AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Saturday, 3 October 2026
Edition of Thursday, 1 April 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sat 3 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Thursday, 1 April 2027.

Economics|Culture

Elon Musk was Richest person at 2026 year-end

NVIDIA topped the list of Largest companies and Bad Bunny led Spotify streams.

81% certain
lead market 81%next 12%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

Elon Musk was the Richest person on December 31, 2026. NVIDIA was the Largest company at the end of December 2026. Bad Bunny was the top streaming Artist on Spotify for 2026. The rankings were confirmed on January 3, January 1 and February 1 respectively.

Musk held the top spot ahead of other notable billionaires. The assessment placed him above Warren Buffett, Sergey Brin and Larry Page.

Read the full report

Politics

Democrats won Georgia Senate seat

Democrats also captured senate seats in Michigan and Texas.

58% certain
lead market 58%next 42%2 venuessettles Wed 4 Nov

Science

Anthropic topped most AI benchmarks

Google led Overall AI model rankings while OpenAI led Image editing performance.

38% certain
lead market 38%next 31%1 venuesettles Sat 31 Oct

Economics

ECB, BoJ and Colombia kept rates steady on Friday

The European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Colombia's Central Bank left rates unchanged on Friday, while Israel did so on 21 October.

33% certain
lead market 33%next 24%1 venuesettles Wed 28 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Fed Decision in October?: No change81%Thu 29 Oct
  3. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party94%Wed 4 Nov
  4. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep63%Wed 4 Nov
  5. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  6. Maine Senate Election Winner: Troy Jackson (D)61%Wed 4 Nov
  7. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)96%Fri 1 Jan
  8. Texas Senate Election Winner: James Talarico (D)59%Wed 4 Nov
  9. Michigan Senate Election Winner: Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%Wed 4 Nov
  10. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro74%Mon 5 Oct
  11. Ohio Senate Election Winner: Sherrod Brown (D)58%Wed 4 Nov
  12. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party65%Wed 4 Nov
  13. Wisconsin Governor Election Winner: David Crowley (D)81%Wed 4 Nov
  14. WV-02 House Election Winner: Riley Moore (R)90%Wed 4 Nov
  15. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  16. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  17. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  18. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  19. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  20. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No80%Fri 1 Jan
  21. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  22. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  23. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 491%Fri 1 Jan
  24. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Renan Santos59%Mon 5 Oct
  25. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  26. Another Fed rate hike in 2026?: Yes72%Thu 10 Dec
  27. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase74%Wed 9 Dec
  28. Michigan Governor Election Winner: Jocelyn Benson (D)91%Wed 4 Nov
  29. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA81%Fri 1 Jan
  30. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No95%Wed 4 Nov
  31. US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?: No85%Sun 1 Nov
  32. Georgia Senate Election Winner: Jon Ossoff (D) 95%Wed 4 Nov
  33. Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner: Lula74%Mon 5 Oct
  34. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  35. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Google59%Sat 31 Oct
  36. Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  37. Alaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola71%Wed 4 Nov
  38. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  39. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes99%Mon 5 Oct
  40. Nevada Governor Election Winner: Joe Lombardo (R)54%Wed 4 Nov
  41. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No95%Mon 5 Oct
  42. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: No89%Thu 31 Dec
  43. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  44. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%66%Mon 5 Oct
  45. US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  46. Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?: No68%Thu 31 Dec
  47. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  48. Georgia Governor Election Winner: Rick Jackson (R)54%Wed 4 Nov
  49. GTA 6 launch postponed again?: No96%Fri 20 Nov
  50. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes63%Tue 1 Dec
  51. Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  52. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  53. US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?: Yes52%Fri 1 Jan
  54. Richest person on December 31, 2026?: Elon Musk95%Sun 3 Jan
  55. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?: Yes61%Thu 31 Dec
  56. Cuban regime falls in 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  57. Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  58. Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  59. Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  60. Top Spotify Artist 2026: Bad Bunny85%Mon 1 Feb
  61. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  62. US GDP growth in Q3 2026?: ≥3.0%63%Fri 30 Oct
  63. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  64. How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 2 (50 bps)63%Thu 31 Dec
  65. FDA approves Retatrutide this year?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  66. Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  67. ECB Interest Rates: October 2026: No change94%Fri 30 Oct
  68. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?: Yes69%Mon 30 Nov
  69. Texas Governor Election Winner: Greg Abbott (R)83%Wed 4 Nov
  70. Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  71. Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  72. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?: No92%Tue 5 Jan
  73. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share?: 2-4%49%Sun 4 Oct
  74. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?: 39%+89%Sun 4 Oct
  75. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes94%Sun 15 Nov
  76. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No97%Fri 29 Jan
  77. Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  78. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?: Yes87%Thu 31 Dec
  79. Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes99%Mon 5 Oct
  80. OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  81. Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  82. Spread: Colts (-3.5): Colts53%Sun 4 Oct
  83. Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?: No99%Fri 29 Jan
  84. Fed decisions (Sep–Dec): Hike–Pause–Hike63%Wed 9 Dec
  85. Colts vs. Commanders: Colts57%Sun 4 Oct
  86. Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No100%Mon 5 Oct
  87. Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?: No97%Sun 1 Nov
  88. Bank of Canada Decision in October?: No Change68%Wed 28 Oct
  89. Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  90. Fed Decision in January?: No change64%Thu 28 Jan
  91. Best Chinese AI Company end of October?: Xiaomi46%Sat 31 Oct
  92. Rams vs. Eagles: Rams58%Sun 4 Oct
  93. "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office: <17m98%Sun 4 Oct
  94. Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  95. Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  96. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No97%Mon 2 Nov
  97. Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No100%Mon 5 Oct
  98. Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?: No89%Sun 1 Nov
  99. Spread: Bills (-6.5): Bills55%Sun 4 Oct
  100. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  101. When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?: No release by November 182%Sun 11 Oct
  102. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?: Anthropic73%Sun 1 Nov
  103. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Minas Gerais: Lula79%Mon 5 Oct
  104. Cowboys vs. Texans: Texans56%Sun 4 Oct
  105. Spread: 49ers (-2.5): 49ers52%Sun 4 Oct
  106. #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On): Meta50%Sat 31 Oct
  107. Will Renan Santos qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No100%Mon 5 Oct
  108. "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office: 28m+98%Sun 4 Oct
  109. Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  110. Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No100%Mon 5 Oct
  111. Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?: Yes76%Sun 1 Nov
  112. Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?: Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  113. Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026: 0.8-1.1%49%Fri 30 Oct
  114. China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?: 4.3-4.6%73%Wed 21 Oct
  115. IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  116. GTA VI released by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  117. Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?: 1.3%+46%Fri 30 Oct
  118. Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On): Google57%Sat 31 Oct
  119. Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?: No99%Sun 4 Oct
  120. Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?: Google38%Sat 31 Oct
  121. South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?: 3.0–3.4%38%Wed 28 Oct
  122. Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?: Google44%Sat 31 Oct
  123. Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  124. Bank of Israel Decision in October?: No Change91%Wed 21 Oct
  125. Lula participates in debate before first round?: No99%Sat 3 Oct
  126. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?: Anthropic59%Sat 31 Oct
  127. Largest Company end of October 2026?: NVIDIA93%Sun 1 Nov
  128. Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?: No99%Mon 5 Oct
  129. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?: Anthropic60%Sat 31 Oct
  130. Second-best AI Lab end of October?: Anthropic52%Sat 31 Oct
  131. US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?: No85%Sun 1 Nov
  132. "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes): <9m90%Sun 4 Oct
  133. Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?: 2.5-3.0%30%Fri 30 Oct
  134. US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9?: Yes89%Fri 9 Oct
  135. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes71%Wed 28 Oct
  136. Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of October?: OpenAI87%Sat 31 Oct
  137. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?: Anthropic74%Sat 31 Oct
  138. Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?: No release by October 3183%Sun 11 Oct
  139. Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?: OpenAI75%Sat 31 Oct
  140. Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?: Anthropic99%Sun 1 Nov
  141. Lula or Bolsonaro favored on October 5?: Bolsonaro93%Mon 5 Oct
  142. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of October?: Anthropic79%Sat 31 Oct
  143. Which company has the best Image Edit AI end of October?: OpenAI87%Sun 1 Nov
  144. Central Bank of Colombia decision in October: No change46%Fri 30 Oct
  145. Third-best AI Agent Lab end of October?: Google48%Sat 31 Oct
  146. Jair Bolsonaro leaves Brazilian jurisdiction before October 4th 2026?: No98%Sat 3 Oct
  147. Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6?: Yes77%Wed 7 Oct
  148. Renan Santos participates in debate before first round?: No100%Sat 3 Oct
  149. Fed interest rate decision — October 2026: No change81%Wed 28 Oct
  150. Best AI model on October 12?: Other97%Tue 13 Oct
  151. How many dissent at the October Fed meeting?: 033%Wed 28 Oct
  152. 2H Spread: Broncos (-20.5): Broncos52%Sun 25 Oct
  153. Will "Digger" score at least 53 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: No80%Mon 5 Oct
  154. 2H Spread: Titans (-10.5): Browns53%Sun 25 Oct
  155. 2H Spread: Dolphins (-14.5): Dolphins52%Sun 25 Oct
  156. 2H Spread: Browns (-10.5): Browns51%Sun 25 Oct
  157. 2H Spread: Jets (-2.5): Jets52%Sun 25 Oct
  158. Will the Community movie get a 75 or higher on Metacritic?: No74%Sat 10 Oct
  159. "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office (Higher Strikes): 32-34m47%Sun 4 Oct
  160. 2H Spread: Commanders (-2.5): Commanders55%Tue 20 Oct
  161. "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office: 11-12m36%Sun 4 Oct
  162. Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM): 0.0 to 0.1%33%Fri 30 Oct
  163. Bank of Japan interest rate decision — October 2026: No change83%Fri 30 Oct
  164. 2H Spread: Cowboys (-2.5): Cowboys53%Mon 19 Oct
  165. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro54%Mon 5 Oct
  166. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No84%Fri 1 Jan
  167. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot45%Wed 28 Oct
  168. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  169. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Lamine Yamal47%Sat 31 Oct
  170. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  171. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms26%Sat 10 Oct
  172. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  173. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei89%Thu 31 Dec
  174. Trump out as President before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  175. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  176. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  177. Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  178. US recession by end of 2026?: No93%Sun 31 Jan
  179. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  180. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day91%Fri 8 Jan
  181. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro69%Thu 31 Dec
  182. Iowa Senate Election Winner: Ashley Hinson (R)58%Wed 4 Nov
  183. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: No70%Wed 4 Nov
  184. OpenAI IPO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  185. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli92%Sun 6 Dec
  186. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  187. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  188. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic56%Thu 31 Dec
  189. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  190. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  191. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  192. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  193. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  194. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  195. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%55%Fri 1 Jan
  196. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  197. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No81%Tue 5 Jan
  198. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  199. New Hampshire Senate Election Winner: Chris Pappas (D)86%Wed 4 Nov
  200. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  201. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  202. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  203. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 3?: Yes94%Sat 3 Oct
  204. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No95%Wed 18 Nov
  205. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No80%Fri 1 Jan
  206. Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  207. Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  208. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No90%Sun 1 Nov
  209. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No93%Sat 31 Oct
  210. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  211. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers30%Sat 31 Oct
  212. US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes76%Sat 31 Oct
  213. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  214. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  215. Pro Football: 2027 Champion: Buffalo Bills13%Thu 1 Apr
  216. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No95%Mon 4 Jan
  217. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  218. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  219. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  220. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro52%Sat 3 Oct
  221. All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  222. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes81%Sat 31 Oct
  223. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  224. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No62%Fri 1 Jan
  225. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  226. Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?: Yes99%Fri 1 Jan
  227. Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  228. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: Yes61%Fri 1 Jan
  229. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  230. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  231. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  232. Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?: No95%Thu 31 Dec
  233. Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  234. Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  235. Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  236. VA-03 House Election Margin of Victory: Democrat 55%+60%Wed 4 Nov
  237. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  238. Spain vs. Czechia: Spain79%Sat 3 Oct
  239. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No74%Fri 1 Jan
  240. Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  241. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic51%Thu 31 Dec
  242. Argentina vs. Burkina Faso: Argentina87%Sat 3 Oct
  243. Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  244. Will GameStop acquire eBay?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  245. Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  246. S&P 500 up 100% in 2026?: No99%Thu 31 Dec
  247. Bachelorette Season 22 Winner: Other (Season Cancelled)87%Mon 30 Nov
  248. Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 September 28-October 4?: No97%Mon 5 Oct
  249. Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  250. Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.