# Parti Québécois won Quebec election, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon became Premier

*Politics. 77% certain. Monday, 5 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The PQ secured a majority, installing Paul St-Pierre Plamondon as Premier and ruling out a sovereignty referendum this term.**

Quebec held its provincial election on Monday, 5 October 2026. The Parti Québécois emerged as the winner of the contest. Its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, was set to become Premier, and the incoming government announced that no sovereignty referendum would be scheduled for the term.

Authorities stated that a sovereignty referendum would not be scheduled for the term. The clarification affirmed that no referendum would occur during the upcoming legislative period.

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon was identified as the next Premier of Quebec. His designation followed the Parti Québécois' electoral victory.

The Parti Québécois won the provincial election. The victory occurred on Monday, 5 October 2026. The result established the governing party for the term.

## Analysis

The PQ's victory gives the party control of the provincial agenda, opening the possibility for shifts in language policy, fiscal priorities, and relations with the federal government. With a majority, the party can pass legislation aligned with its platform without reliance on opposition support.

It also signals to federal authorities that the province will not pursue a vote on independence during this legislative cycle.

Uncertainty remains about how the PQ will balance its traditional sovereigntist aspirations with the pledge to forego a referendum. Internal party dynamics, public opinion, and economic conditions could influence whether the no-referendum stance endures throughout the term.

## What this was built from

- **Quebec General Election Winner**: PQ, 83%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/quebec-general-election-winner)
- **Next Premier of Quebec**: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, 77%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-premier-of-quebec-594)
- **Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?**: No, 85%; settles Saturday, 3 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-there-be-a-quebec-referendum-i)