AHEAD OF PRINT

The six months ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Saturday, 12 September 2026
Edition of Thursday, 11 March 2027

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sat 12 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within six months — by Thursday, 11 March 2027.

World

Netanyahu lost election as Israel limited strikes to five countries

The ceasefire with Iran held until the end of October.

73% certain
lead market 73%next 27%1 venuesettles Sat 31 Oct3 markets behind this

Israel's military actions in 2026 were confined to five nations, a reduction from earlier expectations. The country also maintained its ceasefire with Iran through the final day of October. In the domestic arena, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was defeated in the November election.

The five nations targeted by Israeli strikes were documented in the annual defense summary. No additional countries were engaged in combat operations during the year. The count remained at five throughout 2026.

The ceasefire between Israel and Iran persisted without interruption until 31 October. No violations were recorded during that period. The agreement remained in effect, and no direct clashes occurred between the two states.

The national election took place on 10 November. Voters rejected Netanyahu's bid for another term. A new government assumed power following the result.

Analysis

Netanyahu's electoral defeat ends his tenure as prime minister and introduces a new governing coalition.

Limiting strikes to five countries represents a contraction of Israel's offensive footprint in 2026.

The Iran-Israel ceasefire lasting through 31 October prevented direct hostilities between the two states for most of the year. Maintaining the truce may have contributed to regional stability, yet any future developments will depend on how both parties manage lingering tensions.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 5, 79% settles Friday, 1 January 2027 · polymarket · see the market
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes, 73% settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will Netanyahu win the next elections in Israel?: No, 82% settles Tuesday, 10 November 2026 · manifold · see the market
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