# U.S. Q3 GDP grew at least 3% as inflation eased

*Economics. 38% certain. Wednesday, 11 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**October inflation fell to 3.7% and Unemployment held at 4.2%.**

The United States posted strong economic performance in the third quarter of 2026. Gross domestic product expanded by at least 3.0%, while consumer prices rose at an annual 3.7% rate in October.

GDP figures were released on Friday 30 October and confirmed growth of at least 3.0% for Q3. This result exceeded the lower bound of the 2.5, 3.0% range previously considered. The measurement covered the period ending in September.

Inflation data were published on Wednesday 11 November, showing an annual rate of 3.7% for October. The number was lower than the alternative estimates of 3.8% to 4.0% that had been discussed. The reading indicated that price pressures remained moderate across the economy.

The Unemployment rate for October was released on Friday 6 November at 4.2%. This figure matched the central estimate and was higher than the 4.1% alternative but lower than 4.3%.

## Analysis

The data give policymakers a clearer view of current conditions as they consider the balance between supporting growth and containing price pressures.

However, the exact pace of growth in the next quarter remains uncertain, and any reversal could alter the outlook for both public and private sector spending.

The 3.7% annual inflation rate keeps price growth below the higher thresholds that often trigger aggressive monetary tightening, potentially allowing the Federal Reserve to hold or modestly ease policy. Yet, external shocks such as energy price volatility or global demand shifts could push inflation higher, leaving room for policy adjustment.

## What this was built from

- **US GDP growth in Q3 2026?**: ≥3.0%, 70%; settles Friday, 30 October 2026 (polymarket, futuur). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-gdp-growth-in-q3-2026-20260730144539767)
- **October Inflation US - Annual**: 3.7%, 83%; settles Wednesday, 11 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/october-inflation-us-annual)
- **October Unemployment Rate**: 4.2%, 38%; settles Friday, 6 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/october-unemployment-rate-2026)