51%Fed delivered two 25-basis-point hikes in 202658%Democrats won both chambers in 2026 Midterms69%Anthropic topped AI model rankings and reached $1.75 trillion valuation58%Extended token fell short of $500 million full-dilution value68%Russia made no territorial gains in Ukraine in 202686%Mojtaba Khamenei remained Iran's leader as nuclear status unchanged86%US did not withdraw from NATO94%China avoided invading Taiwan and clashing with Japan in 202691%Xavier Becerra won California governor's race79%Colombia and Israel left rates unchanged as US yields stayed above 4.76%51%Parti Québécois won Quebec election, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon became Premier20%Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms won the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize

AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Wednesday, 23 September 2026
Edition of Monday, 22 March 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Wed 23 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Monday, 22 March 2027.

Economics

Fed delivered two 25-basis-point hikes in 2026

Fed raised rates twice in 2026 and closed the year with the policy rate at 4.25%.

51% certain
lead market 51%next 29%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

The Federal Reserve increased its policy rate twice in 2026, each time by a quarter percentage point. Both hikes occurred in the October and December meetings. The committee avoided any rate cuts during the year and finished 2026 with the target rate at 4.25 percent.

At the October meeting, the Fed voted to raise the rate by 25 basis points. The decision followed the October 29 calendar date.

Read the full report

World

US did not withdraw from NATO

The United States also avoided declaring war on Iran and did not launch an invasion.

86% certain
lead market 86%next 14%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

Politics

FY27 NASA Budget approved larger than FY25

The administration also failed to overturn an Anthropic injunction and confirmed no Tesla-SpaceX merger by September's end.

61% certain
lead market 61%next 40%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra91%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro55%Sun 4 Oct
  3. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No95%Wed 4 Nov
  4. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  5. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  6. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)93%Fri 1 Jan
  7. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes58%Wed 4 Nov
  8. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes63%Tue 1 Dec
  9. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No66%Tue 1 Dec
  10. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep65%Tue 3 Nov
  11. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms20%Sat 10 Oct
  12. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes93%Sun 15 Nov
  13. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party93%Tue 5 Jan
  14. Fed Decision in October?: 25 bps increase53%Thu 29 Oct
  15. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei90%Thu 31 Dec
  16. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No93%Sun 15 Nov
  17. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No98%Tue 3 Nov
  18. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro72%Sun 4 Oct
  19. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic96%Wed 30 Sept
  20. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  21. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%51%Fri 1 Jan
  22. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party66%Tue 5 Jan
  23. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  24. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes61%Tue 3 Nov
  25. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  26. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  27. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  28. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No80%Tue 5 Jan
  29. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  30. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  31. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  32. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  33. Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?: Yes60%Wed 4 Nov
  34. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro50%Fri 2 Oct
  35. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No68%Fri 1 Jan
  36. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  37. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No83%Fri 1 Jan
  38. Will California elect a Republican governor in 2026?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  39. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  40. Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  41. Quebec General Election Winner: PQ92%Mon 5 Oct
  42. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  43. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  44. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No81%Sun 1 Nov
  45. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  46. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No71%Fri 1 Jan
  47. Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  48. Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase69%Wed 9 Dec
  49. Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?: No75%Fri 1 Jan
  50. Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026: No81%Sat 31 Oct
  51. Will Xavier Becerra OR Tom Steyer win the 2026 California Governor election?: Yes97%Fri 6 Nov
  52. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic69%Thu 31 Dec
  53. Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No58%Fri 1 Jan
  54. Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  55. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  56. 2026 Alberta referendum asks about secession from Canada?: No51%Mon 19 Oct
  57. Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  58. Will the FY27 NASA Budget be larger than FY25?: Yes61%Thu 1 Oct
  59. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No72%Fri 1 Jan
  60. Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  61. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No87%Sun 1 Nov
  62. US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  63. Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos)83%Sun 4 Oct
  64. Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  65. Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  66. Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  67. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  68. Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  69. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo92%Sun 4 Oct
  70. Will Russia invade another country in 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  71. Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  72. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?: Yes81%Tue 5 Jan
  73. Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?: Yes74%Fri 1 Jan
  74. How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 2 (50 bps)63%Thu 31 Dec
  75. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Anthropic86%Sat 31 Oct
  76. Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  77. Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?: No85%Sat 3 Oct
  78. StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  79. Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?: No93%Tue 10 Nov
  80. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?: No98%Fri 29 Jan
  81. StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  82. Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner: Lula69%Sun 4 Oct
  83. Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  84. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro80%Mon 5 Oct
  85. Next Premier of Quebec: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon94%Mon 5 Oct
  86. Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner: Pete Fry86%Sun 18 Oct
  87. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?: No98%Thu 31 Dec
  88. Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?: Yes99%Fri 2 Oct
  89. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?: Yes85%Thu 31 Dec
  90. Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  91. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes87%Mon 5 Oct
  92. Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  93. Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?: Anthropic91%Thu 1 Oct
  94. Will Israel attack Iraq in September 2026?: No98%Wed 30 Sept
  95. Will the Community movie get a 75 or higher on Metacritic?: No70%Sat 10 Oct
  96. Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner: Kerry-Lynne Findlay55%Sat 26 Sept
  97. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September?: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  98. Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco67%Sun 4 Oct
  99. Will SpaceX Crew-13 launch by September 30, 2026?: No99%Mon 28 Sept
  100. What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on September 30?: $1.153M - $1.169M52%Wed 30 Sept
  101. Will Trump win Nobel Piss Prize 2026? [Read description]: Yes86%Fri 16 Oct
  102. Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner: PL68%Mon 5 Oct
  103. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?: 39%+89%Sun 4 Oct
  104. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share?: 4-6%51%Sun 4 Oct
  105. Will Katharina Reiche stop being the german Minister of Energy by the next regular election?: No60%Sun 27 Sept
  106. Will the Anthropic-Blackstone enterprise AI services firm name its first customer by Sept 30, 2026?: Yes86%Wed 30 Sept
  107. Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  108. Central Bank of Colombia decision in September: No change82%Thu 1 Oct
  109. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?: Anthropic96%Thu 1 Oct
  110. What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on September 30?: $335K - $340K70%Wed 30 Sept
  111. September Inflation US - Annual: 3.6%48%Thu 15 Oct
  112. Elected Senators for Ceará in 2026: Cid Gomes52%Sun 4 Oct
  113. Elected Governor of Ceará in 2026: Ciro Gomes51%Sun 4 Oct
  114. Will the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote?: No99%Sun 27 Sept
  115. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás: Flavio Bolsonaro89%Sun 4 Oct
  116. Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  117. Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On): Anthropic97%Wed 30 Sept
  118. Paraná Senate Election: 1st Place: Filipe Barros40%Mon 5 Oct
  119. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held: PL96%Mon 5 Oct
  120. What will the median home value in New York City be on September 30?: $663K - $689K83%Wed 30 Sept
  121. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of September?: Anthropic96%Wed 30 Sept
  122. Israel military action against Greater Beirut by September 30?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  123. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?: Anthropic94%Wed 30 Sept
  124. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of September?: Anthropic93%Wed 30 Sept
  125. Kraków Mayoral Election Winner: Łukasz Gibała77%Sun 27 Sept
  126. Will the Trump administration successfully overturn the Anthropic injunction on appeal by September 30, 2026?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  127. Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics?: Yes86%Sat 17 Oct
  128. "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office: 22m+47%Sun 27 Sept
  129. US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — August 2026: 3.6% or more51%Wed 30 Sept
  130. Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes75%Wed 14 Oct
  131. Bank of Israel Decision in October?: No Change79%Wed 21 Oct
  132. Will Drake release a new album by September 30?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  133. Will New Zealand's Online Safety Bill receive a first-reading vote before October 1?: No94%Tue 29 Sept
  134. September Inflation US - Monthly: 0.6%36%Thu 15 Oct
  135. Will the For safe food – through strengthening sustainable domestic production, increasing plant-based foods and ensuring clean drinking water (food initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote?: No99%Sun 27 Sept
  136. Core CPI YoY - September 2026: 2.4%42%Thu 15 Oct
  137. Will "Primetime" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: No77%Mon 28 Sept
  138. São Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election Winner: MLSTP92%Mon 28 Sept
  139. Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $68 Week of September 21 2026?: No80%Fri 25 Sept
  140. Reggio di Calabria By-Election Winner: Fabio Roscioli93%Mon 28 Sept
  141. Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $74 Week of September 21 2026?: Yes74%Fri 25 Sept
  142. Will "Heart of the Beast" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: Yes92%Mon 28 Sept
  143. "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office: 14-17m30%Sun 27 Sept
  144. Will "Forgotten Island" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: Yes81%Mon 28 Sept
  145. "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office: 13-16m34%Sun 27 Sept
  146. Next Prime Minister of Morocco? (Invested): Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri55%Wed 23 Sept
  147. SpaceX (SPCX) closes week of Sep 21 at ___?: did not happen84%Fri 25 Sept
  148. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No94%Wed 4 Nov
  149. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No94%Sat 31 Oct
  150. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot54%Tue 27 Oct
  151. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No59%Sat 3 Oct
  152. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane53%Sat 31 Oct
  153. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  154. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No96%Wed 18 Nov
  155. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes67%Tue 3 Nov
  156. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No70%Tue 3 Nov
  157. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  158. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  159. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  160. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  161. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes75%Wed 4 Nov
  162. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes96%Wed 30 Sept
  163. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day91%Fri 8 Jan
  164. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No60%Wed 4 Nov
  165. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  166. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  167. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  168. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes91%Fri 2 Oct
  169. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  170. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli91%Sun 6 Dec
  171. LA-06 House Election Winner: Republican Party88%Wed 4 Nov
  172. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  173. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  174. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro56%Thu 31 Dec
  175. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  176. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes70%Tue 3 Nov
  177. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No88%Tue 3 Nov
  178. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes96%Wed 30 Sept
  179. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  180. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  181. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 472%Fri 1 Jan
  182. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  183. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  184. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  185. Trump out as President by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  186. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: Yes65%Tue 3 Nov
  187. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  188. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  189. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  190. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  191. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  192. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  193. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  194. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No87%Tue 3 Nov
  195. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  196. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  197. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  198. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No99%Wed 4 Nov
  199. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  200. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  201. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  202. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  203. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  204. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  205. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers29%Sat 31 Oct
  206. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No65%Mon 30 Nov
  207. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  208. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No75%Sun 27 Sept
  209. Will Matt Gaetz become the next Governor of Florida in 2026?: No99%Thu 26 Nov
  210. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  211. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  212. Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  213. US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  214. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  215. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes61%Mon 23 Nov
  216. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  217. Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Karen Bass57%Thu 31 Dec
  218. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes98%Wed 30 Sept
  219. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  220. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes92%Wed 14 Oct
  221. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  222. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: Yes82%Sun 1 Nov
  223. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 202697%Fri 1 Jan
  224. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA76%Fri 1 Jan
  225. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic57%Thu 31 Dec
  226. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No95%Mon 2 Nov
  227. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  228. Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  229. Will Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  230. Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026?: No83%Tue 29 Sept
  231. Anthropic IPO in October?: No96%Sat 31 Oct
  232. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?: No85%Thu 1 Oct
  233. US recession by end of 2026?: No93%Sun 31 Jan
  234. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  235. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  236. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Vancouver Whitecaps FC22%Fri 1 Jan
  237. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 23?: Yes91%Wed 23 Sept
  238. Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?: Yes98%Tue 29 Sept
  239. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  240. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No90%Mon 4 Jan
  241. Will a non-MF group be proved this month?: Yes83%Wed 28 Oct
  242. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No72%Tue 6 Oct
  243. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  244. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  245. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  246. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  247. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes90%Wed 14 Oct
  248. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes69%Mon 30 Nov
  249. Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?: Yes83%Thu 1 Oct
  250. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.