74%US and China completed comprehensive tariff deal by year end66%Anthropic led AI model rankings at end of October60%Extended cleared $150 million FDV on day one85%Mojtaba Khamenei remained Iran's leader through 202671%Ukraine failed to join NATO and ceasefire remained elusive in 202630%Gadi Eizenkot became Israel's Prime Minister after 2026 election67%China did not invade Taiwan in 202685%U.S. stayed in NATO and skipped Iran invasion69%Israel kept ceasefire with Iran through October 3157%Xavier Becerra won California governorship59%Democrats secured house, senate and over 230 seats63%Treasury yields held above 4.76% as Colombia and Israel left rates unchanged

AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Tuesday, 22 September 2026
Edition of Sunday, 21 March 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Tue 22 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Sunday, 21 March 2027.

Economics

US and China completed comprehensive tariff deal by year end

China recorded 4-5% Growth in 2026 and the 10-year Treasury yield remained under 5.2%.

74% certain
lead market 74%next 38%1 venuesettles Thu 31 Dec

The United States and China finalized a comprehensive tariff agreement before the end of 2026. Chinese authorities reported annual GDP Growth of between 4.0% and 5.0% for 2026. During the same year the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield never rose to 5.2%. These outcomes coincided with a relatively stable yield curve.

The deal, sealed on December 31, was described as comprehensive, covering the remaining tariff measures between the two economies. Both sides indicated that the agreement would lift the trade barriers that had been in place for several years. Implementation steps were set to begin in early 2027.

Read the full report

World

China did not invade Taiwan in 2026

Taiwan faced no invasion, blockade or clash in 2026, while Trump and Putin met in China.

67% certain
lead market 67%next 26%1 venuesettles Fri 1 Jan

Politics

Xavier Becerra won California governorship

Anthony Constantino captured New York's 21st congressional district and Karen Bass secured the Los Angeles mayoralty.

57% certain
lead market 57%next 43%1 venuesettles Thu 31 Dec

Science

NVIDIA acquired a stake in OpenAI

OpenAI also released the GPT-Luna model and reset Codex usage limits.

8% certain
lead market 8%next 8%1 venuesettles Tue 22 Sept

Science

Claude Opus launched on September 22

Google Gemini Pro was slated for October 12-18, while Gowers' proof-software launch was delayed.

42% certain
lead market 42%next 20%1 venuesettles Sun 27 Sept

Politics

Trump signed Greenland deal on Thursday

Trump posted between 100 and 119 Truth Social messages in the week before the deal.

37% certain
lead market 37%next 25%1 venuesettles Tue 22 Sept

Culture

Monster: the Lizzie Borden Story topped global shows

The true-crime series led global rankings while a romantic comedy led US movies, and the top film fell short of its 15 million-view goal.

96% certain
lead market 96%next 2%1 venuesettles Tue 22 Sept

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?: No95%Wed 4 Nov
  2. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  3. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  4. Which party will win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party93%Tue 3 Nov
  5. Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Yes59%Tue 1 Dec
  6. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  7. Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?: No61%Tue 1 Dec
  8. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep63%Tue 3 Nov
  9. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot54%Thu 31 Dec
  10. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms19%Sat 10 Oct
  11. Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: Yes90%Sun 15 Nov
  12. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  13. Trump out as President before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  14. Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?: No91%Sun 15 Nov
  15. Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei91%Thu 31 Dec
  16. Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?: No98%Tue 3 Nov
  17. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes96%Wed 30 Sept
  18. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party65%Tue 3 Nov
  19. NY-21 House Election Winner: Anthony Constantino (R)89%Wed 4 Nov
  20. Iran leadership change by December 31?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  21. Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?: Yes60%Tue 3 Nov
  22. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  23. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  24. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  25. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?: No89%Fri 1 Jan
  26. Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  27. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  28. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?: No80%Fri 1 Jan
  29. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?: No80%Fri 1 Jan
  30. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  31. Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Karen Bass57%Thu 31 Dec
  32. Next Prime Minister of Romania?: Sorin Grindeanu30%Thu 31 Dec
  33. Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?: Yes64%Wed 4 Nov
  34. Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  35. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?: No88%Fri 1 Jan
  36. Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?: No87%Fri 1 Jan
  37. Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?: Yes95%Tue 29 Sept
  38. China x Japan military clash before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  39. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  40. Iran Nuke before 2027?: No95%Fri 1 Jan
  41. Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  42. Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  43. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No80%Sun 1 Nov
  44. Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No73%Fri 1 Jan
  45. Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?: Yes85%Sat 7 Nov
  46. Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  47. Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026: No81%Sat 31 Oct
  48. Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?: No76%Fri 1 Jan
  49. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes83%Sat 31 Oct
  50. Will Xavier Becerra OR Tom Steyer win the 2026 California Governor election?: Yes97%Fri 6 Nov
  51. Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  52. Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?: No60%Fri 1 Jan
  53. Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: Anthropic66%Fri 1 Jan
  54. Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?: China67%Fri 1 Jan
  55. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  56. Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No77%Fri 1 Jan
  57. Will Trump and Xi meet in September 2026?: Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  58. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?: No71%Fri 1 Jan
  59. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  60. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No90%Sun 1 Nov
  61. How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 15+75%Fri 1 Jan
  62. Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?: No94%Mon 2 Nov
  63. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo86%Sun 4 Oct
  64. US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?: No96%Thu 31 Dec
  65. Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  66. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?: Yes69%Thu 31 Dec
  67. Will Netanyahu win the next elections in Israel?: No82%Tue 10 Nov
  68. Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  69. Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos)83%Sun 4 Oct
  70. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?: Yes81%Fri 1 Jan
  71. Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?: Yes73%Fri 1 Jan
  72. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won: PL84%Sun 4 Oct
  73. Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?: Yes98%Thu 24 Sept
  74. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Anthropic85%Sun 1 Nov
  75. Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?: No93%Tue 10 Nov
  76. Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?: No82%Fri 1 Jan
  77. China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 4.0–5.0%93%Sun 31 Jan
  78. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?: No85%Fri 1 Jan
  79. StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  80. Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?: No79%Fri 1 Jan
  81. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro81%Mon 5 Oct
  82. Ceará Governor Election Winner: Elmano de Freitas50%Sun 4 Oct
  83. US x China tariff agreement by December 31?: Yes91%Fri 1 Jan
  84. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes80%Mon 5 Oct
  85. Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?: No74%Thu 31 Dec
  86. Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  87. Will Israel attack Iraq in September 2026?: No98%Wed 30 Sept
  88. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?: OpenAI67%Wed 30 Sept
  89. Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco66%Sun 4 Oct
  90. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September?: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  91. Will Trump win Nobel Piss Prize 2026? [Read description]: Yes86%Fri 16 Oct
  92. Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026?: Yes82%Thu 1 Oct
  93. Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner: Pam Alexis54%Sat 26 Sept
  94. Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?: No98%Wed 30 Sept
  95. Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?: Anthropic68%Wed 30 Sept
  96. Next Claude Opus released on...?: September 2276%Wed 23 Sept
  97. Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% in September?: No79%Wed 30 Sept
  98. Central Bank of Colombia decision in September: No change63%Wed 30 Sept
  99. Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of September?: Google79%Wed 30 Sept
  100. Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September: 25 bps increase95%Tue 29 Sept
  101. Will OpenAI keep the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026?: No91%Fri 25 Sept
  102. Bank of Mexico Decision in September?: No change97%Thu 24 Sept
  103. Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics?: Yes86%Sat 17 Oct
  104. Kraków Mayoral Election Winner: Łukasz Gibała74%Sun 27 Sept
  105. When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?: October 12–October 1842%Sun 27 Sept
  106. Bank of Israel Decision in October?: No Change79%Wed 21 Oct
  107. Gowers releases point-and-click structured motivated proof software in one year?: No93%Fri 25 Sept
  108. Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?: Alibaba95%Thu 1 Oct
  109. What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?: Why Did I Get Married Again?96%Tue 22 Sept
  110. Donald Trump # Truth Social posts September 15 - September 22, 2026?: 100-11937%Tue 22 Sept
  111. Swiss National Bank decision in September?: No Change100%Thu 24 Sept
  112. Is the Susan Collins Polling Rumour true?: Yes71%Tue 22 Sept
  113. What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?: Crew Girl: Season 198%Tue 22 Sept
  114. Khamenei # posts September 15 - September 22, 2026?: <595%Tue 22 Sept
  115. Will NVDA own >1% of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corp at EOY 2026?: Yes70%Wed 23 Sept
  116. "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office: 22m+50%Sun 27 Sept
  117. NYC Mayor # posts September 15 - September 22, 2026?: 20-3995%Tue 22 Sept
  118. Will "Primetime" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: No65%Mon 28 Sept
  119. What will be the top global Netflix show this week?: Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story98%Tue 22 Sept
  120. What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?: Why Did I Get Married Again?97%Tue 22 Sept
  121. Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 15 million views this week?: No98%Tue 22 Sept
  122. What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?: The Whisper Man99%Tue 22 Sept
  123. What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?: The Seemingly Perfect Family98%Tue 22 Sept
  124. Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 24?: Yes89%Fri 25 Sept
  125. Reggio di Calabria By-Election Winner: Fabio Roscioli80%Mon 28 Sept
  126. What will be the #2 global Netflix show this week?: Crew Girl: Season 199%Tue 22 Sept
  127. Will the #1 global Netflix show have at least 20 million views this week?: No97%Tue 22 Sept
  128. Will "Forgotten Island" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: Yes72%Mon 28 Sept
  129. Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on...?: On or prior to September 228%Tue 22 Sept
  130. "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office: 17-20m46%Sun 27 Sept
  131. "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office: 25m+34%Sun 27 Sept
  132. Will "OpenAI" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 21?: No70%Sun 27 Sept
  133. What will be the top US Netflix show this week?: Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story98%Tue 22 Sept
  134. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro56%Sun 4 Oct
  135. California Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra92%Tue 3 Nov
  136. Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?: No92%Wed 4 Nov
  137. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No94%Sat 31 Oct
  138. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No59%Sat 3 Oct
  139. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Harry Kane52%Sat 31 Oct
  140. Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?: Yes56%Wed 4 Nov
  141. Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?: Yes67%Tue 3 Nov
  142. Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?: No71%Tue 3 Nov
  143. Will WW3 happen before GTA6?: No95%Wed 18 Nov
  144. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)97%Thu 31 Dec
  145. Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No93%Fri 1 Jan
  146. Fed Decision in October?: 25 bps increase52%Wed 28 Oct
  147. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3084%Thu 1 Oct
  148. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  149. Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?: Yes74%Wed 4 Nov
  150. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro69%Sun 4 Oct
  151. Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?: No60%Wed 4 Nov
  152. Opus 5.2 released in September?: No98%Wed 30 Sept
  153. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  154. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  155. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes91%Fri 2 Oct
  156. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  157. Venezuela leader end of 2026?: Nicolás Maduro52%Thu 31 Dec
  158. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  159. F1 Drivers' Champion: Kimi Antonelli91%Sun 6 Dec
  160. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  161. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  162. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic97%Thu 1 Oct
  163. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  164. If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?: No88%Tue 3 Nov
  165. Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?: Yes69%Tue 3 Nov
  166. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  167. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  168. Will The Odyssey gross more than Spider-Man: Brand New Day at the domestic box office every single day from Sept 14–30?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  169. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  170. What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: 4.25%49%Wed 9 Dec
  171. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: No94%Fri 1 Jan
  172. Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?: No93%Sun 29 Nov
  173. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  174. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  175. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  176. Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?: No96%Thu 12 Nov
  177. Trump out as President by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  178. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  179. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  180. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  181. IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?: Yes61%Tue 3 Nov
  182. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  183. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  184. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  185. Xi Jinping out before 2027?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  186. Will Democrats win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election? (Kalshi): No87%Tue 3 Nov
  187. Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?: No99%Wed 4 Nov
  188. Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No99%Fri 1 Jan
  189. Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  190. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?: No96%Fri 1 Jan
  191. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  192. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  193. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?: No81%Fri 1 Jan
  194. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  195. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No91%Thu 1 Oct
  196. T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?: No65%Mon 30 Nov
  197. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  198. Will Matt Gaetz become the next Governor of Florida in 2026?: No99%Thu 26 Nov
  199. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers29%Sat 31 Oct
  200. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  201. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No86%Wed 30 Sept
  202. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: No73%Sun 27 Sept
  203. Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?: No97%Fri 1 Jan
  204. MLS Cup Winner 2026: Nashville SC19%Sat 19 Dec
  205. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  206. Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?: Yes61%Mon 23 Nov
  207. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes92%Wed 14 Oct
  208. Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September?: No91%Thu 1 Oct
  209. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 22?: No91%Tue 22 Sept
  210. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  211. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  212. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  213. Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA75%Thu 31 Dec
  214. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes86%Wed 30 Sept
  215. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No95%Mon 2 Nov
  216. Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  217. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: Anthropic58%Thu 31 Dec
  218. Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026?: No83%Tue 29 Sept
  219. Anthropic IPO in October?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  220. Iran full airspace closure by September 30?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  221. US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  222. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?: No68%Fri 1 Jan
  223. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  224. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No98%Fri 1 Jan
  225. Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No100%Fri 1 Jan
  226. Will a non-MF group be proved this month?: Yes83%Wed 28 Oct
  227. US recession by end of 2026?: No95%Sun 31 Jan
  228. Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day96%Thu 31 Dec
  229. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No72%Tue 6 Oct
  230. Will Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?: No94%Wed 30 Sept
  231. Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: No90%Mon 4 Jan
  232. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes90%Wed 14 Oct
  233. If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?: Yes69%Mon 30 Nov
  234. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  235. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?: No92%Fri 1 Jan
  236. US strike on Cuba by December 31?: No86%Fri 1 Jan
  237. Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?: No91%Fri 1 Jan
  238. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No66%Tue 13 Oct
  239. 🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️‍⚧️✨: No77%Mon 2 Nov
  240. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: No65%Sun 1 Nov
  241. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  242. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro51%Fri 2 Oct
  243. Will California elect a Republican governor in 2026?: No97%Tue 3 Nov
  244. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No58%Fri 1 Jan
  245. Will Shohei Ohtani hit at least 43 home runs in 2026?: No99%Sun 27 Sept
  246. Will Seth Bodnar win Montanas Senate Election?: No91%Tue 3 Nov
  247. Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece: No67%Sat 3 Oct
  248. Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?: No90%Fri 1 Jan
  249. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Renan Santos52%Sun 4 Oct
  250. Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?: No69%Fri 6 Nov
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within six months, then reported as though they already had.