# Parti Québécois won election, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon became Premier

*Politics. 71% certain. Monday, 5 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The party's victory also ended plans for a referendum in the next term.**

The Parti Québécois secured a victory in the Quebec provincial election held on Monday, 5 October. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon was named Premier following the win. A decision made two days earlier ruled out any referendum in the next provincial term.

The election concluded on Monday, 5 October with the Parti Québécois receiving the most votes. Voters chose the PQ over competing parties.

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon was appointed Premier on Monday, 5 October. His appointment corresponded with the PQ's electoral success.

The announcement removed the prospect of a sovereignty vote during the forthcoming mandate. The decision was logged on that day.

## Analysis

The PQ's return to power revives the sovereigntist agenda, but the explicit ruling out of a referendum for the next term constrains any immediate push for a vote on independence. This limits the party's ability to deliver on its core promise of a popular consultation on Quebec's status, redirecting focus toward other policy areas while keeping the question alive for future legislatures.

With Paul St-Pierre Plamondon at the helm, the provincial government now faces the task of translating the election mandate into legislative action. His leadership will shape the relationship with the federal government, especially on fiscal and linguistic matters, and will determine how the PQ balances its traditional platform with the practicalities of governing without a referendum on the horizon.

Uncertainty remains around how long the prohibition on a referendum will be upheld and whether future premiers might revisit the issue. The PQ will need to manage internal expectations and external pressures while navigating a term that lacks a clear path to a sovereignty vote, making policy choices and political alliances critical to its long-term strategy.

## What this was built from

- **Quebec General Election Winner**: PQ, 73%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/quebec-general-election-winner)
- **Next Premier of Quebec**: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, 71%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-premier-of-quebec-594)
- **Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?**: No, 85%; settles Saturday, 3 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-there-be-a-quebec-referendum-i)