# U.S. did not acquire Greenland in 2026

*World. 97% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The United States neither secured any part of Greenland nor launched an invasion in 2026.**

The United States' effort to obtain Greenland ended without success in 2026. Neither a purchase nor any other form of acquisition was completed. The initiative concluded before the start of 2027.

President Trump's proposal to buy Greenland never materialized. Negotiations or agreements were not reached during the year. As a result, the United States did not secure any portion of the territory.

A planned military incursion into Greenland was not carried out in 2026. No U.S. forces entered Danish territory that year. The invasion scenario remained unrealized.

Similarly, the notion of annexing part of Greenland did not come to pass. No area of the island was transferred to U.S. control. The United States left Greenland entirely unchanged.

## Analysis

Domestically, the outcome undercuts a high-profile element of former President Trump's agenda, signaling that ambitious territorial proposals face substantial diplomatic and practical barriers, and may affect his political capital among supporters who favored assertive foreign policy moves.

Looking ahead, the United States will need to pursue alternative avenues for Arctic engagement, such as partnership agreements or increased presence through existing bases, but any future attempt to alter Greenland's status will confront the same legal, diplomatic and logistical obstacles that halted the 2026 efforts.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Proposed United States acquisition of Greenland - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_acquisition_of_Greenland)
- [Greenland crisis - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_crisis)
- [Greenland: A timeline of Trump's interest in US acquisition | AP News](https://apnews.com/article/trump-greenland-denmark-timeline-b32ca9f63dd31333c1d6e64fb3d6403e)
- [From ‘absurd’ offer to military threats: How Donald Trump’s bid for Greenland unfolded | The Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-greenland-denmark-timeline-acquisition-b3054078.html)

## What this was built from

- **Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?**: No, 98%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027)
- **Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?**: No, 97%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-acquire-any-part-of-greenland-in-2026)
- **Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?**: No, 98%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-greenland-in-2026)