# Democrats won control of house and senate in 2026 midterms

*Politics. 61% certain. Monday, 4 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Trump remained president and faced no impeachment.**

Democrats secured majorities in both the house of Representatives and the senate in the 2026 midterm elections. The victories gave the party control of Congress for the first time since the previous cycle. President Donald Trump remained in office and faced no impeachment proceedings.

The House races concluded on November 15, when Democrats won a majority of the 435 seats. The result reversed the Republican hold that had persisted in the lower chamber.

In the senate, Republicans failed to retain a majority, and Democrats emerged as the controlling party. The shift was confirmed on December 1, when the final tally showed Democrats holding more seats. Control of both chambers places the party in a position to advance its policy priorities.

The House did not move to impeach Trump during the 2026 session. No articles of impeachment were introduced, and the matter did not reach a vote. Additionally, Trump did not issue a national emergency claiming election interference before the year ended.

Throughout 2026, Trump's approval rating never fell to 35 percent. Polling indicated the threshold was not reached at any point during the year. Despite the electoral setbacks for his party, Trump continued to serve as president into 2027.

## Analysis

A Democratic Congress paired with a Trump presidency creates a rare split-government scenario. With both legislative chambers under one party, the administration faces heightened scrutiny and the need to negotiate on policy and budget matters.

The unified Democratic majority enables the party to advance its legislative agenda without intra-chamber opposition, but any bills must still clear a presidential veto. This dynamic may force Democrats to prioritize measures with broader bipartisan appeal or to seek compromises with the executive branch.

Even though the house held the power to impeach, it chose not to pursue articles against Trump in 2026. The decision suggests either strategic restraint or calculations about the political costs of a high-profile impeachment attempt in a divided government.

Trump's approval rating staying above the 35-percent mark indicates a remaining base of support, which helped sustain his political relevance despite congressional losses. The Republican setbacks in both chambers may prompt the party to reassess its electoral strategy ahead of the next presidential contest.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [If Democrats Win Control of Congress in the Midterms, Will They Impeach Trump a Third Time? | Common Dreams](https://www.commondreams.org/news/trump-impeachment-vote-2026)
- [House Democrats plan vast oversight of Trump administration. Impeachment is an option | PBS News](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/house-democrats-plan-vast-oversight-of-trump-administration-impeachment-is-an-option)
- [Efforts to impeach Donald Trump - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efforts_to_impeach_Donald_Trump)
- [What happens if Trump, GOP lose 2026 midterms?](https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/2026/09/25/what-happens-if-trump-loses-the-midterms-congress-impeachment-investigations/91938172007/)
- [Party Breakdown | House Press Gallery](https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown)
- [2026 CPR House Race ratings | Cook Political Report](https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings)

## What this was built from

- **Trump out as President before 2027?**: No, 96%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/trump-out-as-president-before-2027)
- **Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?**: No, 65%; settles Tuesday, 1 December 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/will-republicans-win-the-senate-in-738388924521)
- **Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?**: Yes, 61%; settles Tuesday, 1 December 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/deleted007/will-democrats-control-both-the-hou-h5pyQIsQOU)
- **Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?**: Yes, 94%; settles Sunday, 15 November 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/will-the-democrats-win-a-majority-i-ClQ6g6lntn)
- **Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?**: No, 93%; settles Sunday, 15 November 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/will-the-republicans-win-a-majority)
- **Wil Trump be impeached by the House in 2026?**: No, 98%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/wil-trump-be-impeached-by-the-house-ORIc658Qpc)
- **Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?**: No, 78%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/trump-declares-election-interference-national-emergency)
- **Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?**: No, 78%; settles Monday, 4 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-trumps-approval-rating-go-in-2026)