# House failed to impeach Trump in 2026

*Politics. 91% certain. Monday, 4 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Trump's approval stayed under 35% and he did not endorse Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado.**

Former President Donald Trump remained politically sidelined throughout 2026. The House of Representatives did not impeach him, his national approval rating never rose above 35 percent, and he offered no endorsement to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado. These three developments left him without formal censure, broad public support, or a foreign-policy role.

Congress considered impeachment articles against Trump during the early months of the year. On Friday, 1 January, the house voted against the measures, ending the effort without a formal charge.

Polling throughout 2026 showed Trump's approval hovering below the 35 percent threshold. The final assessment on Monday, 4 January confirmed the rating never reached that level. The sustained low figure contrasted with higher numbers he had previously enjoyed.

Speculation arose about a possible Trump endorsement of María Corina Machado in Venezuela's presidential race. On Friday, 1 January, no public statement or campaign support materialized. The absence of endorsement kept Trump disengaged from that foreign opposition effort.

## Analysis

Coupled with an approval rating that stayed under 35 percent, his capacity to command a sizable voter base appears limited. Together these factors suggest a marginal role in domestic partisan calculations.

Within the Republican Party, the impeachment outcome and weak public support may curtail Trump's ability to shape candidate selections or policy agendas. Party leaders may find it easier to distance themselves from his brand, while still gauging the residual loyalty of his core supporters. The balance of power thus tilts toward figures who can claim broader electoral appeal.

This leaves the opposition without a high-profile American ally and may affect the calculus of other foreign actors considering support. The longer-term effect on U.S. influence in the region remains uncertain.

## What this was built from

- **Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?**: No, 91%; settles Monday, 4 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-trumps-approval-rating-go-in-2026)
- **Wil Trump be impeached by the House in 2026?**: No, 98%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/wil-trump-be-impeached-by-the-house-ORIc658Qpc)
- **Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?**: No, 96%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-endorse-mara-corina-machado-for-venezuela-president-in-2026-314)