# Trump won, but US avoided new wars and NATO stay

*World. 65% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The right also positioned itself as the pro-AI camp in the cultural debate.**

Donald Trump secured the presidency in the 2026 election. After the victory, the United States refrained from launching any new wars and kept its commitments to existing alliances. At the same time, the political right presented itself as the leading advocate for artificial intelligence in the ongoing cultural debate.

The administration did not issue a formal declaration of war against Iran by the end of 2026. Military operations against Iranian territory were also absent, and no invasion took place before the start of 2027. These choices left the bilateral relationship unchanged in terms of active conflict.

The United States maintained its membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization throughout 2026. No public announcement was made to withdraw from the alliance before the midterm elections. NATO cooperation continued without interruption.

In Ukraine, hostilities persisted through the 2026 midterm period. A ceasefire was not achieved before the elections, and fighting continued on the front lines. The conflict remained a focal point of international attention.

Cultural discussions over artificial intelligence positioned the political right as the primary supporter of AI development. The right framed AI as essential to economic competitiveness and national security. This stance contrasted with the left's more cautious approach to the technology.

## Analysis

Trump's election did not translate into a shift toward large-scale military engagement. By avoiding declarations of war and invasions, the administration signaled a preference for restraint that diverges from the more aggressive rhetoric often associated with his campaign. This restraint may preserve diplomatic channels and reduce the risk of escalation in volatile regions.

The decision not to confront Iran militarily kept a potential flashpoint dormant. Without a war declaration or invasion, both sides avoided the economic sanctions and military spending that accompany open conflict. However, the underlying tensions that prompted the possibility of war remain unresolved, leaving room for future diplomatic or covert competition.

Staying in NATO reinforced the United States' commitment to collective defense, a cornerstone of post-World War II security architecture. The absence of a withdrawal announcement helped maintain alliance cohesion ahead of the midterms, limiting doubts among European partners about U.S. reliability. Nonetheless, the alliance continues to face internal debates over burden-sharing and strategic priorities.

By aligning AI advocacy with conservative values such as economic growth and national security, the right gained a new policy platform that could influence legislation and funding. The left's more cautious stance may lead to partisan splits over regulation, research priorities, and the societal impacts of AI.

## What this was built from

- **If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?**: No, 93%; settles Wednesday, 4 November 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Arky/if-trump-is-elected-will-there-be-a-40ca39e5dcec)
- **Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?**: No, 86%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027)
- **If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side?**: Yes, 65%; settles Monday, 30 November 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/MGG/if-the-leftright-culture-war-comes-1cc8384e933c)
- **Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?**: No, 97%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-by)
- **Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?**: No, 94%; settles Monday, 2 November 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JeffBerman/will-trump-announce-before-the-midt)