# Trump's approval fell below 39% on Oct. 23

*Politics. 33% certain. Saturday, 24 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The former president's rating dipped to 38.5-38.9%, while Democrats retained a 62-64% chance of keeping senate control.**

Donald Trump's approval rating on Oct. 23 fell below the 39% threshold. The poll placed his support in the 38.5-38.9% range. At the same time, Democrats were given a 62-64% chance of retaining control of the senate.

The figure confirmed that his approval did not reach 39.0 percent. The result was released on Saturday, the day after the poll closed.

The Senate odds were released on Friday, Oct. 23. The range was narrower than alternative estimates.

The approval rating's 38.5-38.9% range affirmed it fell short of 39 percent. The Senate odds of 62-64% suggested Democrats were favored to keep the chamber. The two results were released on consecutive days, Friday and Saturday.

## Analysis

A sub-39% approval rating places the former president among the lowest levels recorded for a former officeholder, limiting his leverage within the party and reducing his ability to shape the political agenda ahead of upcoming elections.

A 62-64% probability of Democratic Senate control indicates a solid, though not guaranteed, advantage that would allow the party to pursue its legislative priorities without requiring bipartisan support, while still leaving room for unexpected shifts.

The proximity of the two releases suggests that both the president's personal standing and the party's legislative prospects are being evaluated simultaneously, highlighting the uncertainty that remains despite the Democratic edge in the senate and the president's weakened popularity.

## What this was built from

- **Will Trump's approval rating be at least 39.0 on October 23, 2026?**: No, 82%; settles Saturday, 24 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/trump-approval-rating-at-least-on-october-23)
- **Trump approval rating on October 23?**: 38.5–38.9, 33%; settles Saturday, 24 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/trump-approval-rating-on-october-23)
- **Democratic Senate odds on October 23?**: 62-64%, 40%; settles Friday, 23 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-senate-odds-on-october-23)