Economics
Fed raised rates twice in 2026, ending year above 4.5%
The Federal Reserve delivered two 25-bp hikes in October and December, leaving the policy rate at least 4.5%.
56%
certain
The six months ahead, reported from the odds
Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Thu 24 Sept · not a record of events
Economics
The Federal Reserve delivered two 25-bp hikes in October and December, leaving the policy rate at least 4.5%.
Politics
The party also captured more than 230 house seats and flipped senate races in Maine, Alaska and Texas.
Science
Anthropic topped AI model rankings and OpenAI failed to reach a $2 trillion valuation.
Science
Metamask fell short of a $2 billion target and Extended missed an $800 million goal.
World
Ukraine failed to recapture Crimea while Russia did not seize Lyman.
World
Christopher Luxon stayed Prime Minister of New Zealand as Gadi Eizenkot took office in Israel.
World
Throughout 2026 China neither launched an invasion nor a blockade, and no direct military clash with Taiwan occurred.
World
Iran also did not possess a nuclear weapon by the start of 2027.
World
Strait traffic stayed disrupted and US did not obtain Iranian enriched uranium.
Politics
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins became governor and Mary Peltola unseated Dan Sullivan.
Politics|World
Eizenkot took office as the Israel-Iran ceasefire held through September and Iran's leadership remained unchanged.
Economics
Argentina's September inflation held near 2% and Romania kept its investment-grade S&P rating.
Science
A US economist earned the Nobel in Economics and the science Prize omitted any reference to AI or machine learning.
Economics
Headline consumer prices increased 0.6% and annual CPI reached 3.6% in September.
World
The leaders exchanged a 6-10 second handshake and avoided any kisses, hugs, or insults.
Politics
The PL emerged as the biggest senate bloc and Guilherme Derrite won the São Paulo seat.
Science
The firm also stayed above the $1.125 trillion low benchmark.
Crypto
The cryptocurrency stayed near $85,000, never slipping below $82,000 or breaching $90,000.
World
Iranian control of Kharg Island persisted and the US did not lift the Iranian blockade.
Politics
The administration restored access for three outlets while still lacking a Press Secretary
Science
The September program saw Flight Test 14 launch, Ship 40 recovered, and Crew-13 cancelled.
Science
Alibaba led Chinese AI firms while Anthropic-Blackstone secured its first enterprise client.
Politics
Mitch McConnell remained alive and no U.S. senator died before October 1.
Politics
Łukasz Gibała secured Kraków mayoralty and Kerry-Lynne Findlay captured Abbotsford-Mission seat in late September 2026.
Economics
The Federal Reserve delivered two 25-bp hikes in October and December, leaving the policy rate at least 4.5%.
The Federal Reserve raised its target rate twice during 2026. Each move added 25 basis points, first in October and again in December. The cumulative increase lifted the policy rate to at least 4.5 percent by year-end. No rate cuts were recorded during the year.
In October, the Fed announced a 25-basis-point increase.
World
Throughout 2026 China neither launched an invasion nor a blockade, and no direct military clash with Taiwan occurred.
World
Iran also did not possess a nuclear weapon by the start of 2027.
World
Strait traffic stayed disrupted and US did not obtain Iranian enriched uranium.
Politics
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins became governor and Mary Peltola unseated Dan Sullivan.
Politics|World
Eizenkot took office as the Israel-Iran ceasefire held through September and Iran's leadership remained unchanged.
Economics
Argentina's September inflation held near 2% and Romania kept its investment-grade S&P rating.
Science
A US economist earned the Nobel in Economics and the science Prize omitted any reference to AI or machine learning.
Economics
Headline consumer prices increased 0.6% and annual CPI reached 3.6% in September.
World
The leaders exchanged a 6-10 second handshake and avoided any kisses, hugs, or insults.
Politics
The PL emerged as the biggest senate bloc and Guilherme Derrite won the São Paulo seat.
Science
The firm also stayed above the $1.125 trillion low benchmark.
Crypto
The cryptocurrency stayed near $85,000, never slipping below $82,000 or breaching $90,000.
World
Iranian control of Kharg Island persisted and the US did not lift the Iranian blockade.
Politics
The administration restored access for three outlets while still lacking a Press Secretary
Science
The September program saw Flight Test 14 launch, Ship 40 recovered, and Crew-13 cancelled.
Science
Alibaba led Chinese AI firms while Anthropic-Blackstone secured its first enterprise client.
Politics
Mitch McConnell remained alive and no U.S. senator died before October 1.
Politics
Łukasz Gibała secured Kraków mayoralty and Kerry-Lynne Findlay captured Abbotsford-Mission seat in late September 2026.
The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.