# US and China completed comprehensive tariff deal by year end

*Economics. 74% certain. Sunday, 31 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**China recorded 4-5% Growth in 2026 and the 10-year Treasury yield remained under 5.2%.**

The United States and China finalized a comprehensive tariff agreement before the end of 2026. Chinese authorities reported annual GDP Growth of between 4.0% and 5.0% for 2026. During the same year the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield never rose to 5.2%. These outcomes coincided with a relatively stable yield curve.

The deal, sealed on December 31, was described as comprehensive, covering the remaining tariff measures between the two economies. Both sides indicated that the agreement would lift the trade barriers that had been in place for several years. Implementation steps were set to begin in early 2027.

The performance suggested resilience despite ongoing global headwinds. It also provided a modest boost to the country's export sector.

The 10-year Treasury yield staying below 5.2% signaled that the yield curve remained stable through 2026. A stable curve has often been associated with predictable financing conditions for businesses and households. It also reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to adjust short-term rates sharply.

## Analysis

The tariff agreement removes the remaining trade barriers that have constrained bilateral commerce, potentially allowing firms in both countries to restore supply-chain links and lower costs. With tariffs lifted, exporters may increase volumes, while import-dependent industries could benefit from cheaper inputs. The broader effect on global trade balances will depend on how quickly businesses adjust to the new terms.

China's Growth rate of 4-5% indicates a moderate expansion that keeps the economy on a steady, if not rapid, trajectory.

This stability can help borrowers and investors plan with greater certainty, limiting the need for abrupt policy shifts by the Federal Reserve. Nevertheless, the curve's shape will continue to be monitored for signs of changing economic conditions.

## What this was built from

- **US x China tariff agreement by December 31?**: Yes, 91%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-china-tariff-agreement-by-december-31)
- **China Annual GDP Growth 2026**: 4.0–5.0%, 93%; settles Sunday, 31 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/china-annual-gdp-growth-2026)
- **Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?**: No, 74%; settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-before-2027)