Crypto
Bitcoin closed 2026 at $75,000, missing $1 million target
The cryptocurrency ended the year at $75,000 while the S&P 500 outperformed it.
Friday, 1 January 2027
42%
certain
lead market 42%next 42%1 venuesettles Thu 31 Dec22 markets behind this
Bitcoin finished 2026 at $75,000. Over the same period the S&P 500 delivered higher returns, leaving the cryptocurrency behind.
Throughout the year Bitcoin never breached the $100,000 mark. By the close of October the price remained below that threshold.
The year also saw Bitcoin fail to set a new all-time high. The price never approached the record levels recorded in prior cycles. As a result the $1 million benchmark projected for year-end remained unattained.
No transaction attributed to the pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto occurred in 2026. The blockchain showed zero movement of any coins linked to that address. This continued absence reinforced the perception of a dormant founder.
Compared with equities, Bitcoin's return lagged behind the S&P 500's performance. Investors observed the divergence as the index posted gains while the cryptocurrency slipped to $75,000.
Analysis
Missing the high-price targets signaled that investor optimism for Bitcoin was restrained during 2026.
Bitcoin's underperformance relative to the S&P 500 points to a broader shift in capital allocation. While equities benefited from macroeconomic conditions that favored traditional assets, the cryptocurrency sector may have struggled with regulatory uncertainty or reduced appetite for high-volatility holdings.
The absence of any movement from Satoshi's address throughout the year carried symbolic weight.
The combined effect of modest price action, lack of new records, and lagging behind equities may shape future strategy for participants in the crypto space. Stakeholders might prioritize infrastructure development, regulatory compliance, or diversification as they adapt to an environment where digital assets no longer guarantee outsized returns.
What this was built from
Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?: No, 93%
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Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?: No, 99%
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Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: No, 97%
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Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?: No, 100%
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Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?: No, 97%
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Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?: No, 66%
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Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?: No, 99%
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Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?: Yes, 59%
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Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?: No, 91%
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Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?: No, 94%
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Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?: No, 91%
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Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?: No, 84%
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Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?: No, 100%
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Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?: No, 97%
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Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?: No, 96%
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Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?: No, 97%
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Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?: No, 99%
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Which price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: 75,000, 42%
settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 · futuur · see the market
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?: No, 98%
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Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?: No, 53%
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Bitcoin price reaches 100k USD by the end of October: No, 88%
settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 · manifold · see the market
Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026: S&P 500, 57%
settles Friday, 1 January 2027 · polymarket · see the market
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