# SpaceX launched five to six Starships in 2026

*Science. 53% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The company also kept its shares above $100 all year and denied any merger with Tesla.**

In 2026 SpaceX launched five to six Starship vehicles into space. Its shares never fell below $100 during the year. No merger between SpaceX and Tesla was announced by the end of the year.

The fleet of Starships achieved orbit in a series of missions throughout the calendar year. The launches demonstrated the company's continued progress toward its reusable launch system.

SpaceX's publicly traded shares remained above the $100 threshold for the entire 2026 period. The share level closed the year unchanged relative to the $100 benchmark.

Rumors linking SpaceX with Tesla continued to circulate during the year. However, no formal merger agreement was disclosed by December 31. The companies remained separate entities as of the year's end.

## Analysis

The five to six Starship flights indicate that SpaceX maintained a cadence of high-performance launches, suggesting the hardware and operational processes are reaching a level of reliability needed for larger missions such as lunar or Mars endeavors.

The share price staying above $100 throughout 2026 shows that investors did not penalize the company for the merger speculation, implying confidence in its core business and revenue streams despite the absence of a formal partnership with Tesla.

## What this was built from

- **How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?**: 5-6, 53%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2026)
- **Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $100 by the end of 2026?**: No, 84%; settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/sama/will-spacex-spcx-stock-drop-below-1)
- **Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?**: No, 86%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/tesla-and-spacex-merger-officially-announced-by-june-30)