# Parti Québécois won Quebec election, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon became Premier

*Politics. 83% certain. Monday, 5 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The PQ secured a majority and ruled out a sovereignty referendum for the next term.**

The Parti Québécois won the 2026 Quebec general election on Monday, 5 October. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon was sworn in as Premier following the party's victory. A proposed sovereignty referendum was ruled out for the upcoming provincial term.

The party secured enough seats to command a majority in the National Assembly. Consequently, the Premier's office passed to Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the PQ leader, assumed the premiership on Monday. He became Premier as a result of the election outcome. The transition occurred without delay.

Authorities announced that no vote on Quebec sovereignty would be held during the next term. The ruling removed the prospect of a referendum from the legislative calendar.

## Analysis

With Paul St-Pierre Plamondon at the helm, the administration will steer the agenda for the coming term, affecting areas such as language law, economic development, and relations with Ottawa.

By ruling out a vote on independence, the government reduces immediate pressure on federal-provincial negotiations and may temper separatist activism, at least temporarily.

Uncertainty remains over how the PQ will implement its priorities without a referendum to rally supporters. The federal government's response to the new provincial leadership will shape intergovernmental dynamics, and the party's ability to maintain cohesion without a sovereignty question could affect its long-term prospects.

## What this was built from

- **Quebec General Election Winner**: PQ, 84%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/quebec-general-election-winner)
- **Next Premier of Quebec**: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, 83%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-premier-of-quebec-594)
- **Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?**: No, 85%; settles Saturday, 3 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-there-be-a-quebec-referendum-i)