69%U.S. avoided recession as global Growth topped 2.5%56%Mojtaba Khamenei remained Iran's leader through 202662%Democrats won majorities in the house and senate94%China avoided Taiwan invasion and Japan clash in 202685%Israel struck four countries in 202658%Xavier Becerra elected governor of California60%Democrats captured senate seats in Texas, Michigan, Maine and Alaska34%Olivia Chow elected mayor of Toronto39%Gadi Eisenkot became Prime Minister after Yashar won election63%Israel failed to normalise ties with Saudi Arabia22%Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms won the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize33%U.S. CPI rose 0.6% in September as Argentina inflation hit 2%

AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Tuesday, 29 September 2026
Edition of Sunday, 28 March 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Tue 29 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Sunday, 28 March 2027.

Economics

U.S. avoided recession as global Growth topped 2.5%

China posted 4-5% Growth in 2026 while the world economy expanded above 2.5%.

69% certain
lead market 69%next 46%2 venuessettles Fri 29 Jan

The United States avoided a recession through 2026. China recorded annual GDP Growth between 4% and 5% for 2026. Global GDP grew by more than 2.5% in 2026.

The United States did not enter a recession in 2026. The determination was made on Sunday, 31 January. The finding ruled out a recession by the end of the year.

Read the full report

Politics

Olivia Chow elected mayor of Toronto

Olivia Chow won Toronto's Mayoral race while Pete Fry secured Vancouver's mayoralty in the October 2026 municipal elections.

34% certain
lead market 34%next 32%1 venuesettles Wed 28 Oct

World

Israel-Iran ceasefire held through September

The Israel-Iran ceasefire survived September, while the United States neither signed a peace pact nor launched a new ceasefire with Iran.

95% certain
lead market 95%next 5%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra91%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  3. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot48%Tue 27 Oct
  4. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  5. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes60%Wed 4 Nov
  6. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No65%Tue 1 Dec
  7. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes71%Tue 3 Nov
  8. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes64%Tue 1 Dec
  9. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms22%Sat 10 Oct
  10. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei85%Thu 31 Dec
  11. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes93%Sun 15 Nov
  12. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  13. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party92%Tue 5 Jan
  14. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No93%Sun 15 Nov
  15. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes98%Wed 30 Sept
  16. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  17. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No98%Tue 3 Nov
  18. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party62%Tue 3 Nov
  19. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  20. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic99%Wed 30 Sept
  21. US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes97%Wed 30 Sept
  22. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes64%Tue 3 Nov
  23. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  24. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: Yes61%Tue 3 Nov
  25. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  26. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  27. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  28. Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Nithya Raman58%Thu 31 Dec
  29. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  30. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  31. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  32. Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?: Yes62%Wed 4 Nov
  33. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 495%Fri 1 Jan
  34. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes98%Wed 30 Sept
  35. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  36. US recession by end of 2026?: No91%Sun 31 Jan
  37. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  38. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  39. Alaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola71%Tue 3 Nov
  40. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes85%Sat 31 Oct
  41. Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  42. Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?: Yes93%Sat 7 Nov
  43. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  44. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  45. Quebec General Election Winner: PQ96%Mon 5 Oct
  46. Will Democrats have 225 or more seats after the 2026 House Elections?: Yes77%Tue 3 Nov
  47. Iran full airspace closure by September 30?: No98%Tue 26 Jan
  48. Largest Company end of September?: NVIDIA100%Thu 1 Oct
  49. US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes56%Sat 31 Oct
  50. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No91%Sun 1 Nov
  51. Will the US or China officially announce a Busan trade truce extension past Nov 10, 2026, by November 6, 2026?: Yes97%Fri 6 Nov
  52. China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 4.0–5.0%90%Sun 31 Jan
  53. Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  54. Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?: No82%Thu 1 Oct
  55. Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  56. Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?: No77%Sat 3 Oct
  57. GDP growth in 2026: >2.5%69%Fri 29 Jan
  58. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won: PL99%Sun 4 Oct
  59. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Yashar59%Wed 28 Oct
  60. Next Premier of Quebec: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon97%Mon 5 Oct
  61. Did OpenAI just solve hodge??: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  62. China Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Alex Molcan: Alex Molcan100%Tue 6 Oct
  63. Will the US sign a peace agreement based on Iran's 14-point plan before September 30, 2026?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  64. Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  65. Israel and Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations before Israel's elections?: No97%Mon 26 Oct
  66. Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner: Pete Fry65%Sun 18 Oct
  67. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?: Anthropic99%Wed 30 Sept
  68. Toronto Mayoral Election Winner: Olivia Chow86%Tue 27 Oct
  69. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 20-2439%Tue 27 Oct
  70. China Open, Qualification: Jiaqi Wang vs Zhuoxuan Bai: Zhuoxuan Bai54%Tue 6 Oct
  71. Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  72. China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Han Shi: Elvina Kalieva73%Tue 6 Oct
  73. Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?: No99%Tue 27 Oct
  74. Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner: PL60%Mon 5 Oct
  75. Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  76. China Open, Qualification: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Xiaodi You: Marina Bassols Ribera92%Tue 6 Oct
  77. Will the date for the next Israeli legislative election be postponed?: No98%Tue 27 Oct
  78. Will the Anthropic-Blackstone enterprise AI services firm name its first customer by Sept 30, 2026?: Yes86%Wed 30 Sept
  79. São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place: André do Prado62%Sun 4 Oct
  80. September Inflation US - Annual: 3.6%52%Thu 15 Oct
  81. São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place: Guilherme Derrite72%Sun 4 Oct
  82. Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes95%Wed 14 Oct
  83. Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place: Bia Kicis58%Mon 5 Oct
  84. Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  85. Paraná Senate Election: 1st Place: Deltan Dallagnol41%Mon 5 Oct
  86. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held: PL99%Mon 5 Oct
  87. Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner: Mark Sutcliffe98%Mon 26 Oct
  88. Santa Catarina Senate Election: 2nd Place: Carlos Bolsonaro51%Mon 5 Oct
  89. Bahia Senate Election: 1st Place: Rui Costa83%Mon 5 Oct
  90. How many Israeli elections before government formed?: 157%Tue 27 Oct
  91. Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group A: LGD Gaming66%Tue 29 Sept
  92. September Inflation US - Monthly: 0.6%45%Thu 15 Oct
  93. Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics?: Yes86%Sat 17 Oct
  94. Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?: No55%Thu 1 Oct
  95. Surrey Mayoral Election: Brenda Locke74%Sun 18 Oct
  96. Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?: Alibaba98%Wed 30 Sept
  97. Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?: No92%Wed 30 Sept
  98. Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Zac de Vries62%Sun 18 Oct
  99. LoL: Vietnam vs Malaysia (BO1) - Asian Games Group A: Vietnam100%Tue 29 Sept
  100. Oshawa, ON Mayoral Election Winner: Tito-Dante Marimpietri69%Tue 27 Oct
  101. China Open, Qualification: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jie Cui: Botic van de Zandschulp92%Tue 6 Oct
  102. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30?: No86%Thu 1 Oct
  103. OpenAI’s valuation end of September 2026?: $900B-$1.00T92%Wed 30 Sept
  104. LoL: Solary vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs: Solary71%Wed 30 Sept
  105. Dota 2: 1win vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group B: Natus Vincere52%Tue 29 Sept
  106. Core CPI YoY - September 2026: 2.4%36%Thu 15 Oct
  107. Winnipeg Mayoral Election: Scott Gillingham59%Thu 29 Oct
  108. Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  109. LoL: Vietnam vs United Arab Emirates (BO1) - Asian Games Group A: Vietnam100%Tue 29 Sept
  110. September Inflation China - Annual: 0.9% to 1.0%39%Wed 14 Oct
  111. Israel election: will Likud lose seats?: Yes93%Wed 28 Oct
  112. Richmond Mayoral Election: Rob Howard58%Sun 18 Oct
  113. Markham, ON Mayoral Election Winner: Frank Scarpitti95%Tue 27 Oct
  114. Huon Valley Mayoral Election Winner: Paul Gibson34%Wed 28 Oct
  115. Revelstoke, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Gary Sulz55%Sat 17 Oct
  116. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.025T by September 30?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  117. Will the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature go to a writer who writes mainly in English?: No72%Thu 8 Oct
  118. Argentina Monthly Inflation - September: 1.9 to 2.1%52%Tue 13 Oct
  119. Israel’s next prime minister after the 2026 election: Gadi Eisenkot61%Sun 25 Oct
  120. Will a woman win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics, Chemistry, Medicine, or Economics?: Yes70%Mon 12 Oct
  121. US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9?: Yes80%Fri 9 Oct
  122. PPI YoY - September 2026: 5.9%+33%Fri 16 Oct
  123. Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?: No63%Fri 16 Oct
  124. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 7?: No83%Thu 8 Oct
  125. Will the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize be awarded (in whole or in part) to an organization?: No59%Fri 9 Oct
  126. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro56%Sun 4 Oct
  127. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No95%Wed 4 Nov
  128. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No94%Sat 31 Oct
  129. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  130. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No57%Sat 3 Oct
  131. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)94%Fri 1 Jan
  132. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane44%Sat 31 Oct
  133. Fed Decision in October?: 25 bps increase68%Thu 29 Oct
  134. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  135. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No70%Tue 3 Nov
  136. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No95%Wed 18 Nov
  137. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes99%Fri 2 Oct
  138. Annie Andrews wins South Carolina US Senate election?: No84%Tue 3 Nov
  139. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro75%Sun 4 Oct
  140. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  141. Trump out as President before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  142. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  143. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes75%Wed 4 Nov
  144. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  145. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No61%Wed 4 Nov
  146. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  147. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  148. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  149. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  150. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  151. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro66%Thu 31 Dec
  152. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes97%Wed 30 Sept
  153. Trump out as President by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  154. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  155. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  156. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No88%Tue 3 Nov
  157. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  158. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli92%Sun 6 Dec
  159. VA-06 House Election Winner: Ben Cline (R)86%Wed 4 Nov
  160. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  161. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No91%Tue 3 Nov
  162. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  163. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep61%Tue 3 Nov
  164. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  165. Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  166. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  167. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: ≥ 4.5%49%Fri 1 Jan
  168. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  169. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  170. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  171. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  172. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  173. Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  174. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  175. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes61%Tue 3 Nov
  176. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  177. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  178. Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  179. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  180. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  181. Blue wave in 2026?: Yes86%Tue 5 Jan
  182. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No99%Wed 4 Nov
  183. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No84%Mon 30 Nov
  184. Will Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  185. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  186. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  187. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  188. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  189. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  190. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  191. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  192. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?: No87%Thu 1 Oct
  193. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No80%Tue 5 Jan
  194. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  195. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  196. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  197. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  198. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers29%Sat 31 Oct
  199. Bitcoin $87,500 in September 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  200. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  201. Will Matt Gaetz become the next Governor of Florida in 2026?: No99%Thu 26 Nov
  202. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  203. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: Yes93%Sun 1 Nov
  204. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202696%Fri 1 Jan
  205. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  206. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  207. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day94%Fri 8 Jan
  208. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes61%Mon 23 Nov
  209. Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?: Yes99%Tue 29 Sept
  210. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes93%Wed 14 Oct
  211. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No82%Tue 6 Oct
  212. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  213. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No72%Fri 1 Jan
  214. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  215. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Vancouver Whitecaps FC30%Fri 1 Jan
  216. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: SpaceX55%Thu 31 Dec
  217. Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  218. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No95%Mon 2 Nov
  219. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  220. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro53%Fri 2 Oct
  221. Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026?: No83%Tue 29 Sept
  222. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA76%Fri 1 Jan
  223. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  224. Anthropic IPO in October?: No96%Sat 31 Oct
  225. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  226. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No92%Mon 4 Jan
  227. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No86%Sun 1 Nov
  228. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  229. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  230. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase77%Wed 9 Dec
  231. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  232. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No66%Fri 1 Jan
  233. Will a non-MF group be proved this month?: Yes83%Wed 28 Oct
  234. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  235. Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  236. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes90%Wed 14 Oct
  237. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  238. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes72%Mon 30 Nov
  239. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  240. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No66%Tue 13 Oct
  241. 🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️‍⚧️✨: No77%Mon 2 Nov
  242. Will California elect a Republican governor in 2026?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  243. US Average Gas Price Is $4.600 or more on any day in September 2026?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  244. Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece: No67%Sat 3 Oct
  245. Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  246. Will Seth Bodnar win Montanas Senate Election?: No91%Tue 3 Nov
  247. US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?: No78%Sun 1 Nov
  248. Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?: No70%Fri 6 Nov
  249. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  250. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.