# Iranian, Cuban regimes stayed in power and Hormuz traffic stayed disrupted

*World|Politics. 80% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Hamas also refused to disarm, keeping its armed stance unchanged.**

On Friday 1 January, the Iranian regime remained in power. The Cuban regime also stayed in power. Hamas did not agree to disarm by the end of the year. Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz failed to return to normal by 31 December.

The Iranian authorities continued their governance without interruption. The Cuban leadership likewise maintained its control throughout 2026. Both regimes showed no signs of collapse as of the latest assessment.

Hamas persisted in retaining its weapons. No disarmament agreement was reached before the year closed. The group kept its armed posture unchanged.

Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained below pre-crisis levels. Shipping lanes did not resume normal volumes by 31 December. The disruption persisted through the year's end.

No regime change or traffic normalization occurred during 2026. The status quo persisted into 2027.

## Analysis

The continuation of the Iranian and Cuban regimes indicates political continuity in two long-standing governments. Without a change in leadership, existing policies and alliances are likely to persist, limiting opportunities for rapid reform or external pressure to alter internal dynamics. However, internal dissent and external sanctions remain variables that could influence future stability.

Hamas' refusal to disarm maintains its capacity to influence the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The absence of a disarmament agreement means that militant capabilities remain a factor in any security calculations in the region. Future negotiations will have to address this unchanged stance, though the prospects for reaching such an agreement remain uncertain.

The failure of Strait of Hormuz traffic to normalize sustains a bottleneck in one of the world's key oil transit routes. Continued disruption can elevate shipping costs and affect global oil prices, pressuring economies dependent on steady energy supplies. Restoration of normal traffic will depend on broader geopolitical developments that have yet to materialize.

## What this was built from

- **Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?**: No, 94%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026)
- **Cuban regime falls in 2026?**: No, 90%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/cuban-regime-falls-in-2026)
- **Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?**: No, 87%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31)
- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?**: No, 80%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31)