Economics
Fed ended 2026 with rate at 4.25% after two hikes
The Fed lifted rates twice in 2026 to 4.25% while the 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5%.
43%
certain
The six months ahead, reported from the odds
Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sun 27 Sept · not a record of events
Economics
The Fed lifted rates twice in 2026 to 4.25% while the 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5%.
Politics
Democrats captured a sizable house majority and senate control, winning more than 230 house seats.
Economics|Science
The company's S-1 filed in October, but it did not solve Navier-Stokes or reach a $3 trillion valuation.
Crypto
Day one valuations fell short as Opensea, Puffpaw, Extended and Metamask missed their expected fully-diluted caps.
World
Iran neither surrendered its enriched uranium nor withdrew from the nuclear treaty.
World
Christopher Luxon stayed New Zealand Prime Minister and Volodymyr Zelenskyy remained Ukraine's president.
Politics
The victory did not lead to a Greenland purchase, marijuana rescheduling, or increased border crossings, and Musk remained uninvolved.
World
The administration also saw no Ukraine ceasefire before the November 2026 midterm elections.
World
The Dome of the Rock survived, Strait of Hormuz traffic stayed disrupted, and the US failed to secure Iranian uranium by year-end.
World
China also refrained from blockading Taiwan and from clashing with Japan.
Science
SpaceX's Mars launch window slipped, the private Lunar payload was scrapped, and Rockstar confirmed no new GTA 6 delay.
Politics
Democrats secured the California and Wisconsin governorships while adding five senate seats, keeping Chuck Schumer as leader.
Politics
Lula topped the Presidential vote while the Liberal Party won the Chamber of Deputies.
Politics
He held office through early October and his party won fewer than twenty seats.
Science
A U.S. economist received the Nobel in Economics and a woman earned a science Nobel.
Economics
U.S. CPI rose 0.3% in September and Argentina's monthly inflation climbed to about 2%.
Science
The first Joe Rogan episode of the week also omitted SpaceX and OpenAI mentions.
Politics
The PQ secured a majority while the Liberal Party placed Second
Politics
The party also secured governorships in six states.
Economics
The index stayed below $780 and Colombia's Central Bank left rates unchanged.
World
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained below normal and the East-West Pipeline stayed offline at month-end.
Science
Anthropic also led the AI Agent ranking while OpenAI placed Second in the Agent Lab
World
By the end of September 2026 Gaza saw no Foreign intervention and no Houthi attacks on Israel or Israeli strikes in Yemen
Culture
Primetime opened with $19-22 million and Heart of the Beast earned $17-20 million.
Economics
The Fed lifted rates twice in 2026 to 4.25% while the 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5%.
The Federal Reserve increased its target rate twice in 2026, first in October and again in December, each by 25 basis points, leaving the rate at 4.25% at year-end. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year benchmark moving above the 5% level. The central bank did not lower rates at any point during the year. The policy stance remained below the 5.25% ceiling that some had feared.
A second identical hike followed at the December meeting, completing the cumulative 50-basis-point rise for 2026. Both actions were consistent with the board's assessment of inflation pressures.
Politics
The victory did not lead to a Greenland purchase, marijuana rescheduling, or increased border crossings, and Musk remained uninvolved.
World
The administration also saw no Ukraine ceasefire before the November 2026 midterm elections.
World
The Dome of the Rock survived, Strait of Hormuz traffic stayed disrupted, and the US failed to secure Iranian uranium by year-end.
World
China also refrained from blockading Taiwan and from clashing with Japan.
Science
SpaceX's Mars launch window slipped, the private Lunar payload was scrapped, and Rockstar confirmed no new GTA 6 delay.
Politics
Democrats secured the California and Wisconsin governorships while adding five senate seats, keeping Chuck Schumer as leader.
Politics
Lula topped the Presidential vote while the Liberal Party won the Chamber of Deputies.
Politics
He held office through early October and his party won fewer than twenty seats.
Science
A U.S. economist received the Nobel in Economics and a woman earned a science Nobel.
Economics
U.S. CPI rose 0.3% in September and Argentina's monthly inflation climbed to about 2%.
Science
The first Joe Rogan episode of the week also omitted SpaceX and OpenAI mentions.
Politics
The PQ secured a majority while the Liberal Party placed Second
Politics
The party also secured governorships in six states.
Economics
The index stayed below $780 and Colombia's Central Bank left rates unchanged.
World
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained below normal and the East-West Pipeline stayed offline at month-end.
Science
Anthropic also led the AI Agent ranking while OpenAI placed Second in the Agent Lab
World
By the end of September 2026 Gaza saw no Foreign intervention and no Houthi attacks on Israel or Israeli strikes in Yemen
Culture
Primetime opened with $19-22 million and Heart of the Beast earned $17-20 million.
The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.