fri 1 Jan
  184. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro76%Sun 25 Oct
  185. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  186. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  187. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: Buffalo Bills12%Thu 1 Apr
  188. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  189. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  190. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No96%Mon 30 Nov
  191. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No64%Fri 1 Jan
  192. All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?: No98%Thu 31 Dec
  193. Croatia vs. Spain: Spain78%Tue 6 Oct
  194. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  195. Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  196. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: Yes66%Fri 1 Jan
  197. Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?: Yes99%Fri 1 Jan
  198. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  199. Alaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola73%Wed 4 Nov
  200. AL-04 House Election Margin of Victory: Republican 55-60%60%Wed 4 Nov
  201. Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  202. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  203. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 6?: Yes92%Tue 6 Oct
  204. Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  205. Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  206. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202699%Fri 1 Jan
  207. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic46%Thu 31 Dec
  208. Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova89%Mon 26 Oct
  209. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No76%Fri 1 Jan
  210. Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?: No meeting before 202792%Fri 1 Jan
  211. Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  212. Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  213. Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  214. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  215. Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  216. Will GameStop acquire eBay?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  217. Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  218. Next Prime Minister of Serbia?: Aleksandar Vučić73%Sun 25 Oct
  219. Bachelorette Season 22 Winner: Other (Season Cancelled)88%Mon 30 Nov
  220. S&P 500 up 100% in 2026?: No99%Thu 31 Dec
  221. Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  222. Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?: No73%Fri 1 Jan
  223. Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]: No86%Sat 2 Jan
  224. Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  225. Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 163%Thu 31 Dec
  226. Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  227. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?: No98%Thu 31 Dec
  228. Iowa Governor Election Winner: Rob Sand (D)84%Wed 4 Nov
  229. Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  230. Georgia Governor Election Winner: Rick Jackson (R)52%Wed 4 Nov
  231. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]: No99%Thu 31 Dec
  232. Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?: China76%Fri 1 Jan
  233. Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?: Yes80%Fri 1 Jan
  234. Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  235. F1 Constructors' Champion: Mercedes98%Thu 1 Apr
  236. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  237. Kansas Senate Election Winner: Roger Marshall (R)68%Wed 4 Nov
  238. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  239. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes64%Wed 4 Nov
  240. Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?: No80%Fri 1 Jan
  241. England vs. Czechia: England81%Tue 6 Oct
  242. Arizona Governor Election Winner: Katie Hobbs (D)90%Wed 4 Nov
  243. Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  244. AI bubble burst in 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  245. South Carolina Senate Election Winner: Darline Graham Nordone (R)85%Wed 4 Nov
  246. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No65%Tue 1 Dec
  247. GTA 6 launch postponed again?: No96%Fri 20 Nov
  248. Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  249. Will Alberta join the US? : No99%Fri 1 Jan
  250. Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.